darth_henning
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Posts posted by darth_henning
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If the Flames are fortunate enough to win the lottery and pick Matthews, I would suggest that both Bennett & Backlund would be available in trades for the right return.
IF we got Matthews then yes, its an option. But it would have to be one heck of a return.
Unless it was a legitimate starting goaltender, I don't really know what else we'd consider them expendable for.
The addition of Matthews gives us a top 6 player which would make trading for another somewhat of a lateral move rather than an improvement. .
With the expansion draft coming we don't want to have a top 4 D who will be exposed from a trade.
What else did you have in mind?
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I don't feel that any of us can deal in absolutes.
There's just too many Cap variables that are up in the air right now.
How large of raises do Colborne, Gaudreau, & Monahan receive?
Can BT move any of the 5 or 6 "unfavorable" contracts?
That said, I can see the Flames being able to afford at least $4.5M for a starting goalie, maybe as much as $6.5M if several things fall into place.
I feel that Orito can be re-signed on the cheap for less than $1M.
His required QO is only $660k.
This.
Even at the high end for Gaudreau/Monahan and an average-ish contract for Colborne, we still have space for 4.5 mil for goal.
Yes, that's going to limit our upgrade options on RW, but securing a starter is WAY more important than a top 6 winger if we don't draft one. Scoring hasn't been the issue, goals against ha been.
Ortio I suspect falls roughly around the 800K range if I had to guess.
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If you win you play makes sense....to a point.
You don't want to only play a goalie if he's winning because then it gets in their head, and for the same reason you can't sotop playing them after a single loss.
That's why I like a rotation idea. They each know they have a stretch of games coming up and can focus on doing as well as they can without worrying about their future.
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Sorry "alternating games" was the wrong term. I didn't mean swap literally every game. I just meant a regular rotation of playing time like two years ago.
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I get what you're saying. But a good backup goalie gives his team a chance to win. I get the numbers and having a 2.00 GAA in about 5 of his losses should get him a few more wins, but the reality is, teams play different in front of their backups, and we aren't necessarily accounting for coaching changes where Hartley may have decided to be more defensive in the game which would hinder the output in offence.
All I was saying is, his win-loss itself is a decent record for a backup.
Another variable we aren't looking at is the fact that this record and GAA/S% is in a condensed sample size. If a starter stays healthy and Ortio is backup, his games will be more spread out and who knows what he will be like with sporadic starts.
That's a very important question. And none of us know the answer to it.
Personally next season I'd sort of like to see us start the season like we did with Hiller and Ramo in 14/15, Essentially alternating games.
That way both goalies are somewhat rested, but also not out of action very long. See how they both perform. If Ortio steps up and we wind up with a tandem? great. If he is outplayed, then drop his games back and hope he can keep fresh.
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Even ignoring Ortio's numbers before his last call up he still only has a SV% of .909. That is the same as Ramo's full season number and is far from stellar. But the reality is his season long SV% is .903. That puts him below Talbot, Bernier, Bobrovsky, Miller, Pavelec, Smith, etc. In most cases well below. All teams in the bottom, which pretty much eliminates the 'team in front of him is bad' excuse.
I know JJ doesn't like the timing of these comments. But this isn't the first or only time people have been saying this. We were saying it after a good game. We are saying it now.
OH I'm not going to claim that he's been stellar, just better than his win-loss numbers would suggest by themselves.
He's performed (since call-up) at a decent backup save%. Not great, not terrible. But also not wonderful. Merely acceptable.
The difference between him and Ramo is that Ramo is near the end of his career in the NHL, Ortio is just starting. He's put up better numbers in other leagues, and his numbers in the NHL may well improve.
If they do? Fantastic. If they don't? He's still a backup that won't hurt the team. Roughly 50% as a backup isn't stellar, but it is fine for that role.
If our future in net is Ortio, enjoy the bottom ever year. Ortio is not a starter in this league, backup maybe but not a #1 goalie.
Currently? No.
The future? Unlikely, but I wouldn't be predicting ceiling on a goalie who has only played a stretch of NHL games greater than 5 once.
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As a back up goalie that's not a terrible record. He also had somewhere between 3-5 games where he only let in 2 in losses.
When we had Kipper, if our backup was able to do that, we would have had a rested Kipper and an extra 17 points
The win-loss for a ratio can be very misleading IMHO.
