With The 14th Overall Pick - Who Do You Want? (2012 Version)

[geos]

i cant see feaster trading kipper for picks. maybe if we get a good young roster player as well but were not rebuilding so if were gonna trade kipper part of the return will have to help us win now.

There is no possibility of turning a Kipper trade into a win now strategy. Not possible. Nothing we get back will give us a better chance of winning now. However, in two years? Probably. Because I doubt Kipper re-signs here anyway (as we are about to experience with Olli) with anything other than a huge overpayment for a guy that will be 37 at the time.

But with Kipper on the doorstep of retirement, the reality is, and based on where the organization is at, we need to deal him for the future. Kipper will not win a Cup in Calgary. So move him. This is not a winning team next year. It simply is not. It's probably not for the next four years. We are really at step one of a rebuild, the denial phase just coming into the light. It's just that alot of fans seem to reject that thought (and I don't blame them). But that's our reality.

Anything in our system today simply replacing a retiring or declining current asset at best. We have no talent in that critical 24-28 prime zone. None whatsoever. We have one top line prospect, maybe 3 marginal top 6 guys in addition. We have no top 4 d-men in the system at all.

We have Tangs, Olli, Iggy all on the downside of their careers. Cammy is nearing that as well (though a few years off), he's certainly not getting better. Even our younger guys like GlenX are over 30.

We're looking really at a situation like the Blues were in in 2002-03. Lots of old guys, underperforming, stale room. Took seven years to recover, and arguable, they had more assets to deal at the time. This is going to be an ugly phase.

[C_worthy]

But I dont see Kipper being the difference between 14th and 5th.

I'm sorry, what?

You don't think Kipper and our #14 pick get us a #5 pick?

Seriously?

Kipper and the #14 would be massive overpayment to move up to #5.

If we traded Kipper and our first for the #1 maybe (though that is also overpayment), but for #5? Ummm, no thank you

[CastleMania]

I'm sorry, what?

You don't think Kipper and our #14 pick get us a #5 pick?

Seriously?

Kipper and the #14 would be massive overpayment to move up to #5.

If we traded Kipper and our first for the #1 maybe (though that is also overpayment), but for #5? Ummm, no thank you

yep, I agree with this. Kipper has the ability to take a bubble team and make them a contender right now. That's worth more than an upgrade from 14th to 5th. Kipper by himself is worth a 5th IMO.

[Zirakzigil]

That's not the same as sending a goalie who has given you a chance to win every night for the past decade to a team where he doesn't want to be (obviously a lot of assumptions are at work in this statement).

If this team starts mistreating players like Kipper and Iggy, just wait and see how easy it will be to sign FAs.

Hate to break it to you but the Flames have never been a prime destination for UFA's. Kipper will be given the option if the Flames decide to trade him, and if he says no then he will just be moved after July 1. Its business.

I'm sorry, what?

You don't think Kipper and our #14 pick get us a #5 pick?

Seriously?

Kipper and the #14 would be massive overpayment to move up to #5.

If we traded Kipper and our first for the #1 maybe (though that is also overpayment), but for #5? Ummm, no thank you

This is what I meant. There would have to be more pieces involved then just those assets. Kipper for the #5 overall will not happen. Kipper and #14 for #5 is overpayment.

yep, I agree with this. Kipper has the ability to take a bubble team and make them a contender right now. That's worth more than an upgrade from 14th to 5th. Kipper by himself is worth a 5th IMO.

Hes not. No team is going to trade a 35 year old goalie who only has 2 years left on his deal for a top 5 pick. To a contender in need of a goalie (Chicago) hes worth a first round pick and another asset. But to a team in need of multiple pieces (Toronto) hes not worth it. The Leafs are more then just a good goalie from being a contender.

[wally31]

If Crawford chokes in the playoffs we could do something like Kipper for Saad + 2nd + Crawford. Saad is looking more and more like a legit top 6 forward (similar to baertschi in development.... different style)

I just really believe this team needs to rebuild NOW. Stop waiting. Maybe they try one last time, and target the trade deadline as the final straw? I dunno.

[Zirakzigil]

If Crawford chokes in the playoffs we could do something like Kipper for Saad + 2nd + Crawford. Saad is looking more and more like a legit top 6 forward (similar to baertschi in development.... different style)

I just really believe this team needs to rebuild NOW. Stop waiting. Maybe they try one last time, and target the trade deadline as the final straw? I dunno.

The Hawks seem to be the most logical choice for Kipper if he is traded. However with them I would want their first coming back.

[PokernHockey]

According to Craig Buttons latest draft ranking Mikhail Grigorenko is going to go 14th. Man I would be pumped if he dropped that far. It seems like quite a plunge because of an injury. Does anyone know how far Backland fell with his injury? From my understanding they are similar injuries between the two.

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

[wally31]

The Hawks seem to be the most logical choice for Kipper if he is traded. However with them I would want their first coming back.

You would want their 1st and Saad? Or replace Saad with their first?

