Oilers

[Carty]

Understandably for the NHL, making a workable schedule in a regular year is tough, this one could not have been any easier.

This was the sign on the office door while they were working on the schedule...

It's the same one that Shanahan uses when he is deciding how to dole out disciplinary measures...

[ifiwaschucknorris]

I should have more clearly stated using 30 shots against per game.

Save % isn't just on the goaltenders but also the team to limit quality scoring chances against.

30 shots/game is 2460 shots over an 82 game season. I used the actual total of 2506. The 46 extra shots is inconsequential and does not explain your numbers. To reach the numbers you were using in your original calculation then the Oilers would be surrendering 23 goals on those additional 46 shots. Your math was still wrong.

Oilers offence was 20th last year and GAA was 23rd. It's not save percentage per say. The Oilers are not necessarily going to be great offensively(they weren't last year). To me the biggest difference maker on the whole team this year will be Krueger. If he can get the team to play a responsible game then they have a shot at the playoffs, if they play like they did last year they are destined for a high pick again.

Not pointing out the math errors to be an chicken tikka masala. Just trying to point out that an increase in save percentage alone (unless Dubnyk has a Vezina caliber season) will not help you. It's a much bigger problem than that.

[bronco73]

This was the sign on the office door while they were working on the schedule...

It's the same one that Shanahan uses when he is deciding how to dole out disciplinary measures...

Shanaban

[conundrumed]

Solid pickup in Mark Fistric for a 3rd rounder. Solid dman to slot at 5.

[ConnorFutureGM]

30 shots/game is 2460 shots over an 82 game season. I used the actual total of 2506. The 46 extra shots is inconsequential and does not explain your numbers. To reach the numbers you were using in your original calculation then the Oilers would be surrendering 23 goals on those additional 46 shots. Your math was still wrong.

Oilers offence was 20th last year and GAA was 23rd. It's not save percentage per say. The Oilers are not necessarily going to be great offensively(they weren't last year). To me the biggest difference maker on the whole team this year will be Krueger. If he can get the team to play a responsible game then they have a shot at the playoffs, if they play like they did last year they are destined for a high pick again.

Not pointing out the math errors to be an chicken tikka masala. Just trying to point out that an increase in save percentage alone (unless Dubnyk has a Vezina caliber season) will not help you. It's a much bigger problem than that.

30 shots per game times 82 games = 2460. Give the team a .916 save% and they allow 206.64 goals.

[DirtyDeeds]

We (Oilers) are a 29th place team that has made 2 changes to the lineup from last year.

Interesting comments coming from your coach on Sunday.(Source Eric Duhatschek on Fan 960 about his extensive interview with RALPH KRUEGER)

I guess you can change that to 3 changes with your trade today but with your injuries on D this trade is more of a fill in isn't it?

You guys can juggle the numbers all you want but the above statement is being realistic without putting huge expectations on the team.

I don't think that miracle that would be needed is going to happen to take the Oilers from 29th to 3rd in the western conference like some sources are saying.

I wonder what you fans are going to do if the Oilers don't at least compete for a playoff spot again this season. Take a drink from the Oiler Kool-Aid again or call for some blood?

[ifiwaschucknorris]

30 shots per game times 82 games = 2460. Give the team a .916 save% and they allow 206.64 goals.

Numbers that follow are based on an 82 game season.

My apologies it's true. If you assume the Oilers can lower their Shots against per game to an even 30(they would move from 19th to 14th according to last years total) AND assume they raise their save percentage to .916 then you will see them move from 23rd to 11th in GAA at 2.52.

Don't know if you noticed also that last year the Oil averaged scoring exactly 2.52 goals per game. This would give you a goal differential of 0.

Assuming that you already moved up 5 spots in shots against AND lowered your GAA from one of the worst in the league to just outside the top ten (these are easier said than done by the way otherwise you would see more teams do it) you would still be left lacking 10 goals to achieve the magic number of a +10 goal differential.

Where are these 10 additional goals coming from?

They would have to increase there goals/game to 2.64 which would have been good for 15th last year instead of 20th.

