Realistic (and unrealistic) Trades - 2024 Edition

[robrob74]

2 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

We don't have a single piece in the organization worthy of a 10oa straight across.  It's going to take 3 lesser pieces to get the deal done.  Also, it's only MAJOR pieces to us because we don't have much.

 

I'd argue Andersson and Markstrom are overpays for the 10oa.

[The_People1]

25 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

I'd argue Andersson and Markstrom are overpays for the 10oa.

 

Nah bro I wish.  Age.  Contract length.  Declining play.  Etc. etc.

[sak22]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

 

Nah bro I wish.  Age.  Contract length.  Declining play.  Etc. etc.

But teams will pay a top 10 pick for that, or is it due to the multiplication of 2 of them.

[travel_dude]

41 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

TDL deals are inflated for the team offering the player.

 

Draft deals are inflated for the team offering the draft pick.

 

That's just how it is.  You want the 10oa, it's going to cost a lot.  In my opinion, we should pay because we are a team in need of as many top 10 as we can get.  Same philosophy for teams loading up going into the playoffs... Pay the price to land the final pieces.  Whatever it takes. 

 

Whatever it takes in your opinion if offering up a ton for  a 10th overall and a player they soured on.  Markstrom alone isn't going to get 10th overall, but a 2025 pick plus Holtz sounds reasonable.  They would expect to be a playoff team, so it's later than 16.  

 

You would be more likely to get a 10th overall for just Ras and Pospisil.  Young players.  Lots of upside.

 

TDL deals often have little competition.  NJ was the only one talking.  If NJ had met the asking conditions, we wouldn't be talking about it now.  Now there may be others.  If there is more than one team bidding, the onus is on the bidder to secure the deal.  Have your internal best offer, but keeping in mind it may not be enough.  I think Connie has his value in mind and won't go below that unless things change.

 

Anyway, all I was pointing out was your offer was a big overpay, for what might be a might not miss prospect.  

[The_People1]

7 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

Anyway, all I was pointing out was your offer was a big overpay, for what might be a might not miss prospect.  

 

Yes it's an overpay but what I hope we acknowledge is that it takes an overpay due to it because draft season.  Draft picks have inflated prices.  That's the nature. 

 

I think we should follow through and overpay because we are at the stage of a rebuild/retool where we should aim for highest picks possible.

[The_People1]

34 minutes ago, sak22 said:

But teams will pay a top 10 pick for that, or is it due to the multiplication of 2 of them.

 

No I think that's simply the price to trade for a 10oa at this specific time.  It's expensive.  

[travel_dude]

1 minute ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes it's an overpay but what I hope we acknowledge is that it takes an overpay due to it because draft season.  Draft picks have inflated prices.  That's the nature. 

 

I think we should follow through and overpay because we are at the stage of a rebuild/retool where we should aim for highest picks possible.

 

But you are wasting 3 assets on one pick; that's crazy.

I could see #28 + Markstrom for 10 OA and Holtz, but that's a bit much.

Probably draft floor value, but I don't like it.

Maybe more reasonable is Marky + #28 for #10, Bahl and Holtz.

 

It's all relative, because if you don't have any fallers that you really really want, why bother.

It's likely that the Flames have two or three guys in mind.

If any of those are available, they will run up.

They won't say I want them all.

Too much risk.

[cberg]

2 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

TDL deals are inflated for the team offering the player.

 

Draft deals are inflated for the team offering the draft pick.

 

That's just how it is.  You want the 10oa, it's going to cost a lot.  In my opinion, we should pay because we are a team in need of as many top 10 as we can get.  Same philosophy for teams loading up going into the playoffs... Pay the price to land the final pieces.  Whatever it takes. 

Getting high picks is great, but trading away way too much, including the very type of player you want(Pospisil) is a non-starter.  Need to make it happen a different way.  Hey if we just keep Markstrom our plan continues apace, whereas NJ squanders another year of prime players.  They NEED to make a deal, we don’t.

[The_People1]

18 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

But you are wasting 3 assets on one pick; that's crazy.

 

"Wasting" - that's hilarious because getting a top 10 pick by natural means requires wasting an entire year by losing.  I'm saying let's not waste an entire year.  Let's spend assets to not waste a year away.

[The_People1]

14 minutes ago, cberg said:

Getting high picks is great, but trading away way too much, including the very type of player you want(Pospisil) is a non-starter.  Need to make it happen a different way.  Hey if we just keep Markstrom our plan continues apace, whereas NJ squanders another year of prime players.  They NEED to make a deal, we don’t.

 

In all likelihood, NJD can get Markstrom without giving up the 10oa.  And in all honesty, that's probably how it all goes down.

 

But I'm making suggestions to get that 10oa.  I'm suggesting it's going to take an overpay and that we should do it because of the unique time and place this franchise finds themselves.... Basically year one of a retool/rebuild.  Get as many high picks as possible.  They take 2-5 years to enter prime... Better to have two players early in the retool than later and still wait 2-5 years from a later point.  Does that make sense?