A goalie can post a 9.6 and 1 GA and get a loss if the other guy gets a shutout, while posting a win with a 0.56 and a 7 GA in an 8-7 game or river hockey. Which game did the goalie play better?
In point of fact on Ortio, these are his games since callup.
0.818 - 2 GA - L0.946 - 2 GA - L0.941 - 2 GA - O0.800 - 5 GA - L0.920 - 2 GA - L0.035 - 2 GA - W0.913 - 2 GA - O0.923 - 2 GA - W0.880 - 3 GA - L0.886 - 4 GA - W0.966 - 1 GA - W0.893 - 3 GA - O0.920 - 2 GA - L0.917 - 2 GA - W0.897 - 3 GA - L1.000 - 0 GA - W0.808 - 5 GA - O11 of 17 games have had 2 or fewer goals against. That's not bad in any way shape or form.And yet his record in those 11 games? 5-4-2. Only slightly better than 50%. Not stellar, but pretty decent.In the other 6 games (with 3+ goals) he has a record of 1-3-2 which is a lot more logical when that number of goals is going past you. But still lower than I'd like to see when his record in 3 goal games is 0-2-1.His consistency needs work, but on the whole, in his first real sustained taste of NHL action, he's looking like a capable backup. Whether he progresses to more than that? Remains to be seen. -
I am thinking that the Flames will offer him to a 1 (maybe 2 max) year contract as a backup for somewhere in the 800K to 1 mil range, but not much more.. If he gets the opportunity he will still have to earn a better contract next time, and he's crazy if he holds out thinking he will get more somewhere else in the NHL... He is still young enough to have the potential to be a starter, but he has a ways to go to prove that he is capable... I hope that he does, and that he can work his way into being a #1 for the Flames, but he ain't there yet....
I agree with this. Though I'd be surprised if we went as high as 1 mil.
He's played himself into the backup role. Its up tto him to earn a position as part of a tandem or a starter. He's not there yet, but he deserves the chance to do so.
That said, while his wasn't the world's best goaltending last night, our defence was equally bad in letting chances get to him.
Could he have done more and won the game? yes. But so could the rest of the team.
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That's a fair point.
And really, him being a starter isn't a necessity, just one of those "it would be really nice if we had that problem" thing.
I think most have been talking for a couple seasons now about Gillies backed by Ortio being our cup-winning tandem. And I'm good with that if Gillies plays up to where we expect him to be.
Ortio looks like he can easily handle up to about 30 games per year at this point and give us a good chance to win most of them. That's all he need's to be able to do to have a place here long-term.
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Watched the replays (missed the game). That was not a good night by either goaltender let's be honest here. Defense didn't exactly help on our end either.
Ortio still needs to work on consistency, but he's better than he has been in the past. He's had some rough games, but its the first time he's had sustained NHL playing time ever, so I wouldn't panic yet, but he needs to be able to keep his bad games, less bad.
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That is completely true, except, opposite, from my current understanding of proposals.
4 D can be retained. I'm saying we need 4 young core D. We have 2. TJ Brodie and Hamilton. We're in no danger of losing a young core D in the expansion draft. And if we were, we would trade a veteran.
1 G can be retained. We have 2 strong prospects in Gillies and Ortio. With Schneider showing signs he may have been a sleeper. Not a great time to bring in an older goalie, unless they're an upgraded prospect. If one of our prospects turn out, and they probably will by then, any veteran goalie brought in will be left unprotected.
D and G both take a Long time to develop. But D is a long, committed process. Goaltending has a Voodoo component. Kipper being a prime example. And there are always bucketloads available if a team is willing to gamble on them. Not so with D.
6 forward and 3 D can be retained. OR 8 total players.
So to protect a 4th D we have to protect TWO fewer forwards.
That's not a good idea.
Any veteran goalie brought in will be unprotected. Yep. And? We don't need a veteran for 10 years. We need him for the next couple until Gillies,Macdonald, Schneider or Ortio can take that role.
We're not going to land a top-end goalie so the chances of losing him isn't going to be high. An expansion team will want the best goalie they can get unprotected, a couple backups and a few development prospects. Its unlikely we lose one at all.
D is a long term project. One for which we have a variety of candidates. No, not next year. But within a couple or three when it really matters.
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Agreed. At this point a Loss only helps our draft position.
