cccsberg
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Posts posted by cccsberg
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No big deal... I think that unless Ortio has a meltdown (possible) and Hiller gets another shot and really puts a good string together (not likely), Hiller's time in the NHL could be at an end... I could be wrong, just don't see the Flames, or any other team giving him a contract at 34 years old with his record... He might be better off trying to get a KHL contract for another season or two...
Hiller's blocker style doesn't do him any favors, and he could/should have made an effort to alter it to maybe more of a hybrid over the last few seasons in my opinion... But sometimes you can't teach an old dog new tricks...
All things considered, Ortio did quite well last night posting a .946 SV%, let's hope he can keep it up... He should now be given a string of games to see if he can consistently play like he did last night... Wouldn't that be something if he could take the opportunity, tighten up the rebounds, and turn it up a notch...
I have limited expectations, but he best case scenario would be, If he can deliver, and he manages to earn another contract, then that could potentially solve part of the Flames goal tending puzzle for next season... Right now it's a puzzle with pieces missing from the box...
Agree pretty much, except that I saw last night that Ortio's rebound control was very, very good.
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Yeah, he stood on his head during that stretch last year then had a stinker against the Ducks and was gone. I think that was the first indication BH had no faith in him. Such a short leash for a guy who delivered 4 straight wins. Oh well, hope he comes up big tonight and keeps the net.
I'm not sure that "he was gone(lack of faith)" but that he was an injury fill-in and Hiller? came back. In any case, tonight is a good opportunity and I hope he plays well and gets some more games. I would love to see him earn a new contract and be an option for a position with the Flames next year.
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1989, CGY picks Manderville #24, DET picks Lidstrom at #53.
1994, CGY picks Dingman #19, DET picks Holmstrom at #257.
1998, CGY picks Fata #6, DET picks Datsyuk at #171.
1999, CGY picks Saprykin #11, DET picks Zetterberg at #210.
I stopped looking after this.
The biggest reason is that Detroit has had a superb set of European scouts for a long time, well before many other teams clued in to or accepted that Europeans could actually play the North American (Canadian) game. As you will notice from your list, two are Swedes and two are Russian. Even now Calgary seems to be reluctant to emphasis Europeans, and still are loathe to draft Russians, even though their skill level is often way above Canadians, on average.
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There is a bit of a difference between Poulin and Dubnyk. To be completely honest, it may not be fair, but Poulin probably has 5-10 games left to show what he can do. So yes, those games matter. And they're not currently helping.
Gillies is anticipated to be back in 2-3 weeks (original timeline of early March). No, he's not developing (obvisouly) right now, and no, I don't blame that on the Flames. However, he didn't show much development in his last year of college either. No we know why...a degenerative hip flexor. Had they signed him a year earlier (like they probably should have with a goalie they supposedly have faith in), and properly diagnosed his condition, he either wouldn't have needed the surgery, or it would have been more minor, and completed by now.
Soooo.....room for...improvement.
So realistically, Poulin's days are numbered. Nothing against him. Just a bad time to regress.
Ortio, we don't know what he is. All we know is that he is capable of far more than he has shown in the Extremely limited action the organization has given him this year. Blame that on him, blame it on whatever...
I don't think Gillies, or Ortio, or Poulin, can be truly evaluated this year. That's unfortunate, and that's why I think they need to look at improvements to their development system.
I think he could have been an NHL starter if handled differently. But I'm probably alone there. Glad to see he's made his way back to the edge of the NHL.
Hmm, Gillies back early March? I had been thinking he was gone for the season. That would be good news, though I'm guessing the Flames will be very cautious in bringing him back slowly.
I agree Poulin not likely with the Heat next year, that's why I'd like to see him up on the Flames, along with Ortio for the rest of the season. Have them fight it out to see if either is an option for backup duties there next year. Hiller, to me is as good as gone.
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Last night's D with Nakladal and Wotherspoon in, and Smid, Russell and Wideman out looked the best I've seen in a long while for the Flames. It will be interesting to see if it continues against Anaheim and the LAK, both of whom are much tougher, bigger and way more physical than Vancouver. It will be a good test.
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I wouldn't be afraid to have Irving as a back up here.
I think that ship has sailed. We need to do better.
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Well....I'm glad you got a good chuckle....I don't listen much on here, that's true. But I do read from time to time. Not sure what you're talking about with the Wild, really.