In summary, I agree that if Edmonton can be 15th in goals per game and 11th in goals against this year they should be able to achieve a plus 10 goal differential and squeak into the playoffs.

However it seems like this is an awful lot of improvement in one season in both goals against and goals for. TBH trying to fit in a brand new Yakupov and a brand new Schultz into not only the NHL but a very compressed schedule and achieve these team improvements? I don't see it.

Oil will probably finish around 10th-13th

[ConnorFutureGM]

Numbers that follow are based on an 82 game season.

My apologies it's true. If you assume the Oilers can lower their Shots against per game to an even 30(they would move from 19th to 14th according to last years total) AND assume they raise their save percentage to .916 then you will see them move from 23rd to 11th in GAA at 2.52.

Don't know if you noticed also that last year the Oil averaged scoring exactly 2.52 goals per game. This would give you a goal differential of 0.

Assuming that you already moved up 5 spots in shots against AND lowered your GAA from one of the worst in the league to just outside the top ten (these are easier said than done by the way otherwise you would see more teams do it) you would still be left lacking 10 goals to achieve the magic number of a +10 goal differential.

Where are these 10 additional goals coming from?

They would have to increase there goals/game to 2.64 which would have been good for 15th last year instead of 20th.

In summary, I agree that if Edmonton can be 15th in goals per game and 11th in goals against this year they should be able to achieve a plus 10 goal differential and squeak into the playoffs.

However it seems like this is an awful lot of improvement in one season in both goals against and goals for. TBH trying to fit in a brand new Yakupov and a brand new Schultz into not only the NHL but a very compressed schedule and achieve these team improvements? I don't see it.

Oil will probably finish around 10th-13th

Lets use the shortened season.

I'll assume they can get to allowing 30 shots per game. In 48 games that's 1440 shots. Now if the goaltending can have an average of .916 (which is no small feat, I admit) that would be 121 goals scored against.

I continue with another assumption that a +5 to +10 goal differential gets you in. For easiness, lets say they need +9 which would be 130 goals.

How many goals will the Oilers score? Unlike the last several years, the Oilers have a very good top 6, I'd say they are one of the better top 6 in the league. Even the top 9 is above average.

A 20 goal season is equivalent to a 34 goal season.

Hall-RNH-Eberle - 50 goals

Yakupov-Gagner-Hemsky - 40 goals

Smyth-Horcoff-Hartikainen/Paajarvi - 15 goals

Eager-Belanger-Petrell - 5 goals

EXTRA:Hordichuk

Smid-Petry - 5 goals

Schultz-Schultz - 5 goals

Fistric-Whitney - 5 goals

EXTRA:Peckham-Potter

I have the Oilers scoring around 125 goals. They will need either a lesser goal differential to get in or somebody to step up but this still would make them close.

One could counter that I assume that the Oilers won't let more shots against which is true but I would say that if the Oilers allowed more shots against it would give their players more opportunities to score from playing a more open style which would make the shots against less relevant. The one relevant point would be if the goaltending can carry a .916%.

Interesting comments coming from your coach on Sunday.(Source Eric Duhatschek on Fan 960 about his extensive interview with RALPH KRUEGER)

I guess you can change that to 3 changes with your trade today but with your injuries on D this trade is more of a fill in isn't it?

You guys can juggle the numbers all you want but the above statement is being realistic without putting huge expectations on the team.

I don't think that miracle that would be needed is going to happen to take the Oilers from 29th to 3rd in the western conference like some sources are saying.

I wonder what you fans are going to do if the Oilers don't at least compete for a playoff spot again this season. Take a drink from the Oiler Kool-Aid again or call for some blood?

If Oilers don't challenge for the playoffs their is going to be serious heat on management.

[ifiwaschucknorris]

Lets use the shortened season.

I'll assume they can get to allowing 30 shots per game. In 48 games that's 1440 shots. Now if the goaltending can have an average of .916 (which is no small feat, I admit) that would be 121 goals scored against.

I continue with another assumption that a +5 to +10 goal differential gets you in. For easiness, lets say they need +9 which would be 130 goals.