I think Saad might be one of the steals of the draft. Hopefully Chicago has early exit due to goaltending

____________________________________________

I saw Buttons mock draft rankings, but I think some of them are so far fetched. Maata isn't on there. Thrower isn't on there. and Grigs at 14? Grigs will be a top 5 pick.

What shocks me is seeing how drastically teravanin's stock has risen lately.

[PokernHockey]

I saw Buttons mock draft rankings, but I think some of them are so far fetched. Maata isn't on there. Thrower isn't on there. and Grigs at 14? Grigs will be a top 5 pick.

Thats why I was asking about Backlund for a frame of reference. We got him at 24th. I seem to recall hearing that he was top 10 ranked before his injury, but I cannot find any references to back that up. If he did drop from 10th to 24th for example, is 7th to 14th really that much of a stretch considering he basically missed his entire draft year?

[Crzydrvr]

Thats why I was asking about Backlund for a frame of reference. We got him at 24th. I seem to recall hearing that he was top 10 ranked before his injury, but I cannot find any references to back that up. If he did drop from 10th to 24th for example, is 7th to 14th really that much of a stretch considering he basically missed his entire draft year?

Backlund was rated 15th at the draft by Bob MacKenzie, and if there's any guy on the Made-for-TV side of the game that knows what they're talking about when it comes to prospects, it's Bob.

Mikael was a potential top 5 prospect heading into 2007, but knee injuries killed it for him. That and the fact that he wasn't really playing like a potential first liner at the time. Well, I guess he isn't now, but for a while there he looked quite legit. He still does, just not at the rate that you'd hope from a former top prospect.

[PokernHockey]

Backlund was rated 15th at the draft by Bob MacKenzie, and if there's any guy on the Made-for-TV side of the game that knows what they're talking about when it comes to prospects, it's Bob.

Mikael was a potential top 5 prospect heading into 2007, but knee injuries killed it for him. That and the fact that he wasn't really playing like a potential first liner at the time. Well, I guess he isn't now, but for a while there he looked quite legit. He still does, just not at the rate that you'd hope from a former top prospect.

Thanks for the info.

Based on that, it is not inconceivable that Grigorenko falls to 14th. Shouldn't be expected to happen, but its a smaller drop then Backlund was. Although the other thing Grigorenko has going in his favor is he is in N.A. whereas Backlund was in Europe.

[cross16]

I dont know, Grigorenko falling out of the top 10 would not be a shock to me. I think scouts and analysts have had the chance to look past the skill and see the inconistant efforts, the wholes in the overal game, and the fact he really isn't having a very good playoffs. You start to question the desire to be the best at the next level so you start to skip.

Personally, even at 14 i'd pass. I havn't liked Grigorenko for a while and I wouldn't have taken him in the top 10 even at the beggining of the year. At 14 i'd consider it, but there are several players I would still take above him, he has a very high bust probablity IMO.

[returnofthejets]

I guess it all depends on if he does slip back that far what has been selected ahead of him that would determine if he'd be worth the risk. In my hopeful opinion I hope someone does take him early and gets him off the boards leaving others that I'm more interested in available...not only for pick 14 but there's guys I'm more interested in at pick 9 for the Jets too.

A slip like this would be for all the negative reasons based on the player and not for outside factors like the caution around Russian born players. Cherapanov fell back quite a bit a few years back which was out of his control, if Grigorenko does the same it's more to do with the bust factor...which I don't think the Flames can really afford to gamble on right now (and no 2nd rounder at the moment could potentially mean this 1st round pick has a lot of weight on it).

[geos]

Thanks for the info.

Based on that, it is not inconceivable that Grigorenko falls to 14th. Shouldn't be expected to happen, but its a smaller drop then Backlund was. Although the other thing Grigorenko has going in his favor is he is in N.A. whereas Backlund was in Europe.

Not true. 7th to 14th isn't a smaller drop in real terms than 15th to 24th... there is way more skill difference between 7th and 14th than 15th and 24th. That's what you're missing. The skill set of anyone that is ranked top 5 by most scouts is so vastly superior to some ranked 15th that it's not the same at all.

Grigorenko will not be available at 14th. No way.

[PokernHockey]

It obviously all comes down to who else is available but assuming he is available at 14 I don't think there is anyone arguing someone else has a higher potential. Yeah he may also bust, but the "safe" none- bust picks are why we have guys like Greg Nemisz. Great guy, but he is not going to be a top line player. If you want a top line player who has low bust potential you need to pull an Oiler's. The flames farm seems to have quite a lot of bottom six guys in the stable, so based on that I think we need to go for highest potential even with the risk of him busting since we are low on blue-chips. Heck, even the safe picks don't always work out!

[PokernHockey]

Not true. 7th to 14th isn't a smaller drop in real terms than 15th to 24th... there is way more skill difference between 7th and 14th than 15th and 24th. That's what you're missing. The skill set of anyone that is ranked top 5 by most scouts is so vastly superior to some ranked 15th that it's not the same at all.

Grigorenko will not be available at 14th. No way.