We basically know that Ortio can play close to league average since call up, so is probably a reasonable player to sign on a 1 year "show me" contract for next season.
2 games more or less at this point isn't going to change that unless he keeps getting shutouts. And even then its a marginal uptick in dollar value.
Hiller and Backstrom are both likely done in the NHL at the end of this season, no point in punishing them for that. It happens to every player eventually. Give them a sendoff.
Obviously this would be different if we were in the wildcard mix, but we're not.
As to Ramo for next year. Had he not been injured and finished out the year with his play, we probably would have re-signed him. But we wouldn't have gotten this look at Ortio.
Personally, I'd rather take a chance on Ortio (who has similar numbers, albeit in fewer games) as he has the potential to stick around for a few years and contribute. While Ramo is a solid quantity and not likely to improve or be here long term.
Additionally, that injury will take months to rehab. He may not even be ready to start the season (I've heard rumors of Oct/Nov, which is on the higher end of rehab time, but not impossible). How he plays after an injury like that is also an unknown. That leg will always be a little weaker from now on, and that could definitely impact his play style in the negative.
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If you're talking about now? definitely agree. But I wouldn't put starter above his ceiling. Not yet anyway.
Goaltending is still the biggest weakness for sure. Its basically why we aren't in playoff contention.
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Do you prioritize:
Goalie
Wing
?
I agree with Deeds' assessment, but would remove D
Goalie
RW
D
Backup Goalie
LW
We have a very solid top 3. Jokkipakka who's looking like a serviceable 4D, and an expansion draft pending.
I don't load up on another top 4 D right now, we have depth, and we have a few promising prospects. We hold firm on that till after expansion .
I dont think the flames would be so bad with orito and ramo in net next season. Ramo showed us what he can do from christmas onto the time he got injured. While im not saying hes the next coming of kipper, he showed us that he could give us league average goaltending during that time. ...
The problem is his injury. That's a MAJOR concern. We at this point don't know when he'll be back, or how he'll play once he does.
Ortio is still a somewhat unknown quantity. Yes, he's done well in backup-level playing time this year since call-up. But if Ramo comes back and has a Hiller-esque season? I don't want to risk Ortio being the only replacement option and him not being up to taking the starter's reigns.
We can take a risk on one goalie, but need something steadier for the other. To me that rules out Ramo completely.
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Maybe I am being too hard on Ortio but he has not shown me that he is ready to be a starter.
No, I agree.
Right now he's shown himself to be probably a suitable backup, who MAY progress to starter with time. But definitely not ready yet.
If he plays himself into a starter position next year, that's fantastic, but thats a bonus, not an expectation.
A smart GM would be looking for a true #1 or even a better than average starting goaltender for this team. Rumours and indications are that the Flames are going to be looking so good on them.
In theory, also agreed. The problem is cost.
If we can clear out some of our 18 mil of dead cap, then that's the first position we need to look to upgrade.
But proceeding on the assumption we're stuck with it, or most of it, we're probably looking at landing a league-average stop-gap for a year or two before either Gillies is ready or we can afford to upgrade.
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I'm not absolutely sold that Hartley is a bad coach.
Many of our team IS having career years, and we are one of the fitter teams in the league.
Hartley has made some very bad decisions with personnel use (goaltenders, Vetrans etc).
But I think that the first step is replacing our goaltending coach and starting tender (Ortio can stay if he's willing to take 660-750), and finding an assistant coach for special teams.
If we still continue to underperform through the first half of next season he must be replaced.
He's on thin ice, but he's also had some issues to work with with what's available (6 contracts tying up 18 million sort of force you to play most of them)
I'm no longer a fan of his though and have my doubts.
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Ok, I want Matthews as much as the next guy, but Hiller doesn't have to make it THAT obvious.
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Sad to think what this season would look like if ALL of our goalies hadn't crapped the bed the first 10 games they each played.
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Back to goaltending:
Watched Ortio last night, was impressed.
He was boring. IMHO.
In other words, great puck control (I know he's let a few go in the past), great rebound control.
Against arguably the best team in the league, he gave the Flames a chance to win, and kept things Un-insteresting.
It wasn't just the saves. It was the passes behind the net that kept the Flames shot count above Chicago's.
It was the rebound control. That also comes with the team starting to get a sense of his habits.
