Can we make the Playoffs this year?

[Pyromancer]

Did I mention I love the charts? Thank you Pyro! 

 

SheriforPM....You're welcome!

 

I hope the others above such as travel_dude & FlyerFan52 explained the apparent Nuck-love in the chart numbers sufficiently. I have no Nuck love whatsoever & never will. I cheer for all 29  teams to beat them, preferably badly.

 

The projection is a simple numerical calculation in order to find the projected wild card cutoff points. It only takes into account seasonal performance to date & ignores intangibles such as trades, injuries, improving or deteriorating results, home vs road schedule, strength of opponents remaining; etc.

That is then used to calculate the points each team needs from their current total to equal that number. That number is then broken down with games remaining to show W-L-OTL to equal that number.

 

Of course if every team attained that exact record we would have a 13-way tie for 8th [1st] before tie-breaking procedures. It would be 14 teams but the poor Oilers can win every game & still end up under the cut-off number.

[darth_henning]

Well Sharks are clinging on for dear life. Surprising that they're in that position so soon.

[kehatch]

Here is how I break it down:

• Nashville, St Louis, Chicago, and Anaheim are clearly in
• Edmonton and Arizona are clearly out
• I think Colorado is too far back so I have them out
• Dallas just lost Seguin.  I don't see them hopping over the teams in front of them.  I have them out.  
• I don't see Winnipeg making top 3 in their division.  I also don't see them falling out of the playoffs.  So they get one of the two wild card spots. 
• That leaves Calgary, Vancouver, San Jose, LA, and Minnesota fighting for 3 spots.  

Of those teams:

• Minnesota: They scare me.  They are playing well and there is nothing more dangerous down the stretch then a hot team that just got a hot tender.  I see them in.  
• San Jose: They are 3-5-2 in their last 10.  This includes 2 losses to Edmonton and Carolina.  They are collapsing at the wrong time.  I see them out.  
• LA: Every season this team finds a way down the stretch.  They just won 5 games in a row.  I see them in.

That leaves Calgary and Vancouver fighting it out for the final spot.  Obviously that is an oversimplification since it relies on the assumptions above proving true.  But it makes sense. Most didn't have those two teams in the playoffs.  San Jose falling out leaves room for one of those teams to make it.  

 

It does set up for some drama.  We are tied with them in points.  We split the season series with them.  They are our biggest rival.  Both were bottom teams last season and have over achieved expectations this season.  Who would have thought both teams would have been in this situation mid February?  Fun times.  

[JTech780]

Going on a slightly different route, who would we not want to match up against in the first round? From worst to best.

 

1. Nashville: As said above, Nashville is good. They have probably the best D-core in the NHL, a good goaltender who is playing well this year, and they can (finally) score enough to be an offensive threat. We still get to play them before the playoffs, so my opinion may change if we do well.

 

2. Anaheim: haven't won in their building in a decade. 'Nough said. We do have Hiller though who would love to show the Ducks in the Playoffs that they made a big mistake benching him then letting him go. For that reason, they are not #1.

 

3. Chicago: We were badly outshot and they have done well in recent years.

 

4. St. Louis: They're a good team but they haven't done well in the playoffs. More observation nessisary.

 

5. LA: Yes, the Kings have won 2 time in the past 3 years. Yes, they are considered to be built for the playoffs. We have beaten them 4 times this year though. The one time we lost, we were dominated I grant you, but this is not the same team that won the cup. They lack Voynov, they are tired from so many deep runs, Quick has been lacking. They are still scary, but less so to the Flames.

 

6. We aren't playing Winnipeg, but I wouldn't care. Neutral.

 

7. Vancouver: Typically I wouldn't like this, but we've beaten them twice already, once in a close match.

 

8. SJS: We've dominated them, we can again. They are more fragile this year.

 

I wouldn't want to play anyone in the central, I am not that afraid of Nashville, but if you get through them you have to get through Chicago or St. Louis, those are the real contenders in that division.

 

We always seem to have a tough time against Anaheim and especially in their barn so they would be high on my list as well.

 

1.Chicago

2.St.Louis

3.Anaheim

4.Nashville

5.LA

6.Minnesota

7.Vancouver

8.San Jose

[kehatch]

My order from least wanted to most wanted match-up for the first round:

(Team (record) games remaining - season series winner)

1. Anaheim (1-2-0) GR: 2 - TBD
2. St Louis (0-1-0) GR: 2 - TBD
3. Chicago (1-2-0) GR: 0 - Lost
4. Nashville (2-0-0) GR: 1 - Won
5. Minnesota (0-1-0) GR: 2 - TBD
6. LA (3-1-0) GR: 1 - Won
7. Vancouver (2-1-1) GR: 0 - Won
8. San Jose (4-1-0) GR: 0 - Won
9. Winnipeg (2-0-0) GR: 1 - Won

For interest sake we are 15-9-1 against the western teams in the playoff race with 9 games to be played.  We have won 4 of the seasons series while only losing 1. Three series still need to be determined (though we are behind in all of them).   