The future of the Wild is Darcy Kuemper, and Darcy's having his best year ever:
https://www.nhl.com/player/darcy-kuemper-8475311
Dubnyk's career was revitalized there, and while he is slightly off of last year's phenomenal numbers, he is still performing significantly better than any goaltender in our system.
Their prospects, Michalek and Khakonen, continue to show improvement this year.
And the icing on the cake: Their top AHL goalie is having the best year of his career. On a team like ours, it would easily be call-up worthy.
You may have heard of him:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?encode=TRUE&pid=77285
On your original, long post you seemed to be focusing on ST changes i.e. Poulin, which was my point with Dubnyk. Also you commented on no development with Gillies.. Really. Like I said, a good laugh. In any case, YES, we need to bring someone in as our (hopefully) LT guys still at least a year or two away (in an ideal world). I would like to see Ortio and Poulin given the rest of the season to see if either steps up and we can utilize them as the Flame's back-up for next year.
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I'd love to see Gillies/McDonald pass Reimer in 2 years but Reimer is a 27 year old with over 200 starts and a .914 save percentage on a bad hockey team. To assume Gillies / McDonald will pass him in 2 years is very optimistic. I hope it happens but I'd hedge my bets.
We agree on hopes for our prospects. As for the interim, why not just re-sign Ramo for 1 or 2 years. We already know what he brings, albeit the injury is new. I believe he's the most likely, and best option we currently have. If we can bring in another AHL-level guy with promise that would be good too.
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DD, thanks for posting all this great info on DD
Some really interesting approaches Francilia has there. And very impressive record.
https://twitter.com/AFRANcilia
The Flames need someone/something like this, imho. Maybe not exactly this person or this format. But they're simply NOT developing their goalies well.
First and foremost....the organization is not even keeping their goalies healthy. That matters, especially for development. No healthy goalies, no development. Sure, you can say it's luck. But we're talking major season-ending injuries to Ortio, Gillies, Ramo, and even Hiller's had his share. I already know many people will say it's not fair to blame this on the organization. But it's not about blame. It's about whether they can make improvements. And the answer is almost definitely yes. And I don't mean by keeping three goalies on the Flames and hoping two stay healthy.
As well, we're just Not seeing goaltender development. The latest victim might be Poulin. Some on here were saying that Poulin is the new Ortio. Which is ridiculous considering Ortio's talent level and Poulin's age. But, at any account, Poulin is Already regressing after half a season in our system:
http://theahl.com/stats/gamebygame.php?id=3117
Gillies? no development
Ortio? Barely played, and no development for two years really.
It's not fair to point fingers. It's really not, and I know that.
But I think it is fair to say that the Flames can, and probably should, make improvements in their goaltender development system.
Sure there is always room for improvement, in EVERY area. However most of your points were kind of comical, and hey, a good laugh is a good thing. Thanks. No need to refute all your points, not sure you'd be listening.
Oh, BTW, I guess you overlooked how terrible the Wild are with their goalies. They are absolutely destroying their Vezina-level goalie this year..... His Sv% and GAA are dropping precipitously.
I think it's a mistake to give Gillies or McDonald a clear path, they should have to win the job or steal it away from someone. Internal competition is healthy.
Of course competition is healthy. They will be seriously competing against each other, plus whomever the Flames already have in place. Its just that if they likely will be ready in 2 years, its poor management to have another (lessor) guy signed for 2 additional years. Doesn't that kind of sound familiar? Like, exactly the problem we have at the moment with a bunch of guys that needed to be gone last year?
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Maybe but look what that gave the Flames this year. Top 5 goalie cost and worst goaltending in the league. I'd give Reimer term, mostly because I like him but also because it would reduce his cost.
Look, in two years we're going to have two young goalies, at least, chomping at the bit waiting for their opportunity. Giving anybody 4 years is a mistake unless its clear he can be our #1 for the foreseeable future.
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http://flames.nhl.com/club/m_news.htm?id=868445
Ortio has been called up. This helps support the people arguing that the Earned not given moto has gone by the wayside this year. Poulin deserved the call up.
This is probably Ortio's last chance.
Just the opposite. Hiller gets the Flames net, Poulin gets the Heat net. The call-up (Ortio) gets to sit and eat popcorn, but makes a bunch more $s doing so....