 

One thing I'm trying to say is drafting top 10 once is better than drafting in the 20s three times.  The odds favour the top 10 pick.

 

Yes, the odd time you hit on a Pastrnak but that's the exception, not the norm.  Whereas a top 10 pick is normally is a first line F and first pairing D.  

 

Lastly, this team needs new first line kids to form a new core.  We are not a contender who could use a quantity of support players.  We need the core players.

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

 

No I think that's simply the price to trade for a 10oa at this specific time.  It's expensive.  

 

I think it is why Conroy waited last summer; plus he was new so he had to show that while he's a nice guy, he will get what he thinks is fair. 
 

depends on ask. I'd say, if you're throwing Andersson away like that, may as well wait until TDL and get fair value for him. 

[cberg]

3 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Nah bro I wish.  Age.  Contract length.  Declining play.  Etc. etc.

Disagree, under the right circumstances either of them could fetch 10oa.  But who is more desperate?  Who is more motivated? Who has the right fit for the players?  This Spring NJ didn’t take Markstrom without salary retention and the deal blew up, they lost out on a whole year of prime potential after a breakout year previously. Flames didn’t really matter as team played like crap anyway… 

[The_People1]

2 minutes ago, cberg said:

Disagree, under the right circumstances either of them could fetch 10oa.  But who is more desperate?  Who is more motivated? Who has the right fit for the players?  This Spring NJ didn’t take Markstrom without salary retention and the deal blew up, they lost out on a whole year of prime potential after a breakout year previously. Flames didn’t really matter as team played like crap anyway… 

 

Either of them?

 

There's simply no way Fitzgerald is offering the 10oa for Markstrom straight up and Conroy is just sitting on his hands.  We would have heard a done deal by now if that was the case.

 

Also, it's suggested both Andersson AND Markstrom is an overpay for 10oa but I don't think so.  Both players fetch a late 1st to a contending team at the TDL.  Two late 1sts shouldn't be worth a 10oa.  But if we add Pospisil, then it tips the scale and NJD will pull the trigger.

[cberg]

11 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Either of them?

 

There's simply no way Fitzgerald is offering the 10oa for Markstrom straight up and Conroy is just sitting on his hands.  We would have heard a done deal by now if that was the case.

 

Also, it's suggested both Andersson AND Markstrom is an overpay for 10oa but I don't think so.  Both players fetch a late 1st to a contending team at the TDL.  Two late 1sts shouldn't be worth a 10oa.  But if we add Pospisil, then it tips the scale and NJD will pull the trigger.

Your trade smacks of huge overpay and desperation, and the Flames are not in a place where desperation is required, unlike NJD.  Looking at it from a Flames-centric view, giving up a top5 goalie, a 2D RS dman and a burgeoning tough/skilled top6 winger/C? For the 10oa pick, especially where there may not be much discernible difference between pick 10-32, is a fireable offence.  

[The_People1]

47 minutes ago, cberg said:

Your trade smacks of huge overpay and desperation, and the Flames are not in a place where desperation is required, unlike NJD.  Looking at it from a Flames-centric view, giving up a top5 goalie, a 2D RS dman and a burgeoning tough/skilled top6 winger/C? For the 10oa pick, especially where there may not be much discernible difference between pick 10-32, is a fireable offence.  

 

We can guess with some degree of certainty that the prospects we are looking at with the 9th pick is some combo of Buium, Dickinson, Silayev, Catton, Iginla, Eiserman, Helenius, etc.  these kids are a very discernible difference to the prospects available 25+ in the draft.  Wouldn't it be nice to get two of these kids instead of one?

[cberg]

2 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

We can guess with some degree of certainty that the prospects we are looking at with the 9th pick is some combo of Buium, Dickinson, Silayev, Catton, Iginla, Eiserman, Helenius, etc.  these kids are a very discernible difference to the prospects available 25+ in the draft.  Wouldn't it be nice to get two of these kids instead of one?

Again, yes it would be terrific to get two of them.  It potentially speeds up the Re-  tremendously.  However, you cannot give up the farm to do so.  A team is made up of 20+ players and even if you have the best two players on earth, if the rest of the team is terrible because you overpaid for those two the team will fail.  I want a second top10 pick in 2024 and have been advocating for it for months.  However, the deals have to work for both sides.

[robrob74]

5 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

We can guess with some degree of certainty that the prospects we are looking at with the 9th pick is some combo of Buium, Dickinson, Silayev, Catton, Iginla, Eiserman, Helenius, etc.  these kids are a very discernible difference to the prospects available 25+ in the draft.  Wouldn't it be nice to get two of these kids instead of one?

 

if the price is where you're at then I think Conroy needs to be patient, even if he has to wait a few months in when a RD goes down or a LW is needed by another team. 

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, cberg said:

Again, yes it would be terrific to get two of them.  It potentially speeds up the Re-  tremendously.  However, you cannot give up the farm to do so.  A team is made up of 20+ players and even if you have the best two players on earth, if the rest of the team is terrible because you overpaid for those two the team will fail.  I want a second top10 pick in 2024 and have been advocating for it for months.  However, the deals have to work for both sides.

