Realistic (and unrealistic) Trades - 2024 Edition

[The_People1]

5 minutes ago, sak22 said:

Challenge accepted.  Though I'm only going back to 2000 and doing a cutoff on 2018 and using only going for who I would consider a core player (based on your belief that the Flames could pick 9&10 and be off to a good start).

 

#10 - Yakubov, Blackburn, Nystrom, A. Kostitsyn, Valabik, Bourdon, Frolik, Ellerby, Hodgson, Paajarvi, McIlrath, Brodin, Koekkoek, Nichushkin, N. Ritchie, Rantanen, Jost, Tippet, Bouchard.  2/19 = 10% some unfortunate ones there with Blackburn and Bourdon, argument can be made that Nichushkin now belongs in that category, but not doing it with the team that drafted him and let him go to UFA early eliminates him.

 

#9 - Krahn, Ruuru, Taticek, Phaneuf, Smid, Lee, Sheppard, Couture, Bailey, Cowen, Granlund, Hamilton, Trouba, Horvat, Ehlers, Meier, Sergachev, Rasumssen, Kravtsov.  This one was hard, lots of good, but not many that I'd say are the type to get excited about starting a rebuild with went with Phaneuf because he made greater immediate impact.  Running total 5/38= 13%.

 

#8 - Alexeev, Leclaire, PM Bouchard, Coburn, Picard, Setoguchi, Mueller, Hamill, Boedker, Glennie, Burmistrov, Couturier, Pouliot, Ristolainen, Nylander, Werenski, Mittelstadt, Boqvist.  6/54 = 11%.

 

#7 - Jonsson, Komisarek, Lupul, Suter, Olesz, Skille, Okposo, Voracek, Wilson, Kadri, Skinner, Scheifele, Dumba, Nurse, Fleury, Provorov, Keller, Andersson, Q. Hughes.  11/72 = 15%

 

#6 - Hartnell, Koivu, Upshall, Michalek, Montoya, Brule, Brassard, Gagner, Filatov, OEL, Connolly, Zibanejad, H. Lindholm, Monahan, Virtanen, Zacha, Tkachuk, Glass, Zadina.  13/90 = 14%

 

#5 - Torres, Chistov, Whitney, Vanek, Wheeler, Price, Kessel, Alzner, Schenn, Schenn, Niederreiter, Strome, Rielly, E. Lindholm, Dal Colle, Hanifin, Joulevi, Pettersson, Hayton.  18/108 = 17%

 

#4 - Klesla, Weiss, Pitkanen, Zherdev, Ladd, Pouliot, Backstrom, Hickey, Pietrangelo, Kane, Johansen, Larsson, G. Reinhart, Jones, Bennett, Marner, Puljujarvi, Makar, Tkachuk. 23/126= 18%

 

#3 - Gaborik, Svitov, Bouwmeester, Horton, Barker, Johnson, Toews, Turris, Bogosian, Duchene, Gudbranson, Huberdeau, Galchenyuk, Drouin, Draisaitl, Strome, PLD, Heiskanen, Kotkaniemi.  30/144 = 21%

 

#2 - Heatley, Spezza, Lehtonen, Staal, Malkin, Ryan, Staal, JVR, Doughty, Hedman, Seguin, Landeskog, Murray, Barkov, Reinhart, Eichel, Laine, Patrick, Svechnikov.  39/162 = 24%

 

#1 - Dipietro, Kovalchuk, Nash, MAF, Ovechkin, Crosby, Johnson, Kane, Stamkos, Tavares, Hall, RNH, Yakupov, Mackinnon, Ekblad, McBandaid, Matthews, Hischier, Dahlin. 53/180 = 29%

 

So by my math there is a 29% chance of getting a strong core player just by picking top 10, there are some up for debate but not that many.  9 and 10 alone don't present great odds as is.  So this is why I don't support going too crazy to make a move for #10 or #11.

 

Thanks for the list.  However, I would highlight several more as "core" and much much more as "good to great" players despite not being core, still valuable.  You are not acknowledging many first line/pair guys and team captains.