Backlund: He was ranked 5th, fell to 15 in the draft ranking, then went 25th.

Grigorenko: Ranked 7th, fell to 14 in draft ranking, went... _____________

That's where I am saying he dropped further.

[Louis23]

I see Grigorenko as this year's Couturier.. he will fall... he will still be good at the end of the day because he has too much talent. I see him falling.. but clearly there is very little chance a guy like this will be available by rank 14th.

[Crzydrvr]

Backlund: He was ranked 5th, fell to 15 in the draft ranking, then went 25th.

Grigorenko: Ranked 7th, fell to 14 in draft ranking, went... _____________

Actually it's more like this:

Backlund: Top 5 --> 15th TSN --> 24th Actual Draft.

Grigorenko: Top 5 --> Not yet known --> ???

All we know right now is that Grigorenko was a top 5 prospect heading into the season. He was rated number 2 at times during the season, but we have not seen the TSN Rankings (or as I like to call it, ol' Bob's List). Basing that judgment on a Button list (while entirely credible, he was not around for 2007) is not fair because you are using separate lists that came from completely different people.

[kehatch]

if Grig is available at 14 the Flames would be crazy not to draft him. He is exactly what the Flames need in their system and is worth the risk.

[C_worthy]

If Faksa is available he is absolutely the pick. But I doubt he makes it that far. D often fall so perhaps one of the top guys falls to us.

I think moving up to get one of Grigerenko, Dumba, Reinhart, or Faksa would be worthwhile. Perhaps trading up to Washington's pick will be possible if one of those four drops down.

Dumba in particular. Calgary born, full package, RH shot ..... He could be picked early though.

Saw Dumba play for the first time last night - wow! Even though he isn't huge, he plays the game with unparalleled energy and passion - he's a beauty and his game will translate to the NHL, despite his size. I would definitely be willing to trade up to acquire him if he were still around in the 8-10 range.

[kehatch]

Saw Dumba play for the first time last night - wow! Even though he isn't huge, he plays the game with energy and passion - he's a bauty and his game will translate to the NHL, despite his size. I would definitely be willing to trade up to acquire him if he were still around in the 8-10 range.

I want a forward. But I would take Dumba in a second if we could get him. I think he goes top 5 though. But who knows.

[C_worthy]

I want a forward. But I would take Dumba in a second if we could get him. I think he goes top 5 though. But who knows.

lol! I agree - I want a forward too. But if we got Dumba, I would be a very happy camper. (and yes, he looks very top-5 but dare to dream, right?)

[geos]

lol! I agree - I want a forward too. But if we got Dumba, I would be a very happy camper. (and yes, he looks very top-5 but dare to dream, right?)

Dumba has a good game from time to time, but watch him over a few games and you'll see the issues. He doesn't have hockey sense, which is a problem from both the "can he play in the NHL" issue and the fact that the Flames have said the first thing they are looking for in players is hockey sense.

He is an average at best skater that tries to skate too much and do too much with the puck.

I'd take Reinhart over Dumba any day of the week and since Reinhart is projected to go later, he's easier to get. Reinhart has ten times the hockey sense and plays smart hockey... plus is a much better skater. And he's bigger. Ya, he doesn't have the flashy end to end skating of Dumba, but he's also never a liability, which you can't say about Dumba (who is much more like Phaneuf... makes the big plays but can be a real problem when he's not successfully with whatever move he's trying to pull).

Again, I'm sticking with Collberg, but if we go with a d-man, Reinhart is the guy. I'd rather have a Ryan Suter type than a Dion Phaneuf type (not saying either will be at those levels, but those are the player types that Reinhart and Dumba represent respectively).

[C_worthy]

Dumba has a good game from time to time, but watch him over a few games and you'll see the issues. He doesn't have hockey sense, which is a problem from both the "can he play in the NHL" issue and the fact that the Flames have said the first thing they are looking for in players is hockey sense.

He is an average at best skater that tries to skate too much and do too much with the puck.

I'd take Reinhart over Dumba any day of the week and since Reinhart is projected to go later, he's easier to get. Reinhart has ten times the hockey sense and plays smart hockey... plus is a much better skater. And he's bigger. Ya, he doesn't have the flashy end to end skating of Dumba, but he's also never a liability, which you can't say about Dumba (who is much more like Phaneuf... makes the big plays but can be a real problem when he's not successfully with whatever move he's trying to pull).

Again, I'm sticking with Collberg, but if we go with a d-man, Reinhart is the guy. I'd rather have a Ryan Suter type than a Dion Phaneuf type (not saying either will be at those levels, but those are the player types that Reinhart and Dumba represent respectively).

fair comments, but he just needs some coaching and guidance. These kids are only 18 - they can get away with things that they will never be able to do in the NHL. Which is why it is the tools that matter, more than the results.

I wouldn't be disappointed if we end up with Reinhart, but I am still hoping one of the Cs fall to us.

[browner3132]

To 7th will cost flames a fair amount your at 14th pick not 11th ! Maybe someone changed the topic heading ?