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Scoring Chances


ABC923

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I'm trying to figure out what is wrong with this team, so I thought I would dive a bit into a few statistics that are under discussed, namely scoring chances and high danger scoring chances.  Some of the results are a bit surprising.  

 

Best Scoring chance generators (In terms of % scoring chances): 1. Giordano (57.01%), 2. Hamilton (56.23%), 3. Frolik (56.17%), 4. Tkachuk (55.60%), 5. Hathaway (55.16%)

Scoring Chance Sieves (% Scoring chances): 1. Brouwer (46.28%), 2. Stajan (49.32%), 3. Lazar (49.85), 4. Stone (50%), 5. Brodie (50.05%)

Best High Danger Generators (Chances/60): 1. Monahan (14.83), 2. Gaudreau (14.34), 3. Ferland (13.81), 4. Hamilton (13.69), 5. Giordano (13.47)

High Danger Sieves: 1. Monahan (13.09), 2. Gaudreau (12.96), 3. Ferland (12.18), 4. Brodie (11.01), 5. Stone (10.83)

Best High Danger Differential: 1. Giordano (60.1%), 2. Hamilton (59.65%), 3. Stajan (57.89%), 4. Hathaway (57.72%), Jankowski (56.07%)

Worst High Danger Differential: 1. Brouwer (49.7%), 2. Hamonic (50.88%), 3. Stone (51.04%), 4. Brodie (51.47%), 5. Kulak (51.58%)

 

Best High Danger Converters (% of goals scored for flames from high danger chances while on ice): 1. Stajan (66.67%), 1. Hathaway (66.67%), 3. Ferland (62.5%), 4. Kulak (59.38%), 5. Gaudreau (59.09%)

Worst High Danger Converters (% of goals scored for flames from high danger chances while on ice): 1. Frolik (36.36%), 2. Giordano (42.11%), 3. Backlund (42.86%), 4. Hamilton (46.34%), 5. Lazar (46.67%)

 

Some observations:

-Only 3 flames have negative scoring chance differentials, and they all play on our 4th line. 

-Only 1 player is on the ice for more high danger chances against than for (Brouwer).  

-Our top line plays a bit loose, leading in high danger chance generation at both ends of the ice

-Our top pairing on defense are monsters at chance generation and suppression, but supremely unlucky in the conversion rate

-Stajan may leak chances, but he is surprisingly good at preventing high danger chances from occurring, and what chances are generated while on the ice seem to go in

-Hathaway is surprisingly effective at chance generation

-Frolik and Backlund are having a rough year in terms of conversion, but that likely reflects the level of competition they face

-Tkachuk has separated himself from his linemates, and is arguably the most effective player on the 3M line

-Our bottom 4 D all leak chances more than they should, at almost equal rates.  That said, they are all net positives.

 

 

 

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Is this all 5 on 5 data? I'm assuming so but thought i'd ask. 

 

It's good data and my conclusion is Flames don't need to panic. You are what your record is no doubt, but there are some good core pieces here but you need to upgrade your depth significantly so it's not so reliant on your top guys to produce game in and game out. Flames organization would be smart to be patient and avoid the knee jerk reactions. 

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