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Crzy's 2016 Draft Rankings - December


Crzydrvr

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Cryzrdvr was curious as to your thoughts about Dillon Dube. Sounds like you like him based on your report but do you also see him as a guy on the rise? I admit I'm a Rockets fan so potentially biased but I feel like with the way he is trending he could be a top 25 or maybe top 20 pick by the tine the draft rolls around. Very well rounded player who I've had my eye on since the Memorial Cup and a guy I'd love for the flames to target.

 

Do I think he could be a top 20 or 25 pick? Absolutely, especially if he can continue his strong play so far. He's one of a number of players in that 3rd tier, and anyone in that group could conceivably rise or drop based on a team's needs or wants.

 

I don't like his chances of going in that range, partly because of his size, but he's also a great example of a player who just "gets" it. Dube knows where to go, he's an energy forward with a scorer's hockey sense. Good hands and overall ability, but his natural talents aren't really high, which in my mind just makes his ability to think and process the play that much more interesting. Makes mistakes like any young guy, but he's not a one-move player offensively and he has some defensive potential at the junior level.

 

At this point he could go either way. His lack of high-end skill will really hurt him as a smaller guy, and quite honestly opinions are mixed as to his ability to play at the pro level. It could very well be a case of "second-best" where he drops due to teams having other players they're enamored with. I think Dube is comparable to Nick Merkley as a prospect. Smallish forwards, good but not elite skaters and very good offensively. Merkley dropped despite an excellent year due to similar concerns over his projectability.

 

So at this point, I'm not really sure whether to classify him as a riser. It's very impressive what he's done so far this year. I might like him, but some NHL scouts, when they talk about him, will point to his weaknesses moreso than his strengths.

 

It's a slightly deeper draft at the top than usual, so if he drops to the early second round, someone is getting one heck of a steal.

 

EDIT: Basically, he's anywhere from mid-first to out of the first round entirely. There is very little separation from the 20 or so prospects that could go in that range in terms of ability, and teams will pick based on personal preference, so I'm not going to pretend I know what each team wants. That being said, there are guys who are extremely high on him too, moreso than guys who question his physical abilities and athleticism.

 

This is going to be a wild draft, because the players in each tier are basically indistinguishable from each other. There's going to be some major surprises come June IMO.

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London Knights...anyone else tired of them? lol

Chychrun: Sarnia was always a team of individuals, the new ownership is changing the mentality. Chychrun is developing better than he might have. You're right, he is the D anchor in Sarnia, but is a couple years away from developing leadership at his age. I expect he'll slide a bit as he takes development hits, and will be a bargain in the 5 to 8. Dmen slide, he likely is the best in the O, but I'm always left wanting more.

Keller at 5: loved the assessment. If you don't know he is a force, although small, hello. Best American in the draft after Matthews, by a fair bit. I'd use Gaudreau as a comparable.

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It's one tourney, don't romanticize it.

It's not that easy.

I didnt refer to the world juniors at all? Both those kids are already playing in the top finnish pro league, and are doing very good. I didnt state they would be ready next season or anything, just that our top 6 would be set for years to come which would be true with a good player like that whos a natural right wing.

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Chychrun: Sarnia was always a team of individuals, the new ownership is changing the mentality. Chychrun is developing better than he might have. You're right, he is the D anchor in Sarnia, but is a couple years away from developing leadership at his age. I expect he'll slide a bit as he takes development hits, and will be a bargain in the 5 to 8. Dmen slide, he likely is the best in the O, but I'm always left wanting more.

 

 

Last year Chychrun really had the green light to go out and play his game. That Sting team wasn't great and quite frankly, if he wasn't playing the way he was, they would have been quite a bit worse overall.

 

This year, the team is slightly stronger and definitely better balanced at the forward position (but not the defense), and what we've seen so far is a guy who could be the most dominant player on any given night but for whatever reason isn't. You see the talent is still there, but he doesn't take chances with the puck anymore, and that's a worrisome sign. I don't know if it's the coaches telling him to play it safe or whether he's just had issues with his shoulder that are causing him to play it safe, but you can tell that even though he can still skate and pass, he's not utilizing his speed or skills enough in order to back off opposition defenders.

 

A guy like that is easy to shut down offensively, and while Chychrun is still contributing in other ways, his numbers are suffering as a result. I compare him to a guy like T.J. Brodie, who has become absolutely incredible at using his speed and skill to back off defenders. Even when he doesn't have the puck, he's constantly drawing opposition attention because he's dangerous from anywhere on the ice, which opens up room for other players to do their thing. There's a reason why Brodie is an animal in terms of possession.

 

Chychrun being the last guy back means that his 5v5 offense is reliant on other players converting his still-excellent outlet passes, which with the still-not-impressive Sting team means that he's not going to put up the numbers he should. It doesn't help that he's the focal point of the defense and the breakout. Last year, he had DeAngelo to help him out most of the season and with Anthony's graduation is just puts more pressure on Chychrun.

 

At the very least, he's going to be very well-adjusted to the NHL coaching style. The mistakes he makes are because he's forced to cover for his teammates' errors, which will be less often at the NHL level. But the team is winning, so I doubt we'll see a change in his play this season unless he really turns it up a notch.

 

Someone is going to luck out because Sarnia's playing to win, and it's not Chychrun. Jakob's going to drop to a team that magically discovered a top pairing defenseman on the cheap.

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Last year Chychrun really had the green light to go out and play his game. That Sting team wasn't great and quite frankly, if he wasn't playing the way he was, they would have been quite a bit worse overall.