 

I also wasn't saying we land "core" players per say... Just that 75% chance to hit on a good player compared to late 1st round picks.  If I'm not mistaken, the chance the land an NHL player with a late pick is 35% and that's not even a "core" player.  Just simply hitting on an everyday NHLer.

 

At the end of the day, is it better to have three late firsts only to land Pelletier-types.  Don't want to downplay their importance but a top 10 with first line potential is better, IMO.

[The_People1]

40 minutes ago, cross16 said:

sure, who wouldn't be. Markstom and 28 for 10, i've got no issues with that. 

 

Markstrom plus Anderson for 10? Crazy talk. 

 

Sounds good.  Markstrom is expected to get traded very soon so we will find out how much it actually costs.  I'm ready for Markstrom + Andersson so I guess I will be easier to please when the final bill arrives.

[sak22]

1 minute ago, The_People1 said:

 

Thanks for the list.  However, I would highlight several more as "core" and much much more as "good to great" players despite not being core, still valuable.  You are not acknowledging many first line/pair guys and team captains.

 

I also wasn't saying we land "core" players per say... Just that 75% chance to hit on a good player compared to late 1st round picks.  If I'm not mistaken, the chance the land an NHL player with a late pick is 35% and that's not even a "core" player.  Just simply hitting on an everyday NHLer.

 

At the end of the day, is it better to have three late firsts only to land Pelletier-types.  Don't want to downplay their importance but a top 10 with first line potential is better, IMO.

I'm going off your goals of speeding this up, so do I ignore a Jacob Trouba, Ehlers or Monahan, yes because I don't view them as building blocks and more complementary pieces, we already know what happens when we start a build with Sean Monahan and Sam Bennett, so why should we get excited about starting with a Horvat and Brodin, not a shot at either player both are really good but do I feel better about the future if we are looking at those type of players, not really.

[The_People1]

2 minutes ago, sak22 said:

I'm going off your goals of speeding this up, so do I ignore a Jacob Trouba, Ehlers or Monahan, yes because I don't view them as building blocks and more complementary pieces, we already know what happens when we start a build with Sean Monahan and Sam Bennett, so why should we get excited about starting with a Horvat and Brodin, not a shot at either player both are really good but do I feel better about the future if we are looking at those type of players, not really.

 

Wait wait, let's zoom out for a bit here.  What are we talking about?

 

We're talking about not including Andersson and possibly Pospisil with Markstrom for 10oa. 

 

Instead, save Andersson for next TDL... And what is Andersson?  I would guess a late 1st + mid-tier prospect + fringe NHL player... I mean is it wrong to round that up and call it a 28oa??  And then why not just trade Markstrom + Andersson for the 10oa instead of Markstrom + 28oa for 10oa?  It's like virtual the same thing.

 

I like Pospisil too so hopefully we don't have to include him.

[The_People1]

8 minutes ago, sak22 said:

I'm going off your goals of speeding this up, so do I ignore a Jacob Trouba, Ehlers or Monahan, yes because I don't view them as building blocks and more complementary pieces, we already know what happens when we start a build with Sean Monahan and Sam Bennett, so why should we get excited about starting with a Horvat and Brodin, not a shot at either player both are really good but do I feel better about the future if we are looking at those type of players, not really.

 

I also want to say, your list highlights more the need to sink to the absolute basement of the league to get those top 3 picks.  That's statistically where the core players are found.

 

...which, has nothing to do with what we are talking about here.  Whether we save Andersson and Pospisil for next year's drafts, it still requires hardcore tank to the bottom for a top 3 pick.  Andersson and Pospisil are not getting us a core player back in a trade.

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

Every draft isn't the same. To quote Elvis, lol, "wise men say only fools rush in".

I actually love my acoustic version of that song, @Heartbreaker.

Kicks around anything that I've seen on youtube. Really fun song to finger pick around the melody. I like mixing Journey's "Lights" into it sometimes for a mashup to keep it fun.