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I actually think he might have broken his leg with the way it buckled and how he immediately reached for it and couldn't put any weight on it. I'll be pretty surpised if they get Ramo back even this season, I think that looks like a pretty horrible injury.
I have to acquire with rob that i'm not so sure it would be Ortio that would come up, might be Poulin. Only reason to call up Ortio is to give him one more shot at the NHL level but given that he isn't playing well in the A, not sure that is going to happen.
A goalie option i've beomcing more intrigued about is JImmy Howard in Detroit. His contract sucks, (3 more years at 5.25/season) but I think you oculd get Detroit to eat part of that. He isn't getting dealt somewhere for full value, and if they ate 1.6 you could have him for 3.6 for 3 years. Thats decent value and you roll the dice that he gets back to the above avg starter level he was just a season or two ago. Worst, case you've got reasonably priced stability in net while you try and develop Gilles so you can bring in a decent backup at sat 2 mill or less and run with 2 goalies.
I would agree in that I'm wondering about a leg break too. Its looking bad for Ramo, but that may be good for us. Worst case it forces us to see what one of our younger guys/Hiller has to offer before we go into the post season with no goalies signed. Time for them to prove their worth.
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I don't think we have any prospects that deserve to be top 50. I think we have some good guys, but there are a lot of very high caliber prospects out there.
Nothing to be ashamed of. Monahan and Bennett have graduated. We turned last seasons first into Hamilton. But a lack of high picks in the system for the last few seasons will limit your presence in the top 50.
Disagree, I think we have several guys that are Top50, whether Button agrees or not. Examples given by others: Gillies, Kylington, Anderson and etc... You will also notice that the list includes NHL players like Duclair and Domi, but not our NHL young players, like Bennett.
I'm kind of not surprised, as draft pedigree seems to be big here, but that's not unexpected. The thing is, what are the criteria and what has each shown SINCE draft day to warrant their placement? In that regard the list is a bit useless. Give it a couple years and we'll see what we have.
It hurts because we could've drafted Thatcher Demko but let him slip to the Canucks.
It's also a bit disappointing to not see Poirier and Klimchuk on that list because they are 1st round picks after all.
We have McDonald, and Gillies, both arguably already better than Demko. You believe this list makes it different? Same with the others...
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We drafted Sven Baertschi whose talent is "offense-first hockey" and then we don't let him be that. Baertschi was an unstoppable offensive weapon in the WHL achieving 2-points-per-game in his final season. Instead of encouraging him to continue developing his talents so that he can make some noise at the NHL level, we muted him. Your example that Baertschi's defensive game is his strength with the Canucks is exactly an example of squandering talent because he's not scoring anywhere near his original potential. Baertschi is now a good two-way player but lost his high end offensive talents. Congrats?
Thus, just draft a two-way player and then provide all the support for him to be the best two-way player he can be.
Sure, this means Baertschi would've been a 40-goal scorer or a bust. That's fine though. That should be understood the very moment we decided to draft him, or any player we decide to draft like him in the future.
You seem to be under the illusion that Baertschi would be able to translate his 2 ppg Junior game to the NHL at the same level. That was never going to happen. Look at Gaudreau, he is not translating his 2 ppg play in a better league to the NHL either. We never stifled SB at all, but tried to get him to be consistent and effective in all aspects of the game. Even if you cheat on the ice and pile up the points, but are outscored because you're crap in your own end, that is not helping.
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My entire argument is "why miss out on talent". Like, why draft a highly offensive player and then "miss out on it" by promoting aspects of his game that he doesn't excel rather than the aspects of his game that are elite. And then you reply my post by asking "why miss out on talent?"
If a guys only talent is scoring in a league that basically doesn't play defence (the Q) then they'll have very little to no value once the demands are higher, and the opposition actually defends.
http://www.tsn.ca/tsn-hockey-s-top-50-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.436669
Button just put out his list of top 50 NHL affiliated prospects, and we don't have a single player on the list. Most of that is because our top young talent us already playing in the NHL, but I think it also speaks to the lack of top end talent in our system.
As we all know from his annual draft lists, being on his list is one thing, becoming a top player is something else altogether.
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Working on their D... my goodness.
Flames: Hi kid, you are a one dimensional high end scorer but don't like that. We want you to be a responsible two-way player.
Prospect: What? I'm not an effective two-way player. I excel at one dimensional high end scoring!
Flames: We will provide you with all the development and support for you to become what you are not.
