Over-agers - 2017 draft

[jjgallow]

Sometimes I wish we'd just pick up a bunch a 6th round picks, and/or set up a heck of a lot more training camp invites.     

 

Thought I'd make a thread on over-aged diamonds in the rough.

 

Can I start with Sean Durzi?    RH shot, highest scoring D in the OHL.,....by A Lot.......big enough.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=268973

 

[travel_dude]

4 hours ago, jjgallow said:

Sometimes I wish we'd just pick up a bunch a 6th round picks, and/or set up a heck of a lot more training camp invites.     

 

Thought I'd make a thread on over-aged diamonds in the rough.

 

Can I start with Sean Durzi?    RH shot, highest scoring D in the OHL.,....by A Lot.......big enough.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=268973

 

 

Have to ask.  Have you followed the player, watched his games or heard scouting reports about him?

 

Reason I ask is that overagers that excel in their last year sometimes only are able because they are playing younger guys and can dominate them physically.

Durzi had 2 goals last year and 12 in 24 this year.  Compare him to Gawdin.  From a pure numbers perspective, who do you think looks like he could become a NHL player at some point.

[jjgallow]

5 hours ago, travel_dude said:

Have to ask.  Have you followed the player, watched his games or heard scouting reports about him?

 

Reason I ask is that overagers that excel in their last year sometimes only are able because they are playing younger guys and can dominate them physically.

Durzi had 2 goals last year and 12 in 24 this year.  Compare him to Gawdin.  From a pure numbers perspective, who do you think looks like he could become a NHL player at some point.

 

Yes I have, to some extent, certainly not enough that I wouldn't want other's opinions who have seen him.

 

But to say "I, who have not seen this player, discount your opinion because I don't think you have seen this player (enough)", is not valid, imho.

 

Andrighetto, Mangiapane, Conacher, Mattias Janmark, are off the top of my head just a few of the players on here I either started threads on or actively suggested before they were either drafted (as over-agers) or signed.     And yes, lots more I suggested amounted to nothing.   Been doing it for long enough, that I would say about 1/3rd of the over-age players I advocate for become valuable NHL assets (and I'd like to think that's improving with time).

 

That fact is, these players are essentially free, and there is payoff.

 

To answer your question, I give Durzi the nod over Gawdin.    Because points-wise, considering their position, what Durzi is doing is vastly more outstanding, and he is showing a considerably higher imrprovement curve.   The Flames signed Gawdin not because he was the better prospect, but because they could, having given him a player tryout.     Don't get me wrong, I like both. 

 

To answer your last question directly, is simple:   Had we drafted Durzi last year, and he was performing this way now, he would likely be our top 2017 draft prospect.   Because he is performing that well.   Yes, he is an over-ager, as is everyone else playing in junior from the 2016 draft.   He's just playing better than 99% of the payers who were drafted.

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

But to say "I, who have not seen this player, discount your opinion because I don't think you have seen this player (enough)", is not valid, imho.

 

 

You say this without knowing if I know the player or not.  I simply asked you a question.  For all I know, you just do searches on un-drafted players.

That's why I asked.  Gawdin, according to some people, is the worst player on the best line in the CHL.

 

Not being insulting at all.  I just like to hear comments from people that actually watch the player day in day out. 

 

 

[jjgallow]

10 hours ago, travel_dude said:

Not being insulting at all.  I just like to hear comments from people that actually watch the player day in day out.

 

Well I don't work for the team, if that's what you want, nor do I live there.    I go heavy on stats.  Not every stat, not in every situation, and not in isolation.    They are a tool and I use them.   Both professionally and recreationally.

 

You are more than welcome to discount that, just be prepared to be wrong a lot when you discount it.     And yeah, right sometimes too.   There's a lot of awefully abused stats out there.   Assuming that stats are abused because said individuals don't work on the team or watch the player every game, that's a bit much.

[DirtyDeeds]

2 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

Well I don't work for the team, if that's what you want, nor do I live there.    I go heavy on stats.  Not every stat, not in every situation, and not in isolation.    They are a tool and I use them.   Both professionally and recreationally.

 

You are more than welcome to discount that, just be prepared to be wrong a lot when you discount it.     And yeah, right sometimes too.   There's a lot of awefully abused stats out there.   Assuming that stats are abused because said individuals don't work on the team or watch the player every game, that's a bit much.

Just to add some thoughts to yuor guy's discussion.

 

Stats are abused by people who don't know the proper impact of them.

 

Advanced stats are even worse. Those are just in their infancy unlike baseball advanced stats. Not only is the collection usually different depending on which arena they come from and who collects them,  the use differs from person to person.

 

For example:

It is said Calgary Saddledome are one of the hardest to get a recorded  shot on net. It was also stated the reason the Flames were one of the poorest teams for shots on net was because of the high number of games at home played so far.

 

If it is difficult to take a stat as consistent  when logged, how can you do comparisons between players who play half their games in a stingy arena with another arena who logs everything that might be close?

 

 

[jjgallow]

26 minutes ago, DirtyDeeds said:

Just to add some thoughts to yuor guy's discussion.

 

Stats are abused by people who don't know the proper impact of them.

 

Advanced stats are even worse. Those are just in their infancy unlike baseball advanced stats. Not only is the collection usually different depending on which arena they come from and who collects them,  the use differs from person to person.

 

For example:

It is said Calgary Saddledome are one of the hardest to get a recorded  shot on net. It was also stated the reason the Flames were one of the poorest teams for shots on net was because of the high number of games at home played so far.