How many goals will the Oilers score? Unlike the last several years, the Oilers have a very good top 6, I'd say they are one of the better top 6 in the league. Even the top 9 is above average.

A 20 goal season is equivalent to a 34 goal season.

Hall-RNH-Eberle - 50 goals 46g

Yakupov-Gagner-Hemsky - 40 goals. 22g(I gave Yakupov a prorated 20g season)

Smyth-Horcoff-Hartikainen/Paajarvi - 15 goals 21g

Eager-Belanger-Petrell - 5 goals. 9g

EXTRA:Hordichuk

Smid-Petry - 5 goals 4g

Schultz-Schultz - 5 goals 7g (I prorated new Schultz for a 10 goal season)

Fistric-Whitney - 5 goals 3G

EXTRA:Peckham-Potter

I have the Oilers scoring around 125 goals. They will need either a lesser goal differential to get in or somebody to step up but this still would make them close. (My projections say 112 goals, I do see the top line having a little better season but if you look at the stats from last year your second line was brutal. Also first year rookies like Schultz and Yak very rarely have a positive impact on teams ability to win games)

One could counter that I assume that the Oilers won't let more shots against which is true but I would say that if the Oilers allowed more shots against it would give their players more opportunities to score from playing a more open style which would make the shots against less relevant. The one relevant point would be if the goaltending can carry a .916%.

If Oilers don't challenge for the playoffs their is going to be serious heat on management.

I put in the numbers beside your totals extrapolating 48 games from last years stats.

Does Krueger's style allow for an open playing style? From what I understand about him he is very much a defence first guy. Honest question as I never watched the Swiss games very much.

The other thing Connor is that to get the significant statistical increases in GAA you almost HAVE to take a hit in your Goals For. Since the returning cast is nearly identical to last year asking for massive improvement in both areas seems like too much.

I'm not arguing that the Oil will take a few strides forward. They might even be in the playoff hunt until the last few games of the season. This team still has too many holes however. I also think Krueger is the main component of this years success if any.

[ConnorFutureGM]

I put in the numbers beside your totals extrapolating 48 games from last years stats.

Does Krueger's style allow for an open playing style? From what I understand about him he is very much a defence first guy. Honest question as I never watched the Swiss games very much.

The other thing Connor is that to get the significant statistical increases in GAA you almost HAVE to take a hit in your Goals For. Since the returning cast is nearly identical to last year asking for massive improvement in both areas seems like too much.

I'm not arguing that the Oil will take a few strides forward. They might even be in the playoff hunt until the last few games of the season. This team still has too many holes however. I also think Krueger is the main component of this years success if any.

You're dramatically underestimating the 2nd line and you're not taking player injury recoveries into account but non Oiler fans wouldn't know the difference it would make. The defence core is also stronger.

Whitney and Hemsky seem to be close to 100%. Hemsky last year was 60% and Whitney was 20%. These players were the best Oilers before the rebuild started.

The 2nd line will score a lot more than 22 goals.

The Oilers have an OK top 6 now that they will start the season with; Smid-Petry, Schultz-Schultz, Whitney-Fistric.

[ifiwaschucknorris]

You're dramatically underestimating the 2nd line and you're not taking player injury recoveries into account but non Oiler fans wouldn't know the difference it would make. The defence core is also stronger.

Whitney and Hemsky seem to be close to 100%. Hemsky last year was 60% and Whitney was 20%. These players were the best Oilers before the rebuild started.

The 2nd line will score a lot more than 22 goals.

The Oilers have an OK top 6 now that they will start the season with; Smid-Petry, Schultz-Schultz, Whitney-Fistric.

Possibly. I didn't follow the Oil enough to know if Hemsky and Whitney were playing with injuries. I believe Hemsky played 60ish games and Whitney 51. I did take those totals into account in the goal projections and I think a 20 goal pace(full season) for Nail Yakupov is fair but we will see. TBH though banking on both Hemsky and Whitney to have injury free seasons is kind of a long shot with their history isn't it?

