travel_dude

We agree. Griffin Reinhart.

5 years from now, a lot will look back and shake their heads. But really, the 1st round will probably have most that become NHL players. There will be a few that people go WTF, but they were probably risk/reward types over safe picks. I think it's going to be one of those drafts where teams ignore some of these ratings and just pick what's right for them. Teams with multiple picks will pick one from the list and then go way off the board. I've never put much stock in SI. Maybe they are really smart, but were they not really high on Ghost? And that's the thing isn't it. For every Weber, there are a bunch of Ghosts.

SI seems to have a low opinion of Lysell and a high opinion of L'Hereux. Not that I have ever believed half of what they write, but I find it interesting. What I find even more interesting is that they only have 6 D in the top 20, and just 4 of them are top 12. Hard to really argue against the makeup of the top 12, while placement is a bit more subjective.

Be sure to have that deal lined up while you are on the clock at the draft. Lots of GM happy to throw a late 1st for a proven NHL winger getting to the top of his game.

The progression and decline of players is not linear. Nor is it ever the same for all players. Gaudreau was a late show to the game, as he had years in college. And a couple to get to the NHL size. Then he was unstopable. Then some teams figured a way to stop him. Then his sniper was injured. Then he found a new way to score. So you would argue that he is past prime. I get that and it's not wrong to want to trade to get better. Patty Kane is laughing at you. MSL is rolling his eyes. They know that smaller players invent and re-invent themselves. Trade him now, at a low point for the player, and get some okay assets. Maybe you get a player that has a lower trajectory and trade him at 25. One thing is certain, though. We do hang onto assets too long. Iggy, Gio, Cammi, Hamonic. Some not long enough. Jbow. Hammy. MSL. etc. I can understand not trading Gio. It was a selfish thing to want to keep a captain past his best year. Trading Backlund before Monahan makes sense. Trading Monahan before Tkachuk does too, but just from a trajectory sense. He's not done, just he needs to have a good line to pley with. Make the trades that make you better, not possibly, maybe better. Trading Mangiapane for a pick is just dumb. Is he worth a 1st from a cup winner? Wow, that's sad. A NHL player starting his peak for a 50/50 NHL player. Not even a top tier 50/50 player.

SO, you look at one season and think this is proof of being past the peak? Okay, I guess you are right. Never mind the reasons for the decline. Never mind any other reasons.

If only we had the defense to go with the defensive play. Only a few teams are successful at that, and they usually have a core to envy.

Statistical averages are fine, but don't do well at predicting individual players. To make matters worse, you are using old data. One would expect that a 33 year old Crosby would have much more wear and tear due to the era he was a standout. Or a 40 year old Seabrooke. Any exception is a blip in the graph, you won't even see. By using this graph as a predictor, Mangiapane already declined. Not even a single full season played and already on the decline. Never mind he was passed over in the draft. Or that he plied his craft in the AHL for two years. Him and Monahan and Gaudreau will see sharp declines in production. The graph already predicted it. I'm sure STL is losing sleep because ROR is 30 now. Must have been lucky to get anything out of him in his declining years from Age 25 on. All downhill for McDavid and Draisaitl. Poor EDM.

No, I think I said no rebuild. Trading Tkachuk and/or Gaudreau and/or Monahan for players and picks and prospects isn't rebuild. Trading them for picks is. Most team fork up the rebuild. The successful ones recognize the players they need to keep to get there. Has there been any? Not without the contributions on the way and during an actual run by those so called players that were >25 at the start of the cycle.

He has played with Tkachuk (3M line) with him playing LW. But the point is, that trading him only makes sense if we keeping the other guys. P/60 is one thing. He managed to be good playing with Lucic. Let that sink in. That rate will improve if he plays less defensive time. If you think he's more likely to trend down because he is reaching the end of his peak (LOL), that is fine. Why you want to trade him is because you think he has a good trade value. That's fine, but not sure why you think that makes sense. What is he worth right now? A 2nd? Big stinking deal. You talk about drafting and development, but we have a success story and you think the sensible thing is to trade him for a pick. Perpetual shiny new toys.

