2012 Vs 2011 Standings Climb

[IpsoFacto]

Comparisons between this year and last year have been made in a number of threads. From a really high level, there are obvious similarities with the horrendous start at the bottom of the conference to a surge that brings us back into playoff contention. The question is whether our pattern of mid-to-late-season surges and missed playoffs will continue with this crew, or whether we start a new pattern? IMHO, this means picking apart the similarities and differences between the two seasons.

To avoid any illusions of bias, I'll state right off the hop that I think this year is different. Here is some of my rationale:

1. We're winning with injuries which is very different from last year where we won until we had injuries.

2. We have a very different roster (Brodie, Smith, Hannan, Butler, Stemps, Byron, Comeau, Horak are all new acquisitions with roles on the team...some very big).

3. Kipper is having a much better season imho.

4. The surge started earlier which gives us more time to get back into it.

5. There was less ground to make up (in large part because we started playing better earlier).

6. This is one I haven't seen mentioned yet, but we are in a VERY different position with the tie-breaker. Last year we hung on with shoot-out wins that put us in a losing position should we have ended up in a tie. This year there is only one team in the west that has fewer shoot-out wins then us (St Louis), which means that tie breakers are likely to fall in our favour (or at least move to the next criteria).

All these things combined, I feel a LOT more comfortable with this surge than I did with last year's. The one thing that worries me is our goal differential is still very poor and goal differential is a much better indicator of a team's ability than win/loss record. That said (and I haven't verified this yet), but I would make a guess that our goal differential has been pretty good over the past month and that we're still suffering from some early season blow-outs.

So...what am I missing or why am I out to lunch?

[C_worthy]

Much different this year.

At this point last year, we were 14th.

Last year we didn't get above 500 until Jan 24th. We didn't get to 3 games above 500 until Jan 28th, on the 51st game. At that time, 8th place was 6 games over 500 and there were still 11 teams with a better record than us. By the time the Flames had climbed to 8th (actually having the 8th best record), it was Feb 27th, game 63. They peaked on March 9th with a tie for the 7th best record at 35-24-9 but by that time they were flat out of gas.

Compare that with today, where the Flames are 3 games over 500 and 8th place is 5 games over, and this year there are only 9 teams with a better record (and there are still 45 games to play). The Flames could have the 8th best record in the conference as early as tomorrow. When they get back from this road trip, they will have played the fewest home games in the conference.

Despite a rash of injuries (as you pointed out), they have excess bodies and tons of depth. They will be able to be buyers at the deadline to improve the team (unlike last year), even though they will also be sellers.

So, very much unlike last year, they are not going to run out of gas.

[Ring-a-ding-dong-dandy]

this season the best teams are better and the worst teams are worse than this point last year too. this plays a part as well i think because it creates less of a log jam

[another_one_bites_the_dust]

We didn't get to 3 games above 500 until Jan 28th, on the 51st game.

Don't forget the Flames were 3 games above 500 on Oct 26 last year, Quite the tumble they took.

To consider they were sitting 5th in the West on a ALMOST daily basis from March 1st until March 9th (tied for 4th), you would think they were a shoe in for the playoffs with under a month to go. But they ended up losing 8 of their next 10 to finish the month of March off.

I think tonights game will be quite the test. The Flames went on a four game winning streak to end December off last year and were sitting @ 500 on Jan 1st. Only to get SPANKED at home, BY the New York ISLANDERS who I think were dead last. That was the 1st of four in a row on the losing end.

So, the only thing that really sells me is consistency, and I think they have been doing a better job of that and that they are beating the top teams in the league. Detroit twice now, only one of two teams to beat them in their own barn and the Nucks in their own barn too.

BUT, a win against the ISLES IS A MUST!!! for me to be CONVINCED there is a difference from this year to last!!!!