P.S.

It's nice to have discussions about our favorite teams without things degenerating to name calling isn't it?

[ConnorFutureGM]

Possibly. I didn't follow the Oil enough to know if Hemsky and Whitney were playing with injuries. I believe Hemsky played 60ish games and Whitney 51. I did take those totals into account in the goal projections and I think a 20 goal pace(full season) for Nail Yakupov is fair but we will see. TBH though banking on both Hemsky and Whitney to have injury free seasons is kind of a long shot with their history isn't it?

P.S.

It's nice to have discussions about our favorite teams without things degenerating to name calling isn't it?

I expect Whitney to have a good season being it a contract year. Hemsky should rebound too. I'm sure the Oilers will have injuries but for the first time in a while it seems all of the Oilers key players are healthy.

I appreciate intellectual conversation and debate.

Who do you think will get more points between the Oilers and Flames? Would you like to have a sig bet on it?

[ifiwaschucknorris]

I expect Whitney to have a good season being it a contract year. Hemsky should rebound too. I'm sure the Oilers will have injuries but for the first time in a while it seems all of the Oilers key players are healthy.

I appreciate intellectual conversation and debate.

Who do you think will get more points between the Oilers and Flames? Would you like to have a sig bet on it?

I think it will be the Flames. They keep hovering around the playoff bubble and I believe they are better this year than last. Edmonton is better too but they have further to move up the ladder.

I will take your bet and I pick the Flames. PM with the details and I'll get back to you after work.

[ConnorFutureGM]

I think it will be the Flames. They keep hovering around the playoff bubble and I believe they are better this year than last. Edmonton is better too but they have further to move up the ladder.

I will take your bet and I pick the Flames. PM with the details and I'll get back to you after work.

Loser wheres something picked by the winner referring to the winner's city superiority over the loser's city for the length of the playoffs.

Deal?

[Flyerfan52]

I was thinking back to the 1983-84 roster. They had 2 legitimate 1/1 picks (Hawerchuk & Babych) picks on the roster that were attained by being that bad. Yet in the powerhouse Smythe division they were in the playoffs after only 2 years of sucking.

1992-93 tells a similar story. Selanne, Numminen & Steen were all dang good players but not a 1/1 in the bunch. Still a decent (not great team) that was managed by Mike Smith who was into Russian studies & liked Russian players. His big problem was he never could sort out the difference between the 2 Sergei Bautins available in the same year.

2 little stories that seem to point out yet again 1/1 doesn't always = best player that year.

Hall & RNH are very likely to be fine players. Eberle is the non 1/1 but the player I personally have the biggest hopes for. Yakupov I'd rather see play an actual NHL game before deciding.

[bronco73]

I was thinking back to the 1983-84 roster. They had 2 legitimate 1/1 picks (Hawerchuk & Babych) picks on the roster that were attained by being that bad. Yet in the powerhouse Smythe division they were in the playoffs after only 2 years of sucking.

1992-93 tells a similar story. Selanne, Numminen & Steen were all dang good players but not a 1/1 in the bunch. Still a decent (not great team) that was managed by Mike Smith who was into Russian studies & liked Russian players. His big problem was he never could sort out the difference between the 2 Sergei Bautins available in the same year.

2 little stories that seem to point out yet again 1/1 doesn't always = best player that year.

Hall & RNH are very likely to be fine players. Eberle is the non 1/1 but the player I personally have the biggest hopes for. Yakupov I'd rather see play an actual NHL game before deciding.

I'm with you on this one. Too early to tell on RNH and for that matter Hall as well, but of those three it's my opinion that Eberle will by far exceed what the other two will accomplish. '08 was a very good draft year, but Edmonton snagging Eberle at 22'nd was in my opinion the steal of that draft.

[DirtyDeeds]

According to Peter Maher on Fan 960 the Oilers are in among the thick of things in the bid for Roberto Luongo.

$$ aside I have said this would be a great fit for Edmonton. However I hope it does not happen. He sports Kipper like numbers lifetime. Still it would be pretty much the biggest single improvement that the Oilers could make to their team.