 

But yeah, why are we racing to rebuild? I thought we didn't want that?

 

Lol no one is rushing, just wanting to capitalize on a unique opportunity that won't present itself next year or the year after.  Get another top 10 pick.

[travel_dude]

Take this one with a grain of salt....

 

Per Bruce Garrioch:

"A league executive said they believe the Flames would likely be looking for a package that would include a first-round pick and high-end young prospect."

[sak22]

4 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Wait wait, let's zoom out for a bit here.  What are we talking about?

 

We're talking about not including Andersson and possibly Pospisil with Markstrom for 10oa. 

 

Instead, save Andersson for next TDL... And what is Andersson?  I would guess a late 1st + mid-tier prospect + fringe NHL player... I mean is it wrong to round that up and call it a 28oa??  And then why not just trade Markstrom + Andersson for the 10oa instead of Markstrom + 28oa for 10oa?  It's like virtual the same thing.

 

I like Pospisil too so hopefully we don't have to include him.

I'm just downplaying the importance of that slot and why selling higher than you should wouldn't be wise.  I don't see the need to include Andersson in a Markstrom to NJ deal because I see no reason why NJ should take Andersson, but I would still rather sell Andersson for multiple assets than sell him with another asset for 1 asset which is still only a 10% chance at a difference maker

[sak22]

 

Have to skip to around 9:30 for Markstrom talk.  Not a lot of encouraging stuff from Frank, I really don't know how a guy younger than Sidney Crosby looks older than Rhett Warrener, he also doesn't make it sound like the return will be too promising on Markstrom.

[conundrumed]

26 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Lol no one is rushing, just wanting to capitalize on a unique opportunity that won't present itself next year or the year after.  Get another top 10 pick.

You have your mind made up. Hope they disappoint you. lol

We're going to have a solid draft. Let's not get crazy. We have 8 shots at the top 107, 18 or soon-year old players in the world.

That's good enough.

Put away your shovel. lol

[travel_dude]

38 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

You have your mind made up. Hope they disappoint you. lol

We're going to have a solid draft. Let's not get crazy. We have 8 shots at the top 107, 18 or soon-year old players in the world.

That's good enough.

Put away your shovel. lol

 

We had 3 at bats in 2013, two strikeouts and one hit.

The 2nd in 1st round is a nice to have, but paying a ton of assets for a 2nd top 10 seems like a surefire way of being ripped off and not getting better.  Perhaps the best we should do is try to upgrade the 1st by a few spots, if we see a player we really crave.  28 to 18, or somethinglike that.

[cross16]

51 minutes ago, sak22 said:

 

Have to skip to around 9:30 for Markstrom talk.  Not a lot of encouraging stuff from Frank, I really don't know how a guy younger than Sidney Crosby looks older than Rhett Warrener, he also doesn't make it sound like the return will be too promising on Markstrom.

 

Not my favorite person but hard to disagree with what he is saying here. Makes a lot of sense to me. 

[JTech780]

22 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Not my favorite person but hard to disagree with what he is saying here. Makes a lot of sense to me. 

I don’t disagree, I just don’t think the goalie market is all that great. I don’t think Saros is available. Ullmark most likely is available, but is he capable of being the guy or is he a good tandem goalie. Who else is a proven goalie?

 

Ottawa, NJ, Toronto, Carolina are all rumoured to be looking for a goalie. The team I am surprised we haven’t heard more about is LA. Is Georgiev the answer in Colorado? I am sure there will be a few more teams looking for goalies too.

[sak22]

35 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

I don’t disagree, I just don’t think the goalie market is all that great. I don’t think Saros is available. Ullmark most likely is available, but is he capable of being the guy or is he a good tandem goalie. Who else is a proven goalie?

 

Ottawa, NJ, Toronto, Carolina are all rumoured to be looking for a goalie. The team I am surprised we haven’t heard more about is LA. Is Georgiev the answer in Colorado? I am sure there will be a few more teams looking for goalies too.