[Flyerfan52]

Here is how I break it down:

• Nashville, St Louis, Chicago, and Anaheim are clearly in
• Edmonton and Arizona are clearly out
• I think Colorado is too far back so I have them out
• Dallas just lost Seguin.  I don't see them hopping over the teams in front of them.  I have them out.  
• I don't see Winnipeg making top 3 in their division.  I also don't see them falling out of the playoffs.  So they get one of the two wild card spots. 
• That leaves Calgary, Vancouver, San Jose, LA, and Minnesota fighting for 3 spots.  

Of those teams:

• Minnesota: They scare me.  They are playing well and there is nothing more dangerous down the stretch then a hot team that just got a hot tender.  I see them in.  
• San Jose: They are 3-5-2 in their last 10.  This includes 2 losses to Edmonton and Carolina.  They are collapsing at the wrong time.  I see them out.  
• LA: Every season this team finds a way down the stretch.  They just won 5 games in a row.  I see them in.

That leaves Calgary and Vancouver fighting it out for the final spot.  Obviously that is an oversimplification since it relies on the assumptions above proving true.  But it makes sense. Most didn't have those two teams in the playoffs.  San Jose falling out leaves room for one of those teams to make it.  

 

It does set up for some drama.  We are tied with them in points.  We split the season series with them.  They are our biggest rival.  Both were bottom teams last season and have over achieved expectations this season.  Who would have thought both teams would have been in this situation mid February?  Fun times.  

Things definately got dire for Dallas with Seguin going down.

 

Jets got bad news today as well since Perreault will be out until playoffs. Stafford will be a gameday decision. They recalled Klingberg & Buff told Maurice "whatever you need" so will be back @ forward. They were already looking for another forward but Chevy won't be bent over in a desperation trade. Probably still in as they are as close a team as the Flames.

 

Thoughts on the others:

Wild: 8-1-1 in the last 10 while Dubnyk has played like a superstar. They got close but aren't going to make it.

Sharks: I see them missing the playoffs totally rather than their previous pattern of collapsing once in.

Kings: On a charge up the standings. Seen that movie before. They were my fallback team when neither Calgary nor Winnipeg made the playoffs but this year that scares the heck out of me. Especially since once playoffs start the cap goes out the door & Black Aces arrive.

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As Pyro said previously, buckle up as it's gonna be a wild ride.

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A trade scenario that just popped into my head. Mike Richards with 1.75 retained for a 7th or pending UFA minor leaguer.

Instant forward

[Flamespatriot]

1-Nashvill- Boss team, they hustle and have not been slowing down

2-St.Louis- Heating up and consistent

3-Anaheim- Consistent, and will improve as playoffs approach

4-Chicago-Heating up, but not as consistent as St Louis or Anaheim

5-Vancouver- Consistent, and will continue winning games in bunches till play offs

6-Calgary-  Flames play very hard every game, and will continue to win more games then LA and San Jose

7-LA- Heating up, winning games again, but they are too many games behind Calgary to catch us

8-MIN- Same as LA,

9-Winnipeg- weak goaltending, and a inconsistent offense will be their demise

10-San Jose- Slowing down at the wrong time, inconsistent defense and goaltending, and weak offense will be their demise

[travel_dude]

Things definately got dire for Dallas with Seguin going down.

 

Jets got bad news today as well since Perreault will be out until playoffs. Stafford will be a gameday decision. They recalled Klingberg & Buff told Maurice "whatever you need" so will be back @ forward. They were already looking for another forward but Chevy won't be bent over in a desperation trade. Probably still in as they are as close a team as the Flames.

 

Thoughts on the others:

Wild: 8-1-1 in the last 10 while Dubnyk has played like a superstar. They got close but aren't going to make it.

Sharks: I see them missing the playoffs totally rather than their previous pattern of collapsing once in.

Kings: On a charge up the standings. Seen that movie before. They were my fallback team when neither Calgary nor Winnipeg made the playoffs but this year that scares the heck out of me. Especially since once playoffs start the cap goes out the door & Black Aces arrive.

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As Pyro said previously, buckle up as it's gonna be a wild ride.

*************************************************************************

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A trade scenario that just popped into my head. Mike Richards with 1.75 retained for a 7th or pending UFA minor leaguer.

Instant forward

LA is a big question mark this year. I don't know if their recent run is a preview or the end of a rerun.

