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Top Prospect Auston Matthews opts to turn pro


conundrumed

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Does he have the talent to play in the NHL this year? His drafted buddies probably play in JR again this year.

Whaf I wonder is how this affects his AHL eligibility after he is drafted. Can he play in the AHL because he will be drafted by a European league?

This is where it could get tricky. Players could opt for Euro leagues and get paid more earlier by getting drafted out of one, instead of being made to play in JR if they don't make the big club out of the draft year.

 

He would have been in the NHL this year if he was drafted, no doubt about it. Whether it was Buffalo, Arizona, Toronto or Carolina, he'd be on the roster. He's less dynamic than Eichel, but plays a more mature game in the sense that he's more about making the smart play than making the exciting play. He might be better than Eichel at playing a cycle game and he doesn't overhandle the puck like a lot of young offensively gifted forwards do.

 

Yes, he's eligible for the AHL right out of the draft, another feather in his cap for any team that wants to draft him.

 

His situation is unique in the sense of:

 

1. He's a top contender for 1st overall out of North America, and as valuable as a top-3 selection (taking into account differences in draft quality) heading into that year's season. Very few players are this is any given year for obvious reasons. But what this means is that he would be worth the money and legal effort to sign to a contract and bring over from a European team's perspective. I don't believe that ZSC would be as willing to take a gamble on a player ranked in the mid-late 1st round, as an example. Matthews is special in that his franchise-caliber talent means he's capable of being a core member of a professional team, whereas many young draft-eligible players are lucky to even be playing a regular shift in the top leagues. I don't think they'd be as eager to bring over a player such as Brett Howden, when they could bring up a young player from Switzerland to play the same (bit) role without taking up an import spot..

 

2. His birthdate is just after the NHL draft cutoff date, but early enough that he only misses a few games out of the regular season. In that case, the team still gets approximately one full season out of the contract, as he can't legally work until he turns 18. This cuts off any late-birthdate from mid-October and beyond (the Swiss league in particular only plays 50 games + any tournaments, meaning it's more like anyone after September for Swiss teams), as by then the team will have already played around 20% of its season. It wouldn't be worth it to sign a player who uses up an import spot when he is guaranteed to miss such a significant chunk of the season, when you could sign a veteran for the same cost and have him available right from the get-go to help with a playoff push or championship run.

 

The number of players who played in North America the year before their draft year and fulfilled both of these categories by my count, since the turn of the millennium, is exactly 5: Jay Bouwmeester (b. Sept. 27, '02 draft), Phil Kessel (b. Oct. 2, '06 draft), John Tavares (b. Sept. 20, '09 draft), Nail Yakupov (b. Oct. 6, '12 draft) and Seth Jones (b. Oct. 3, '13 draft). Yakupov's nationality would pose problems had he chosen to head back overseas (Russian factor would scare teams). Kessel, Yakupov and Jones are all October-born, meaning that they'd already have missed more than 1/8 of their team's games had they played in the Swiss league. Bouwmeester, Tavares and Yakupov were already beholden to CHL contracts.

 

Matthews was the one who initiated conversations with ZSC, If he hadn't done so, they wouldn't even have considered him as a potential member of their team. He hadn't committed to an NCAA team, nor had he signed a CHL contract. For all intents and purposes, he was a free agent, giving him the kind of freedom that none of the above had. He was the earliest born, making it easy for his team to swallow missing 4 games.

 

Matthews' situation is one of a kind, and the chances of another player hitting every factor the same way is extremely unlikely to begin with, then you have to consider that the player in question actually has to WANT to play overseas.

 

I actually think it's a strong guarantee that another player will come along and do the same as Matthews, but it will be far from a common occurrence, given that only 6 players in 17 draft years had the perceived talent and the right age range to be able to manage such a move. The NCAA and CHL are still good enough feeder systems that the best prospects are still most likely to flock to those leagues (Americans especially as the USHL/Jr. A/NCAA route would allow prospects to bypass the CHL-NHL agreement).

 

I think it'll still happen, but maybe only around once in a decade, if that. The logistics just don't allow for anything more, barring a sudden increase in the number of quality NA hockey players born between Sept. 16 and Sept. 30th.

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He would have been in the NHL this year if he was drafted, no doubt about it. Whether it was Buffalo, Arizona, Toronto or Carolina, he'd be on the roster. He's less dynamic than Eichel, but plays a more mature game in the sense that he's more about making the smart play than making the exciting play. He might be better than Eichel at playing a cycle game and he doesn't overhandle the puck like a lot of young offensively gifted forwards do.

 

Crzy just a question for you then, how good is this kid in comparison? Im just wondering based on what you said, in your draft rankings would you rank him behind mcdavid? behind eichel? in the top 5? Seems like the maturity in his game would make him a pretty safe pick and projects well for the NHL game.

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Crzy just a question for you then, how good is this kid in comparison? Im just wondering based on what you said, in your draft rankings would you rank him behind mcdavid? behind eichel? in the top 5? Seems like the maturity in his game would make him a pretty safe pick and projects well for the NHL game.