I think Frank did make a good point on Carolina that they will just role with what they have, it’s kind of always been a need but they’ve been reluctant to give up anything to get it and aren’t afraid to cheap out like how they moved on from Ned a few years back.  So I don’t see them being a player on Markstrom or Ullmark.  I really think Markstrom is either NJ or Ottawa and think NJ is the players preference meaning the ball is in Fitz court.

[phoenix66]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

 

Not my favorite person but hard to disagree with what he is saying here. Makes a lot of sense to me. 

Some interesting points for sure .. should be interesting.  Biggest thing I also took from that is Flames have set a price. They aren't initiating the process..but rather open to listening . My guess is if hes not traded by draft , for the price the flames have set.. then he's off the table . Tho at the end of the day I suspect the Devils will meet it 

[robrob74]

6 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

Wont' dispute the value of players like that. Just dispute the logic that the Flames should aggressively acquire picks 10/11. If they can fantastic but there should be a reasonable price associated with it. 

 

yup, agree, and I don't want to sell the farm to either. I think Conroy will have a good head about it. He seems patient.

[phoenix66]

3 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

yup, agree, and I don't want to sell the farm to either. I think Conroy will have a good head about it. He seems patient.

Personally I don't think we have what it takes to get 11.. Anaheim could trump is just by offering Zegras, for example 

10 is very doable 

[Thebrewcrew]

I think the return will end up being a 2025 1st round pick. Which is fine. The Flames already have enough picks in 2024. 

 

I have a hard time seeing what a return from Ottawa looks like. They have the Boston first. I would rather their 2025 1st. Even with lotto protection, it will be higher than where this year's Boston pick is. The fly in the ointment is that Ottawa might not want to move their 25 pick, as then they are forced to give up the 26 pick. Due to the Dadonov botched NTC.

 

If Josh Norris could ever stay healthy, he would be someone the Flames target. Three shoulder surgeries later, no thanks. Ottawa has drafted really poorly outside of their lotto picks, which is a big reason they're still a cellar-dweller.

[phoenix66]

16 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I think the return will end up being a 2025 1st round pick. Which is fine. The Flames already have enough picks in 2024. 

 

I have a hard time seeing what a return from Ottawa looks like. They have the Boston first. I would rather their 2025 1st. Even with lotto protection, it will be higher than where this year's Boston pick is. The fly in the ointment is that Ottawa might not want to move their 25 pick, as then they are forced to give up the 26 pick. Due to the Dadonov botched NTC.

 

If Josh Norris could ever stay healthy, he would be someone the Flames target. Three shoulder surgeries later, no thanks. Ottawa has drafted really poorly outside of their lotto picks, which is a big reason they're still a cellar-dweller.

I think it's safe to say that between NJ and Ott.. the price has been set as #7 and #10 to even start the discussion . Don't pay it ? Fine ..we won't trade him. Conny holds ALL the cards here .. 

They're looking at 2 controlled years of a Vezina quality goaltender ..

We on the other hand don't have to trade him.. even if he asks to be moved , we don't have to give him away .. 

Markstrom is a pro.. he will play well for whatever team he plays for . There is zero requirement for us to simply move him for the sake of it 

The "basement or bust " brigade may not like it but thats pretty clear the way Conny is running things 

 

[The_People1]

2 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

I think it's safe to say that between NJ and Ott.. the price has been set as #7 and #10 to even start the discussion . Don't pay it ? Fine ..we won't trade him. Conny holds ALL the cards here .. 

They're looking at 2 controlled years of a Vezina quality goaltender ..

We on the other hand don't have to trade him.. even if he asks to be moved , we don't have to give him away .. 

Markstrom is a pro.. he will play well for whatever team he plays for . There is zero requirement for us to simply move him for the sake of it 

The "basement or bust " brigade may not like it but thats pretty clear the way Conny is running things 

 

 

Hmm based on today's chatter, it sounds like Markstrom has okay'd NJD talks and basically, indirectly, played his last game as a Calgary Flames.  He's not coming back.  A trade has to be made.