Prospect: What? Why did you draft me then?
Flames: Because you are a one dimensional high end scorer.
Had a good laugh, that you seem to think responsible 2-way play doesn't matter. Wow....
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What we are seeing, is regression. With too many players. Not even stagnation, but recurring issues of regression:
Baertschi (then progression when he leaves)
Brossoit (then progression when he leaves)
Granlund (almost does better when he's with the Flames, by some standards)
Ortio (almost does better when he's with the Flames, and played, by some standards)
Poirier
Kulak
Kylington (slowing down with each game)
Wotherspoon
Elson
Arnold (imho)
Klimchuk (imho)
Sielfoff (imho)
That's a big list, with some good, and even high-profile prospects in it.
We can't expect all of them to continue improving. Obviously some will plateau and stagnate. That's just the odds.
But for regression to be noticeable....
Pretty big list.
The total list is nonsense. I don't see Regression in a single one of those players. All those players are continuing to develop, and though their season to season PTS may vary widely for a number of reasons, I hardly think that is the "key" to development.
Probably the only thing truly Regressing is some misplaced expectations on the part of some fans. It's really quite hilarious, many wanted the "Detroit" model of over-simmering but when a player just doesn't blast their way quickly throu the process we think they are a failure. Get a grip.
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The Flames made some mis-steps, yes, but it was Baertschi's attitude and unwillingness to change that failed him. He preferred to get his dad to support his whining then stated he was going to refuse to re-sign. Not until the Flames dumped him and Vancouver basically treated him he same as the Flames did it start to dawn on him that he had better change or it was all over. Some guys get so hung up on early accomplishments they need a severe wake-up call before they get the message.I think they failed each other. It is a business and everyone is different. Tough love doesn't work for everyone. That's where they handled him wrong. Some players get motivated in other ways.
Yes Baertschi was entitled, but the organization also needed to handle him differently.
I compare it to they way they handled Monahan who the coddled and was BH's secret love child. I get that they needed to keep him up or send back to the OHL, but they lived with a lot of mistakes with Monahan and extremely sheltered him, even though I thought Monahan looked really tentative in his game. I am saying they could've done that with Baertschi too.
I heard Baertschi tried to put in time but was sent down, brought up and sent down. I just think the Flames mishandled him as much as he didn't follow through on his end, which is part of development. The Flames failed to develop Baertschi.
Monahan on the other hand has always had a tremendous attitude, has been very teachable and gone out of his way to do what he's been told, his early face-off study as an example.
I hope for his sake that Baertschi makes it but to compare the two guys and say that he is a symbol of a faulty Flames development system is nonsense.
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Honestly I think a lot of that is perception rather then reality. Who are these teams that are more commonly finding these gems outside of the top 10? I am speaking of the modern draft.
I am not suggesting the Flames are the best drafting house in the business. But finding and developing Gaudreau, Giordano, and Brodie in the late rounds (or undrafted signing) is a heck of a feather in the cap.
I am sure many of the other rebuilding clubs wish they had more of those late round guys to boast about.
Agree completely, Flames have not been that bad.
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Let's see. Ferland, Granlund, Bouma, Brodie, Backlund, and Jooris all coming up from the farm. Poirier and Klimchuck working on their D and still progressing. Baertschi was a combination of inappropriately heightened expectations and an attitude ( and hey, he's turned out ok).I think we've seen improvements but we were so bad before that just being average looks like a great achievement. Those Darryl Sutter years were completely forgettable.
I like the variety of picks now and the willingness to draft undersized/skilled players. While Poirier and Klimchuk don't look to justify 1st round picks, I think they will still be NHL'ers at some point. I like Karnauhkov. I think he will pan out as a 4th liner with a lot of energy. Hickey looks like NHL material sooner rather than later. Jon Gillies looks like the real deal (hopefully comes back strong from surgery), etc.
Only thing that worries me is the track record of our farm system at progressing development. Some of our best young players were able to by-pass the AHL completely like Monahan, Bennett, and Gaudreau. At the AHL level, we've seen more promising careers steered off the edge of the cliff than that which have matured. For example, Poirier and Klimchuk are not progressing well offensively. Baertschi asked for a trade. There are also a few fringe guys who are almost there but can't take the next step, such as Wotherspoon, Seiloff, Kulak, and Ortio.
I'm not sold that our farm system is effective enough at development.
It seems to me the farm is doing just fine.