[C_worthy]

To consider they were sitting 5th in the West on a ALMOST daily basis from March 1st until March 9th (tied for 4th), you would think they were a shoe in for the playoffs with under a month to go. But they ended up losing 8 of their next 10 to finish the month of March off.

In points they were 5th, but they had played more games. In reality, they had the 8th or 9th best record most of that time, climbing as high as 7th once.

[another_one_bites_the_dust]

In points they were 5th, but they had played more games. In reality, they had the 8th or 9th best record most of that time, climbing as high as 7th once.

In reality had they kept their pace of the three game mini-series up, they would have finished 4th. Losing 8 of 10 in the thick of tight playoff race was what cost them. Had they gone 5-3-2 in that stretch, they would have had 100 points. But it doesn't really matter, can't change the past.

*EDIT miscount, was only 7 losses in their last 9 games to end March.....but two of those losses were against PHX and two were against ANA..... THREE of the those games were very winnable! Either way....It's not gonna happen again!

[C_worthy]

In reality had they kept their pace of the three game mini-series up, they would have finished 4th. Losing 8 of 10 in the thick of tight playoff race was what cost them. Had they gone 5-3-2 in that stretch, they would have had 100 points. But it doesn't really matter, can't change the past.

Yes that's true.

But that's exactly what's different this year - they don't have to go lights-out for 4 months - they are already in a similar position to where they were last year after a month of their hot streak.

So they can play the backup. They can play 4 lines. They can work guys like Babchuk into the lineup when there is a back-to-backer against the Isles (like tonight), giving others rest.

Also, there is less pressure on them than teams like LA or Nashville. They HAVE to make the playoffs, whereas no one outside Calgary thinks/thought the FLames would.

[another_one_bites_the_dust]

Yes that's true.

But that's exactly what's different this year - they don't have to go lights-out for 4 months - they are already in a similar position to where they were last year after a month of their hot streak.

So they can play the backup. They can play 4 lines. They can work guys like Babchuk into the lineup when there is a back-to-backer against the Isles (like tonight), giving others rest.

Also, there is less pressure on them than teams like LA or Nashville. They HAVE to make the playoffs, whereas no one outside Calgary thinks/thought the FLames would.

Feaster SAID we'll make the playoffs! So we will! haha

I was just going though those PHX and ANA games, I remember being SOOOO ticked at Bourque for being too lazy to chase after a loose puck when we had an empty net and ANA scored to finish us off!! But it brought back the memory of the jack GETZLAF and him gloving the puck out of the net when Stajan scored late in the 2nd only to have the goal disallowed. GOD I HATED GETZLAF FOR THAT!!!! His reaction to the media at 2nd intermission and after the game!!!!!

GRRRRRR!!!!! lol

[Pyromancer]

[C_worthy]

Yeah that was a pisser. And people can talk all they want about the Flames failing last year, or they were slow, or old, or <insert complaint-of-choice here> but the truth is that the whole season came down to those games against the Ducks. That and the Phx games. Very, very frustrating.

But the Flames will make thepalyoffs this year and all will be right with the universe again.

By the way... maybe this season is cosmic payback to Getzlaf and the Ducks for stealing a playoff spot from us last year!

[DL44]

Yeah that was a pisser. And people can talk all they want about the Flames failing last year, or they were slow, or old, or <insert complaint-of-choice here> but the truth is that the whole season came down to those games against the Ducks. That and the Phx games. Very, very frustrating.

But the Flames will make thepalyoffs this year and all will be right with the universe again.

By the way... maybe this season is cosmic payback to Getzlaf and the Ducks for stealing a playoff spot from us last year!

I honestly thought the 2 back-to-back losses to Minny in Dec was what buried them..

Just put em in such a massive hole to climb out of that they were unable to accommodate the valleys that ensued..

Those losses required the Flames floor the pedal the rest of the yr, and i don't think i've seen a team ever do that over that amount of time.

[C_worthy]

I honestly thought the 2 back-to-back losses to Minny in Dec was what buried them..