 

I would have placed him 3rd behind McDavid and Eichel. In my mind, he's a 1st overall caliber prospect. 2015 was exceptional in the sense that you had 2 players who were surefire 1st overalls, another 3 who in other drafts would be top 3 prospects and contenders for 1st overall, and then another 2 or 3 who were top 5 talents. So you had 7-8 top 5 caliber prospects fighting to be selected (which is really good for the teams stuck in purgatory like Philadelphia, New Jersey and Columbus who just got an elite player at a position in which normally those kinds of talents aren't available). Even with those guys however, Matthews is on another level.

 

Matthews and Eichel are close, slight advantage to Eichel. Eichel's raw skating power is better than Matthews, his stride is kind of inefficient but he's just so athletic that he can flat out fly even with the disadvantage. Matthews doesn't have that same power in his legs, he's a good skater and exceptionally mobile for his size but it's not the same top speed or acceleration.

 

They're both incredible at protecting the puck and using their size to their advantage, and their stickhandling is tremendous (in my mind, they're very close) but Eichel has more of a dynamic game and will make plays out of nothing. This also, however, leads to situations where he'll force the puck towards a spot that isn't available. When it works it looks great, but while he can get away with some plays now, those opportunities will be less and less as the competition gets better.

 

Matthews is more of a analytical, quick-strike player, he's relentless on the puck and if he doesn't see a play he's the kind of guy to send it to a safe spot so that they can reset and start over. I've seen a lot of situations where he'll have the puck, doesn't like what he sees, sends it down low to the corner to work up a cycle, and then as soon as a defender slips up even a tiny bit the puck is in a scoring area and hitting twine. Against players his own age (and even older, given how he looked against NCAA competition), he absolutely dominates in the offensive zone if he gets the puck, because he'll just continue to extend the possession until a play opens up a la Ryan Getzlaf. The perfect prospect for the advanced statistics crowd.

 

If you read the Jonathan Quick Player's Tribune, you'll notice he talks about how some players play on the outside, meaning the goalie doesn't have to be "on" as often, whereas a guy like Getzlaf and Perry play the kind of heavy cycle game (deep in the offensive zone near the goalie) that tires a goalie out, because their legs are always in stance and their brain has to keep focused the whole shift. Matthews plays a similar style of game that leads to heavy minutes for the opposing goalie.

 

They both have powerful shots, but Eichel definitely has more accuracy. It's actually the one thing I'd like to see more out of Matthews, because he has a tendency to misfire; the shot is heavy, but it means nothing if it's high and wide. I feel Eichel has more of a killer instinct offensively, but they both bear down so hard on the opponents that eventually, the dam breaks and they'll have popped up a 2 or 3 point game.

 

Eichel is more apt to play a physical game and assert himself, but Matthews will crash and bang if he has to, he just happens to prefer to use his stick more because it gives him the ability to stay in the play and start a breakout from the defensive end. This is good for his defensive abilities as he's going to be playing in a league where good positioning and stickwork will be key, so I can only see this aspect of his game getting even better under Crawford and co.

 

If Matthews was as athletically talented as Eichel, I think he'd have been picked ahead of him if he was available this draft. As it is, I think Matthews is a better prospect and 1st overall contender than the likes of Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, and Ekblad/Reinhart were heading into their draft seasons. He's in that group of the likes of Hall, MacKinnon and Tavares, a top notch 1st overall selection and a potential franchise player. A lot can change in a year though, so he'll have to continue to improve to hold onto that spot as he's being pushed by a solid draft class behind him (I count 2 other players who are top 3 talents with a shot at 1st overall, another 1 with the talent but huge question marks, and more than a full 1st round's worth of top-30 caliber prospects. There will be second rounders in this year's draft who in terms of ability would have been late 1st rounders in an average draft year).

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Thanks for the info crzy always so informative when we need info on a player. Im assuming this will be this will be an interesting season then for telling scouts if hes NHL ready or not, if he can play well in the swiss league he might end up being a more highly touted prospect, if he doesnt maybe some more time to work on his game is needed.

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  • 1 month later...

Matthews looked real good in his debut game, and I didn't even get to see it live or in-person. The short clips I did catch looked like Matthews, but with almost every physical ability upgraded.

 

He looks more explosive on his feet than he was last year. A Matthews that was an average skater in terms of speed was already pretty dangerous, but a Matthews with some jump might just be enough to guarantee his 1st overall status. Looks like it's only a matter of time before he begins to impose his will on the Swiss league.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Since I live in Switzerland, should I give u here a weekly Update about his stats??

 

Here are the Stats. Date: 06.10.2015

 

Games played: 6 out of 10 (due to "not allowed to play" because he wasn't 18 at the time the league startet)

Goals: 4

Assits: 2

Points: 6

+/- : +1

PIM: 0

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Yesterday he scored twice and is now with an other Player (who played all 13 Games (!)) the Goal scoring leader in the swiss leage:

 

Stats date: 14.10.2015

 

Games played: 9 out of 13 (due to "not allowed to play" because he wasn't 18 at the time the league startet)

Goals: 8

Assits: 2

Points: 10

+/- : +1

PIM: 0

Shots: 40

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He is currently leading the league in scoring with another guy but the other guy played 4 more games than him.

 

Stats date: 19.10.2015

 

Games played: 11 out of 15 (due to "not allowed to play" because he wasn't 18 at the time the league startet)

Goals: 9

Assits: 3

Points: 12

+/- : +2

PIM: 2

Shots: 44

 

Greetings and have good week!

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