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I can respect the opinion of not trading prospects for veterans. Especially expensive depth veterans with term on their contract. In this case I was okay with the trade because it appeared we got something for nothing. But what we got is now a liability and the nothing is doing pretty well so retrospectively I understand the concern.
What I don't agree with is that the Flames failing to call up Ortio negatively effected his development. I have never seen a prospects development details by extra time in the minors.
At the time of the trade Ortio didn't have a single season in the AHL as a starter. Meanwhile the Flames had just traded away the previous generation and were going into a rebuild year. Putting Ortio into the NHL would have been unfair and a poor development decision.
Which meant Ortio was in the AHL and there was no room for Brossoit. We could have left him in the ECHL (that is what the Oilers did) but with Gilles on his way I understand why the Flames traded Brossoit.
I get that the Flames treatment of Ortio after the 13/14 season is debatable. But honestly I think that Ortio deserves a lot of the blame. He was given a number of opportunities and he failed to step up. You can look at it with micro detail and try to deflect the blame of him not stepping up to the Flames, but we don't have the details so your working with concipiracy rather then facts.
I get the Flames don't have a good track record for developing goalies. But everyone has changed. Coaches, trainers, etc. It's tough to blame this on a systemic issue when the system has changed.
Bottom line for me is that it's on Ortio to step up and he hasn't. I don't think there is an overarching concipiracy or a deep rooted failure of the Flames development system.
Agree on most of your points. At the time of the trade it was definitely something for nothing, and we had some good options. Smid it appears in retrospect, was still suffering from an old injury which placed him up until this year after another surgery. In retrospect not what we wanted but the original deal was OK.
As for Ortio, the past two seasons have started poorly and gradually built to pretty solid, so the inconsistencies have been a concern. This past Fall should have been his shot but things got derailed with the (apparent) failed goalie trade and resultant three-headed monster. What happens going forward is still on him. If he gets it together there is still a chance to backup here next Fall but I think its a longshot at best.
That leaves us with two solid prospects for next Fall, which would have been much better if Gillies didn't lose a season due to injury but those things sometimes happen, and can't be predicted.
If we re-sign Ramo for 2 years and get Ortio or another goalie as back-up we'll be fine, especially if the team fails to move out some of our deadweight players before their contracts are up.
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With the shutout last night and playing well, in spite of relatively few really difficult chances by Florida, it will be interesting to see what BH does on Saturday versus the Oilers. I'm thinking it could go either way but to keep up the "Ramo is our starter" narrative (and he deservedly is) I expect Ramo will get the start. If Ramo falters Hiller will get back in, and in any case he could get one of the back-to-backs on the upcoming road trip.
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Xmas interim trade deadline is tonight so if no trades today it'll be quiet for a couple of weeks. In the New Year I'm expecting the trade market to loosen up a bit as teams start to address needs before too much of the season goes by, while at the same time the playoff races start to come into closer focus and some teams start to fall out of contention. Of course, TDL is just two months away which will come sooner than many think.
Again, BT seems busy knocking on doors and looking at possibilities to improve the team. With Calgary getting back into the playoff picture its hard to imagine we'll be sellers, but perhaps 1-2 players if our call-ups continue to play well and earn their spots LT (e.g. Granlund). I'm still hoping for a big upgrade i.e. Hamonic by trading off some experience in return but we'll have to see how the NYI go and what develops in the market.
I would anticipate the Oilers market may be a lot quieter than anticipated just a couple weeks ago due to their recent run and expectation of improvement with injured players back, which may be good for us if we decide to trade Hudler, for instance.
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Ya, you never know. Boston got Rask for very little. That's the kind of deal we need to make. Mind you, those kinds of deals are rare now. Teams tend to know what they have nowadays.
Well, the Oilers got Nillson for not much and he seems to be doing pretty well for them....
Calgary Flames Drafting and Development: Your Analysis
in Flames Talk
Posted
I don't disagree that there are many skilled Canadians. I would say, though, that perhaps certain skillsets that many think of as "skill" e.g. puck handling, passing are more emphasized in Europe vs things like checking in the Canadian system. Even if we accepted the two countries are even in skill, I think there is a huge disparity in NHL-Canadians versus NHL-Russians, which means the ability to find great Russians in a group not as picked-over as Canadians would be way higher, and teams doing so are going to be much further ahead (i.e. Detroit).