Just put em in such a massive hole to climb out of that they were unable to accommodate the valleys that ensued..

Those losses required the Flames floor the pedal the rest of the yr, and i don't think i've seen a team ever do that over that amount of time.

Not that am disagreeing with you because the Minny games were important too, but the Phx and Ana matchups were more direct.

Ana 99 pts

Phx 99 pts

Cal 94 pts

First game against the ducks, we lose in a shootout. Then twice Selanne ties the game with 2 minutes left and the Ducks went on to win both. Then the Getzlaf fiasco and they win in reg. 8 pts for Ana and 3 for Cal when it could very easily have been 7 or 8 for Cal and 2 or 3 for Ana.

Against Phx, 4 regulation losses.

They do better in either series and they are in. Better in both and they are one of the home teams for round one.

[IpsoFacto]

They do better in either series and they are in. Better in both and they are one of the home teams for round one.

This is the other thing people often forget. We were 5 points behind 4th (6 pts for having it outright). That's 3 wins. We were 3 wins from home ice advantage with a less talented, slower, less deep team.

"Blow it up"

[Louis23]

Last year :

1. We could score than 2 goals a game. Our offence was decent.

2. Our team really showed character. Had many comeback wins.

3. Had Tanguay scoring on every shootout to give us extra points. This year we seem to be struggling after 60 minutes.

We still didn't make it. There are positives every year, we shouldn't compare. Let's just see/judge how they play down the stretch.

[Robindr]

Yeah that was a pisser. And people can talk all they want about the Flames failing last year, or they were slow, or old, or <insert complaint-of-choice here> but the truth is that the whole season came down to those games against the Ducks. That and the Phx games. Very, very frustrating.

But the Flames will make thepalyoffs this year and all will be right with the universe again.

By the way... maybe this season is cosmic payback to Getzlaf and the Ducks for stealing a playoff spot from us last year!

I thought the Season was a failure due to the games against the Wild. We just couldn't buy a win with them last year and they were a team lower than us in the standings.

[senor_incendiarse]

I thought the Season was a failure due to the games against the Wild. We just couldn't buy a win with them last year and they were a team lower than us in the standings.

I don't put all of last seasons failures on how they played the Wild, was it bad yes. But I think you could put the failures against Anaheim (2 games blown late, lost in ot) and Phoenix as bigger parts. Put it this way if they split vs Phoenix and held on to those 2 games they would have had 102 and home ice first round. This year the fact that we are 3 months into the season and haven't played a game against the Pacific will be the test. By the time we finally play a Pacific team that division will take up more than half the remaining games. I think if they play well vs them they will make the playoffs.

[returnofthejets]

No heritage classic this year.

I think last year that game almost acted like a peak game while the jan/feb run was going on. I think once the heritage classic game was over the emotions, energy, and adrenaline really started to wear off and the team which had so much confidence going suddenly was fragile and worried. I think they had a lot of focus on the heritage classic game that the pressures of a playoff run was almost a non issue, but once the classic was over there was no distractions left to hide the reality of the playoff hunt they were sitting in.

[cross16]

No heritage classic this year.

I think last year that game almost acted like a peak game while the jan/feb run was going on. I think once the heritage classic game was over the emotions, energy, and adrenaline really started to wear off and the team which had so much confidence going suddenly was fragile and worried. I think they had a lot of focus on the heritage classic game that the pressures of a playoff run was almost a non issue, but once the classic was over there was no distractions left to hide the reality of the playoff hunt they were sitting in.

I agree 100%. It's almost like the external media, in preparation for the classic, suddenly realized "hey this is a playoff team now", and began to treat them like they were a playoff team. I still remember going to the Boston game right after the Heritage Classic, wathing it and asking what happend to the team I was watching a week ago... They were never the same team after that game as the one that was red hot prior to it, they never played the same style of game for any length of time afterwords.