[phoenix66]

Just now, The_People1 said:

 

Hmm based on today's chatter, it sounds like Markstrom has okay'd NJD talks and basically, indirectly, played his last game as a Calgary Flames.  He's not coming back.  A trade has to be made.

If so he's agreed to waive , then that's fine .. that doesn't mean we have to take whatever we can get for him.. we don't get the deal we like then he doesn't get traded.. it's not up to him . Until Conny gets his price , he's a Flame. We've seen Conroy's MO already .. he sets the price and waits for someone to meet it .

 

[Thebrewcrew]

31 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

I think it's safe to say that between NJ and Ott.. the price has been set as #7 and #10 to even start the discussion . Don't pay it ? Fine ..we won't trade him. Conny holds ALL the cards here .. 

They're looking at 2 controlled years of a Vezina quality goaltender ..

We on the other hand don't have to trade him.. even if he asks to be moved , we don't have to give him away .. 

Markstrom is a pro.. he will play well for whatever team he plays for . There is zero requirement for us to simply move him for the sake of it 

The "basement or bust " brigade may not like it but thats pretty clear the way Conny is running things 

 

I think there is *some* chance the Flames could get 10th. I don’t think it’s likely though. It would essentially have to be the Flames “buying” that pick for 6 mill, which is max retention on Markstrom. As well as including 28th and maybe more. Would Edwards ok that? 
 

New Jersey is unique because Fitzgerald has been so forthright . I think there’s an element of him really needing to make the playoffs to

keep his job. They also have a really good young team, a pick doesn’t necessarily do them any good, right now. I think there may be thought from Fitzgerald, if he loses out on a goalie because he keeps the pick, that he is picking a player for the next GM.

 

I don’t think Ottawa is moving 7th. 
 

2025 picks aren’t a bad thing anyway. The Flames need more 2025 picks. They only have six right now.

[phoenix66]

1 minute ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I think there is *some* chance the Flames could get 10th. I don’t think it’s likely though. It would essentially have to be the Flames “buying” that pick for 6 mill, which is max retention on Markstrom. As well as including 28th and maybe more. Would Edwards ok that? 
 

New Jersey is unique because Fitzgerald has been so forthright . I think there’s an element of him really needing to make the playoffs to

keep his job. They also have a really good young team, a pick doesn’t necessarily do them any good, right now. I think there may be thought from Fitzgerald, if he loses out on a goalie because he keeps the pick, that he is picking a player for the next GM.

 

I don’t think Ottawa is moving 7th. 
 

2025 picks aren’t a bad thing anyway. The Flames need more 2025 picks. They only have six right now.

The only way we add new in the 28 and retain that much is if NJ adds more ..like Holtz and Mercer 

 

Also remember again.. Conroy holds the hammer here. A player that is under control.. we don't have to trade . A player which has the ability to give us hope of playoffs every game he plays for us ( If you believe Murray has control here then you know that's what he wants ) By all accounts this trade does not get done unless we win this trade and whoever gets him overpays.  We've been forced into enough trades that we were behind the 8 ball.. this one we control. Pretty sure nobody in the organization will be upset if he's not moved .

[The_People1]

3 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

The only way we add new in the 28 and retain that much is if NJ adds more ..like Holtz and Mercer 

 

Also remember again.. Conroy holds the hammer here. A player that is under control.. we don't have to trade . A player which has the ability to give us hope of playoffs every game he plays for us ( If you believe Murray has control here then you know that's what he wants ) By all accounts this trade does not get done unless we win this trade and whoever gets him overpays.  We've been forced into enough trades that we were behind the 8 ball.. this one we control. Pretty sure nobody in the organization will be upset if he's not moved .

 

And what do you feel is Conroy's price for Markstrom from NJD and from OTT?

[phoenix66]

1 minute ago, The_People1 said:

 

And what do you feel is Conroy's price for Markstrom from NJD and from OTT?

I would think it's the picks with no retention.. retention costs you more