[DL44]

According to Peter Maher on Fan 960 the Oilers are in among the thick of things in the bid for Roberto Luongo.

$$ aside I have said this would be a great fit for Edmonton. However I hope it does not happen. He sports Kipper like numbers lifetime. Still it would be pretty much the biggest single improvement that the Oilers could make to their team.

The funny thing about that story is that Luongo would still have to waive his NTC...

So would he waive to move his family to Edmonton?

Would Gillis trade a Vezina caliber goalie within his division - ignoring the fact that a move between the clubs hasn't happened since ??? - let alone a franchise altering one.

I just don't think Gillis moves to set up a division rival for potentially huge success.

-Since i'm pretty sure every UFA Dman, and high quality UFA veteran depth forward would instantly be taking notice of the remaining voids in the Oiler lineup and be thinking...hmmmm, i think i may the piece...

[C_worthy]

The funny thing about that story is that Luongo would still have to waive his NTC...

So would he waive to move his family to Edmonton?

Would Gillis trade a Vezina caliber goalie within his division - ignoring the fact that a move between the clubs hasn't happened since ??? - let alone a franchise altering one.

I just don't think Gillis moves to set up a division rival for potentially huge success.

-Since i'm pretty sure every UFA Dman, and high quality UFA veteran depth forward would instantly be taking notice of the remaining voids in the Oiler lineup and be thinking...hmmmm, i think i may the piece...

Agreed. The only way Gillis agrees to Edmonton is if he gets over-payment.

Even if he does, convincing Luongo would be a challenge

[ConnorFutureGM]

Luongo's favorite team growing up was edmonton.

It still wouldn't make perfect sense from Edmonton's side. It would comparable to the Flames trading Backlund for Lecavalier.

[ConnorFutureGM]

Luongo's favorite team growing up was edmonton.

It still wouldn't make perfect sense from Edmonton's side. It would comparable to the Flames trading Backlund for Lecavalier.

[woodendoug]

If it means anything the Oilers are slightly heavier than Calgary

[DirtyDeeds]

If it means anything the Oilers are slightly heavier than Calgary

....

Slightly heavier and older than the Flames:

From THN earlier this morning

[DirtyDeeds]

I'm not saying it's a guarantee that Oilers make the playoffs with that goal differential but if they are between +5 and +10 they should be close if not in. This coming season is almost half of a regular season so that +20 would be +12ish.

I am saying that if the Oilers have a combined save% of .916 they should make the playoffs.

I think it is safe to presume that if the Oilers allow more shots then they will get more shots. Krueger is an X's and O's coach as well as a players coach. I don't see the team getting that badly outplayed on a regular basis to allow that many more shots against than for.

I am basing my prediction on goaltending. I said if they combine for a .916 save% they should be in. I used goal differential to show that they would be close if they had that last year.

If Oilers are a still .500 team after the road trip for the season thus far at that point, they will be in great shape to make the playoffs with having 14 of their last 22 games of the season being at home.

No player on the Flames is worth Yakupov straight up in a trade, same with Schultz.

Oilers never had Stastny.

I should have more clearly stated using 30 shots against per game.

Save % isn't just on the goaltenders but also the team to limit quality scoring chances against.

So much for your .916 sv%. 6 goals in 1 period is going to set your goaltenders combined % for the rest of the shortened season. Just not going to happen.

I am going to say you will have to rethink your "on paper playoff" Oilers. -5 goal diff in first period shows me your D is still extremely weak and highly disorganized.

[bronco73]

So much for your .916 sv%. 6 goals in 1 period is going to set your goaltenders combined % for the rest of the shortened season. Just not going to happen.

I am going to say you will have to rethink your "on paper playoff" Oilers. -5 goal diff in first period shows me your D is still extremely weak and highly disorganized.

Wow man, OK I am here to take the ribbing like a man

yea, terrible coverage, people wandering around, two guys chasing behind the net leaving the front wide open, Dubnyk was nothing short of detestible, an NHL team couldn't look any worse than Edmonton did in that period.