If we both make it in, I don't want to see them in the 1st round, although that is probably the best chance to beat them.

Minnie will probably make a fool out of me, but I think they are on the start of a downward spiral. They have to survive the big games against the West teams, and I think that VAN exposed their weakness; playing against teams with big players.

WPG lost two players (Kane and Perreault), but only got Stafford back to replace the scoring. If they get some scoring back, they have an excellent good chance at a Wild Card spot.

SJ is done, but they don't quite know it yet. As soon as they trade away Marleau, then they are going rebuild. COL is done; they don't have the right mix to make up the missing points. VAN is questionable. I don't think that Miller will take them where Lou/Schneider could. Bieksa is a big loss to them. They are basically a 500 team against the West, and they have a lot of games to play.

I think CGY has a very good chance to finish 3rd in the Pacific.

EDIT:

Oh, and your suggestion for Richards makes sense if we were to lose GlenX by TDL. He adds playoff experience and can play a variety of lines for us. I'm not sure of whether I would want more for taking on that big contract, though. Has to make sense for both teams. I kinda like the basis of your deal, though.

[Flamespatriot]

I don't know why people are counting the canucks out. They just need to go .500 for the rest of the season to make 8th seed. They will win their fair share of games before their season is done

[darth_henning]

I think there's a certain amount of anti-canucks bias. Statistically, Flames and Canucks are most likely to be 2/3 pacific in either order.

 

Top two ROW, top two pacific goal differential, most remaining games compared to oponents. Admittedly two major d-men are out for them, and how they respond to that will determine where they rank, but I think they won't drop off as bad as SJS is.

 

 

Yes, LAK and MIN are heating up and SJS is falling off, but at most LAK if they go on an absolute tear knock VAN or CAL down to the wildcard with WPG.

 

WPG will depend on the injuries and newcommers, but I see them making the playoffs over LAK or MIN point wise. There's no way that MIN's current win rate is sustainable. They may well get in, but they'll be last seed if they do at best. I see them falling just short.

[Flyerfan52]

LA is a big question mark this year. I don't know if their recent run is a preview or the end of a rerun.

If we both make it in, I don't want to see them in the 1st round, although that is probably the best chance to beat them.

Minnie will probably make a fool out of me, but I think they are on the start of a downward spiral. They have to survive the big games against the West teams, and I think that VAN exposed their weakness; playing against teams with big players.

WPG lost two players (Kane and Perreault), but only got Stafford back to replace the scoring. If they get some scoring back, they have an excellent good chance at a Wild Card spot.

SJ is done, but they don't quite know it yet. As soon as they trade away Marleau, then they are going rebuild. COL is done; they don't have the right mix to make up the missing points. VAN is questionable. I don't think that Miller will take them where Lou/Schneider could. Bieksa is a big loss to them. They are basically a 500 team against the West, and they have a lot of games to play.

I think CGY has a very good chance to finish 3rd in the Pacific.

EDIT:

Oh, and your suggestion for Richards makes sense if we were to lose GlenX by TDL. He adds playoff experience and can play a variety of lines for us. I'm not sure of whether I would want more for taking on that big contract, though. Has to make sense for both teams. I kinda like the basis of your deal, though.

I actually meant that trade scenario as 1 that could work for the Jets. Forgot to specify. Sorry.

 

It could work for the Flames regardless if we keep GlenX or not but there seems to be a prevailing mood of greed on this board where they want retained salary & a 1st &/or a top young player/prospect.

 

On further thought LA is likely going to have to best @ least 1 of the Flames or Jets for a playoff berth. Unlikely to help either that cheap if they have confidence they can make the playoffs & use Richards as a Black Ace.

Buffalo seems to be ready to add for next year to do a quick transition from picking 1/2 OA by giving the kid people to work with rather then taking out a long term lease in the basement. With Richards already in the minors they could move him from Manchester to Rochester if LA wants cap space now. Next year they add MacDavid/Eichel, E Kane & M Richards even if a Richards trade is done done after the season ends.

[CheersMan]

I actually meant that trade scenario as 1 that could work for the Jets. Forgot to specify. Sorry.

 

It could work for the Flames regardless if we keep GlenX or not but there seems to be a prevailing mood of greed on this board where they want retained salary & a 1st &/or a top young player/prospect.

 

On further thought LA is likely going to have to best @ least 1 of the Flames or Jets for a playoff berth. Unlikely to help either that cheap if they have confidence they can make the playoffs & use Richards as a Black Ace.

Buffalo seems to be ready to add for next year to do a quick transition from picking 1/2 OA by giving the kid people to work with rather then taking out a long term lease in the basement. With Richards already in the minors they could move him from Manchester to Rochester if LA wants cap space now. Next year they add MacDavid/Eichel, E Kane & M Richards even if a Richards trade is done done after the season ends.