 

This year, the team is slightly stronger and definitely better balanced at the forward position (but not the defense), and what we've seen so far is a guy who could be the most dominant player on any given night but for whatever reason isn't. You see the talent is still there, but he doesn't take chances with the puck anymore, and that's a worrisome sign. I don't know if it's the coaches telling him to play it safe or whether he's just had issues with his shoulder that are causing him to play it safe, but you can tell that even though he can still skate and pass, he's not utilizing his speed or skills enough in order to back off opposition defenders.

 

A guy like that is easy to shut down offensively, and while Chychrun is still contributing in other ways, his numbers are suffering as a result. I compare him to a guy like T.J. Brodie, who has become absolutely incredible at using his speed and skill to back off defenders. Even when he doesn't have the puck, he's constantly drawing opposition attention because he's dangerous from anywhere on the ice, which opens up room for other players to do their thing. There's a reason why Brodie is an animal in terms of possession.

 

Chychrun being the last guy back means that his 5v5 offense is reliant on other players converting his still-excellent outlet passes, which with the still-not-impressive Sting team means that he's not going to put up the numbers he should. It doesn't help that he's the focal point of the defense and the breakout. Last year, he had DeAngelo to help him out most of the season and with Anthony's graduation is just puts more pressure on Chychrun.

 

At the very least, he's going to be very well-adjusted to the NHL coaching style. The mistakes he makes are because he's forced to cover for his teammates' errors, which will be less often at the NHL level. But the team is winning, so I doubt we'll see a change in his play this season unless he really turns it up a notch.

 

Someone is going to luck out because Sarnia's playing to win, and it's not Chychrun. Jakob's going to drop to a team that magically discovered a top pairing defenseman on the cheap.

I agree in him dropping, as Dmen have the last few years. He was not well coached (nor was the team) last year, but now he's doing a lot of things you want a top D man to do. Sarnia is winning on the formula of removing the "go out and just play your game" mentality. There is no development in that, DeAngelo was one of the worst, selfish Dmen I've seen, he doesn't play D, he just thought he's a scoring machine and chose not to pass nearly enough. No trust in his teammates. A farce on actually playing defence, one dimensional in every sense of the word, a total hog in the O zone.

Derian Hatcher has changed the entire dynamic, you win as a team, you lose as a team. That's how Chychrun and Zacha are really furthering their development right now imho. Zacha looked lost last year, as there really wasn't any defined structure to the team play.

Unending "green lights" sure hurt prospects when they go to the next level, imo. It turns into a lot of mistakes.

However scouts view his production levels makes no nevermind to me, dmen need to develop the D side first, that is something DeAngelo never did, and Chychrun is doing very well at now.

So while it may make him less shiny to "scouts", it'll prepare him better for the next level.

There will be a significant contrast between Chychrun and DeAngelo and even, say, Goldobin in developing at the next level.

Galchenyuk gets a pass because he had his father to help him. The rest of Sarnia's "development" prior isn't good. Even Reid Boucher(NJD) needed years to learn the next level because of Sarnia's previous lack of developing an actual team environment.

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Goalies to Watch: 

 

1.       G Carter Hart, Everett Silvertips (WHL)

2.       G Zach Sawchenko, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)

3.       G Joseph Woll, USA-U18s (USNTDP)

4.       G Vladislav Sukhachyov, Belye Medvedi Chelyabinsk (MHL)

5.       G Daniel Marmenlind, Orebro HK  (Swe-J20)

6.       G Evan Fitzpatrick, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL)

7.       G Ryan Edquist, Madison Capitols (USHL)

8.       G Tyler Parsons, London Knights (OHL)

9.       G Mikhail Berdin, Russia U18 (MHL)

10.     G Stephen Dhillon, Niagara IceDogs (OHL)

Did you forget Veini Vehvilainen? He is been a beast in SM-Liiga this year and solid working in WJC.

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Holy cow, can Michael McLeod fly. This kid has elite wheels. If he can figure out how to finish, watch out.

I haven't seen him in jr but in midget and U17 I was surprised he was just a perimeter player. A safe 3rd liner so-to-speak. He came with a lot of hype but I just didn't see it.

That was at 16yo though, but I expected dominant from what I'd heard/read, but he wasn't.

Can't wait for the prospects game, see who stands out and why! So much easier to assess players when they are all on an even keel of having great teammates.

I'm a big Max Jones fan, tries to do too much but aside from that, the intense power forward we lack. Think maybe a Ferland that can fly with a waaay heavier shot, same intimidation factor.

2nd line in London because they're a powerhouse, constantly and it's annoying....enough about that!

Saw him with Honeybaked, and U17, and with the Knights.

His shortcomings are very coachable, shot accuracy, letting the play come to him (averages a penalty/game trying to force things).

The way we're going, we're drafting Top 5 so he becomes an afterthought or having 2 firsts.

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Did you forget Veini Vehvilainen? He is been a beast in SM-Liiga this year and solid working in WJC.

 

He's in his 2nd year of draft eligibility. Previously I've had a separate list for players who are "overagers" and re-entering the draft, but this year I wasn't able to put one up. If I did, Vehvilainen would definitely be near the top, considering his improvement over last season (where I had him as one of my ranked goalies as a 1st year draft eligible).

 

I don't like mixing my lists because that extra year or two of development can play a big role in how a prospect looks. Quite frankly, last year I was even debating separating 2nd year eligibles and 3rd year eligibles. That's how much of an impact I think having that development time means for teenagers.

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