Darling was the better goaltender that night, but not by a mile.
I would say that Ortio, at 24, was the better goaltender than Darling at 24. (now 27).
JMHO
I missed the game, but watched the goal re-plays from the Gifs that get posted on Reddit.
I'd argue the first two goals (that horrible giveaway by Brodie and a multiple deflection in traffic) aren't really on Ortio. At least not enough to be of concern.
Is he a top level starting goalie right now? No. But is he giving us a consistent chance to win if we were to play well in front of him? Yes.
His performance has slipped back a little since call-up started, but on the whole, it hasn't been bad.
Hopefully he'll take a qualifying offer or a hair more (660-700K) to compete next year.
I think he could step up into a starter role given time, but he's no there yet. But he's showing more consistency and promise than he has before. and that's exactly where you want development to be at this point.
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I think its unfair to say that D is our bigest hole.
Gio will age down the lineup for sure, but will still be top 4 for another 4-6 years.
Brodie and Hamilton are 25 and 22 respectively.
Jokkipakka is looking like a strong 5 to decent 4.
Kulak, Culkin, Wotherspoon and Nakladal are all bottom pair ready or close.
Anderson and Kylington are likely top 4 and will be ready in 2-3 years to start o the second pairing.
D is by far our strongest part of the system.
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Depends how they go about getting a goalie or RW. They could go like STL two at 2.5M a piece. RW could be filled by draft and a trade for a player no yet making big dollars. There will always be offsets required depending on where a GM decides to spend his money.
Assuming the 14 mil for the John-ahan pairing that we all expect, Colborne for an optomistic 1.5 and filling RW with the lowest cost options (draft and two ELC) there's no way we have the money to afford Hamonic without clearing salary with any kind of decent upgrade in goal.
Unless we manage to clear Wideman+
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Everything that could go wrong for our D corps did IMO and until lately it was horrendous. Yes Giordano took some time to get going. Brodie's injury was a blow. Hamilton has holes in his game and still does. Wideman has flat out been terrible. Russell was not as effective as last season. Engelland has been the steady eddy. Smid shouldn't even be playing anymore.
I like the group we have now more so than what we started with this season.
Basically this, and others have gone into more detail on the same.
We ere hampered by several injuries, Hamilton's acclimitization and 4 not great contracts. That will improve somewhat next season, but really is still a work in progress.
I don't think you ever give up on trying to get a player such as Hamonic and his contract however not at the expense of Hamilton. If we could unload Wideman, Smid and Engelland BT could try and put a deal together with NYI.
Hamilton is not perfect and yes is another big player that doesn't play big but has other good attributes. My main beef is him getting beat to the outside, he isn't very good at anticipating the timing and need to turn and get back. He really needs to work on that aspect of his game.
Could you imagine: Giordano & Hamonic and Brodie and Hamilton and Jokipakka & Nakladal, this would be an awesome defense.
That would indeed be an amazing defence. Potentially the best in the league.
But come expansion we'd be guarunteed to lose one of our top 4.
We can only protect 3. If we go to protect 4 then we wind up exposing forwards we can't afford to lose.
I'd love to get him, but its the wrong time to go after him. I think Jokipakka can become that mobile, defence first player we need. And he and Hamilton are similar ages and can grow together.
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I would like to mention that we were told with our acquisition of Hamilton, that our D was on paper, looking to be one of the strongest in the NHL. ( the keywords on paper and looking should be in italics).
So how did we end up with the worst defensive team in NHL?
Does this point the big finger directly at our Goaltenders and Goaltending coaches?
Yes it does.
We are 15th in the league in shots against per game.
We are dead last (by a margin) in save percentage.
Admittedly our D has not been top-tier as advertised (let down by a poor start, Brodie's injury, and a generally weak bottom pairing until recently), but its about league average.
Which means the fact that our GAA is league worst is squarely on the men between the pipes.
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So a summary of the last two games.:
Hartley: "Ok Ortio watch this..."
Backstrom plays.
Hartley: "And that's how you play like a future starter."
Hiller plays.
Hartley: "And that's how you DON"T play. Got it?"
Ortio: "Got it boss."
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Goaltending
in Flames Talk
Posted
Congratulations to Backstrom for finishing his NHL career with a win.
Wouldn't be adverse to him being a goalie coach here next year for whoever we have.