 

If it is difficult to take a stat as consistent  when logged, how can you do comparisons between players who play half their games in a stingy arena with another arena who logs everything that might be close?

 

Advanced stats, for hockey, are for the most part a joke.  Like you say, they are in their infancy and that might chance.   But most of them were invented by people with little or no mathematical or statistical background with almost zero consideration given to their statistical significance or the logic in their assumptions of cause and effect.

 

All that said, I like this Sean Durzi.

 

And, I just put it on the goaltending thread, but I'd add Jeremy Brodeur to the list while I'm at it.

[travel_dude]

6 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

Well I don't work for the team, if that's what you want, nor do I live there.    I go heavy on stats.  Not every stat, not in every situation, and not in isolation.    They are a tool and I use them.   Both professionally and recreationally.

 

You are more than welcome to discount that, just be prepared to be wrong a lot when you discount it.     And yeah, right sometimes too.   There's a lot of awefully abused stats out there.   Assuming that stats are abused because said individuals don't work on the team or watch the player every game, that's a bit much.

 

I could care less if you work for the team.  I just wondered if you saw the guy play much.   Did you make up that last line?  Seems like you want to argue this until he proves you right.  I have no interest.

[jjgallow]

On 12/3/2017 at 5:32 PM, travel_dude said:

 

I could care less if you work for the team.  I just wondered if you saw the guy play much.   Did you make up that last line?  Seems like you want to argue this until he proves you right.  I have no interest.

 

Not about right or wrong, lots of over-agers have succeeded already, that's just a known fact.   Some listed in this thread.  Matters not whether this guy does.  Matters not that you're suspicious, rightly or wrongly.   You're welcome to think that, but time and time again on this forum over-agers have been brought up who ended up succeeding, and nobody had special info.  So that's where things already are.

 

I appreciate the disclaimer you provided that over-agers are older.   Now, most of us could have figured that out by the name "over-ager", but sure.  If for some reason someone missed that, or failed to take it into account, helpful.    

 

What I'm getting from your posts so far is that you have nothing to contribute about either player other than that you are suspicious of their good statistics (even though I am clearly comparing them to players of the same age).   Duly noted.

 

[DirtyDeeds]

Over agers.

 

If most NHLers take more time to develop after they are normally drafted and most NHLers are sent back to their Junior teams then why would anyone discount someone developing at a later age than another?

 

Many studies have been done with hockey players and the common thought is everyone develops and grows up at a different pace.

[Flyerfan52]

A # of years ago when the current Jets were still the Thrashers & the Moose were the feeder team for Vancouver (that put such a bad taste in my mouth) & Heisinger was the Moose GM he unearthed many gems in the raw. That doesn't happen much any more as teams keep an eye on the undrafted & invite them to camp to see what they are (that's how the Flyers added Phil Myers).

Then there's the added twist with college players. You can draft them with the expectation of having a more developed player when he decides to go pro but that too often happens when the rights expire & he can entertain offers.

With Euros you take the same chance. The best are already playing pro before they are 18 so unless they get the maximum ELC are already earning more than AHL wages.

 

As said by others players do develop @ different rates (why some are sent back to junior or spend time in the minors) but being a more physically mature 20/21 year old gives a player a big advantage in a teen aged league.

The pickings among the undrafted are slim. IMO the best bet is offering a tryout to see how they stack up against what we already have.

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, Flyerfan52 said:

The pickings among the undrafted are slim. IMO the best bet is offering a tryout to see how they stack up against what we already have.

 

So how does that work again, exactly?  I know we did it with Schneider, and more recently with Gawdin.

 

In these cases, can we give them a tryout right after their first draft year, and then sign them before there 2nd year of eligibility?    Do I have that right?

 

 

In the case of Sean Durzi, I feel that he will be drafted this year, just a matter of where.     

[Flyerfan52]

38 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

So how does that work again, exactly?  I know we did it with Schneider, and more recently with Gawdin.

 

In these cases, can we give them a tryout right after their first draft year, and then sign them before there 2nd year of eligibility?    Do I have that right?

 

 

In the case of Sean Durzi, I feel that he will be drafted this year, just a matter of where.     

Yes. It worked like that with Myers.

[DirtyDeeds]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

So how does that work again, exactly?  I know we did it with Schneider, and more recently with Gawdin.

 

In these cases, can we give them a tryout right after their first draft year, and then sign them before there 2nd year of eligibility?    Do I have that right?

 

 

In the case of Sean Durzi, I feel that he will be drafted this year, just a matter of where.     

If no one drafts a player in their draft year they remain free of any entanglements or obligation to any team. They can be offered a tryout. 

[cross16]

14 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

So how does that work again, exactly?  I know we did it with Schneider, and more recently with Gawdin.

 

In these cases, can we give them a tryout right after their first draft year, and then sign them before there 2nd year of eligibility?    Do I have that right? 

 

Sort of. Technically yes you are right the only stipulation is the contract needs to be signed before the player is sent back to junior. Once they are back in junior they are no longer eligible to be signed and will need to go back in the draft. Why players like Myers, Schendier, Jones etc sign during the camp and not when they are back at their clubs.

 

Gawdin was a slightly different case in that he was previously drafted and held on a reserve list. Blues didn't offer him a contract so because he was previously drafted and spent 2 years on a reserve list he becomes a free agent once he was not offered a contract.