We saw pretty amazing results from a player that played mostly 3rd line minutes and 2nd PP time. And yet, the guy has barely two seasons under his belt. Two partial seasons and 1/2 another. We know we have a gem, but this is not a sell high player yet. Sure, teams watched his progression and impact at the WC, but he's not even close to sell high value.

I think it's more like moving on from certain guys that have been around for years. Only coaches get fired. A/coaches get promoted to "development". Edwards Gelly Signalet I would say that nothing about that crew screams success in their roles.

This seems like a BT move over a Sutter choice. Sutter likes Huska, but I don't know he was happy with the other guys.

Being a playoff contender is a different beast. No one team is for more than a few years, and Tampa was swept in one of those years. Are they one this year? Yes, but pretty hard to beat a team with a $98m cap. Yes, that is accurate. Being a contender going into the playoffs is at the very least where we need to get to. You can argue we never were in the year we were 2nd overall, but facing a hungry team in round 1 doesn't mean that. STL wasn't a playoff contender the year they won. Toronto and WPG were teams that should have done better. They have even less success than us in the playoffs. My point is that drafting a strong team is one thing. Building a team that regularly gets in the playoffs is the first step in the process. Building the completion parts that gets them far is much tougher. You really need two teams. One that plays with enough skill to get a high seed. One that plays in the gutters that has the fewest key injuries, to get past a round or three. It's why so few teams repeat. Tampa may get to the finals again. Vegas could as well. One team with a stellar goalie and $98m cap (this season only). One team with a good goalie and enough top talent pilfered from other teams to get there.

In the last 12 seasons, only 7 different teams have won it.

Muller will probably run the forwards and PP. Cali maybe the PK or just defensive play. With Muller, it's not like we are getting a rookie NHL coach or A/coach. Perhaps Cali is here because they plan to use more of Mackey and Ruzicka. More familiar with them? Dunno.

I can't locate the article, but what I had read was that Tanev's insane fancy stats dropped considerably when he was paired with Gio.

To add to that, we certainly gave up a lot of picks and still had success.

So, he was paired with Tanev mostly when moved from playing with Ras? On a side note, Tanev's high levels suffered a bit playing with Gio. I'm not discounting what he did this year, but unless he plays with our top pairing guy, we have seen a decline. Still good value for this team.

I don't think it would take Monahan. Simple switch, Gio + Parsons for Zadorov. After the draft of course.

I don't know about the A part. He's exactly the guy you want to back up going into battle. You are right about the GAS attitude being strong. Confidence with Ras and Valimaki is not that strong. Both have abilities that are not being exploited. I can't fathom why he looks off a shot when he has a lane available. Almost looks like he is told to pass to me by someone. Sutter wants more pucks on net, but he spent most of the time as a the guy to let his partner decide things.

Cap floor isn't going to be a reason to take a crap contract unless it comes with a sweetener. They can deal with 31 teams to do that, separate from the expansion draft. Gio at least offers contract value close to his production. Don't get me wrong, if they select Lucic, I will be smiling. I'll be okay with them picking Gio, but only because it reduces the cap by $6.75m for one year.

We haven't been good at identifying those players in FA.

In hindsight, it would have been great to pick Vas. He wouldn't be playing in PITTS. If your goal is to win one or possibly two cups at any cost, Tampa is a great model. Be fortunate enough to have a team take a cap dump and give you a 1st rounder. Be able to play with the cap to have an actual cap of $98m this season. Amazing the timing of it. A 1st, 3rd and a 4th to get a D-man at 25% salary. Smart cap management.

The only absolutes are the team wasn't entirely through drafting and Vegas was built mostly through trades and signings. Certainly, they had top scorers drafted over a long period of time. Certainly, the contributions by non-drafted players played a big part in winning the cup. Neither team is a contender with just drafted players or just traded for players.