 

You may want to go back and check the facts in the Richards post.  I don’t recall there being retained salary when requesting a 1st plus a top young prospect from LA.  You on the other hand are requesting LA eat 8.75M cap hit. 

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Please explain how the first proposal is GREED but yours is not.  Maybe it was the generous 7th rounder you threw in there that tipped the scales from GREED to fair trade?

[darth_henning]

At least got a point against the Wild tonight.

 

We're nicely in second in the pacific right now, but once again, everyone chasing us has games in hand on us (other than SJS and WPG).

 

I really hope WPG starts falling off. Then I'll feel a lot better, but right now things are getting a little TOO tight up here.

[Flyerfan52]

You may want to go back and check the facts in the Richards post.  I don’t recall there being retained salary when requesting a 1st plus a top young prospect from LA.  You on the other hand are requesting LA eat 8.75M cap hit. 

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Please explain how the first proposal is GREED but yours is not.  Maybe it was the generous 7th rounder you threw in there that tipped the scales from GREED to fair trade?

Some posts wanted up to 2.0 hit  retained, a 1st & top end youth like Pearson if you reread the thread.

 

8.75 spread over 5 years as opposed to their buyout penalty does not = greed. It merely clears 4.0 per year for LA while the trading team gets a pretty good player for a 4.0 cap hit.

[travel_dude]

I think there's a certain amount of anti-canucks bias. Statistically, Flames and Canucks are most likely to be 2/3 pacific in either order.

 

Top two ROW, top two pacific goal differential, most remaining games compared to oponents. Admittedly two major d-men are out for them, and how they respond to that will determine where they rank, but I think they won't drop off as bad as SJS is.

 

 

Yes, LAK and MIN are heating up and SJS is falling off, but at most LAK if they go on an absolute tear knock VAN or CAL down to the wildcard with WPG.

 

WPG will depend on the injuries and newcommers, but I see them making the playoffs over LAK or MIN point wise. There's no way that MIN's current win rate is sustainable. They may well get in, but they'll be last seed if they do at best. I see them falling just short.

I don't consider my VAN rambling to be bias. They are not a powerhouse against the Pacific (10-7-2) nor against the Central (6-7-0). Combine that with their injuries and I think they could drop any advantage in games-in-hand, as well as against Pacific opponents.

[Pyromancer]

19567

[darth_henning]

I wil be stunned if MIN doesn't at least meet 0.600 throught he rest of the season. Which is going to make things very interesting around here.

 

Its really a 5 horse race for 4 spots.

 

As long as we finish in the pacific 2nd or 3rrd we're ok. Let WPG and MIN battle over a wildcard with whoever else.

[robrob1974]

I wonder if playing Anaheim in the playoffs could be a good thing for us? I am not saying we would necessarily beat them, but it might allow us to actually get a win in Anaheim and break the curse. 

 

If we make the playoffs, I am happy with just being in right now. I know we want the best chance to win a series, but we're can very well be on either side of the playoffs. I don't want to jinx them by making predictions or preferring who we play. 

[kehatch]

The OOT scoreboard continues to be rude.  Vancouver won in OT tonight.  San Jose is currently up 3 to 1 half way through.  At least Winnipeg lost.  Regardless of what happens the Flames won't fall below third in the Pacific today or tomorrow.  But if we lose tomorrow and San Jose wins tonight and Saturday then we will be on the outside looking in on Saturday.  

[Zirakzigil]

WIth the Kings waking up, the Wild actually playing well and the Sharks blowing up things will be interesting. I said before that it will be at the trade deadline that things become more clear. I think the Flames can and should make it in. However if they dont do well on this upcoming 7 game road trip they will be out of the running really quick. You cant go on a 3-4 game losing streak with things this close. 

[darth_henning]

Well, one point back of second in the pacific. One more game played than Van. Looking OK so far.

 

Win tomorrow and we're also ahead of WPG in the wild-card race.

 

Just have to win our games, and we'll be OK.

[darth_henning]

Vancouver plays the Devils tonight, and the Wild battle Edmonton.

 

Both of them are probably getting two points baring surprises, so we need a win to keep pace.

[robrob1974]

Devils beat the Canucks. Helps us.

Go Oilers!

[xstrike]

Devils beat the Canucks. Helps us.

Go Oilers!

Dunno, Oilers beat Boston, so they have to be careful about not winning too much. They are already down 2-0, so I don't see them coming back.

[cfreining]

Looking back so far, our top 4 D has been healthy most of the time (only 2 man games for Russel).

 

I think that is the main reason we are in the current position and if they stay healthy, I am pretty sure the chances are very high to be inside the playoffs.