 

Well first off, I'm glad we both want to add a top 10 pick.  Yes, it potentially speeds up the re-  So, let's look closer at what I'm suggesting here.

 

Markstrom... All the stars aligned when Brodeur named Markstrom a top 5 goalie in the NHL because we watch Markstrom more than Brodeur.  Markstrom is more like top 10-15.  Not top 5.  Geez.  Two years ago Markstrom was sub .900 sv% and single handedly caused the Flames to miss the playoffs.  If he was only average, the Flames would've sneaked in.  Instead, he costed Sutter his job and had us wondering how we would ever buyout his contract.  Brodeur calls him top 5?  Wow.  Don't get me wrong, a top 10-15 is still a good goalie and we shouldn't give him away but he's not what Brodeur thinks he is.

 

Andersson... You call him 2D but if we are honest, he's more like 2/3/4 on a contender.  He's trending the wrong way, doesn't play first unit PP and doesn't play first unit PK.  Andersson is trending to be as bland as they come.  His only saving grace is his RHS.  In other words, he's replaceable.

 

Pospisil... I like him too and he's exactly what playoff teams covet.  The grit and fearless style of play.  He's a great player but I hope you agree that timing isn't right.  He's 29/30 by the time we are a playoff team again.  Given his style of play, he's probably retiring by that age.  

 

And lastly, we have to give to get.  NJD fans say it's crazy to move the 10oa for Markstrom.  We think it's crazy to add so much to the deal.  So give that, I'm probably pretty close to a fair deal here.

 

I don't think we are giving up the farm either.  There's still Kuzmenko, Sharangovich, and Mange as trade chips at TDL.  We shouldn't keep any of these three.  They are pump and dumps to the highest bidder.  Stick to the plan.  We bottom out in 2026 for franchise altering Gavin McKenna to add to Dickinson + Iginla from this year.  We will draft top 10 again in 2025 also.  The new core would be looking good and we can begin to transition out of tanking and start adding young Pospisils to push for the playoffs.

[The_People1]

23 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

If the price is where you're at then I think Conroy needs to be patient, even if he has to wait a few months in when a RD goes down or a LW is needed by another team. 

 

Wait for what?  Someone to give us a late 1st for Andersson and a 2nd rounder for Pospisil?  The opportunity to combo those overrated picks for a top 10 is before us.  Make the trade now.

[robrob74]

2 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Wait for what?  Someone to give us a late 1st for Andersson and a 2nd rounder for Pospisil?  The opportunity to combo those overrated picks for a top 10 is before us.  Make the trade now.

I think Conroy would want to go for a Toffoli kind of deal with Andersson. Only, he'd get a first and a player to play? Maybe it's more the Hanifin deal? 

[conundrumed]

2 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Wait for what?  Someone to give us a late 1st for Andersson and a 2nd rounder for Pospisil?  The opportunity to combo those overrated picks for a top 10 is before us.  Make the trade now.

Fun scenario,

Markstrom: I told you last time, don't ever ask me again. You put us through hell. I'll hold my end of the bargain, you can hold up yours, if you're allowed to manage that.

[MP5029]

18 hours ago, The_People1 said:

The more I think about,

 

Markstrom + Andersson + Pospisil

 

The more I think OTT would do that deal for the 7oa.  It checks off everything they need.

Yes but need a player coming back, not a dump but a young player NHL ready or nearly ready…who’s Ott got that may check the player box that we would want? 

[cberg]

6 hours ago, robrob74 said:

 

if the price is where you're at then I think Conroy needs to be patient, even if he has to wait a few months in when a RD goes down or a LW is needed by another team. 

Agree, try to make a reasonable to slight overpay deal now, if not wait for an injury or till next TDL, when we'll know better what we have and other teams are more desperate with playoffs looming.  Reasonably, the Flames are going to be bottom10 next year anyways with the team we have now, bringing in more prospects, unless Conroy does an about-face and overpays significantly for 2-3 top level UFAs, which would go against everything he has done so far. Doing so is highly, highly unlikely even if he wants to... what top level UFA is going to sign here with what the Flames currently are?  Maybe, a big maybe some old friends like Monahan or Tanev... but not much else.

[cberg]

6 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Well first off, I'm glad we both want to add a top 10 pick.  Yes, it potentially speeds up the re-  So, let's look closer at what I'm suggesting here.

 

Markstrom... All the stars aligned when Brodeur named Markstrom a top 5 goalie in the NHL because we watch Markstrom more than Brodeur.  Markstrom is more like top 10-15.  Not top 5.  Geez.  Two years ago Markstrom was sub .900 sv% and single handedly caused the Flames to miss the playoffs.  If he was only average, the Flames would've sneaked in.  Instead, he costed Sutter his job and had us wondering how we would ever buyout his contract.  Brodeur calls him top 5?  Wow.  Don't get me wrong, a top 10-15 is still a good goalie and we shouldn't give him away but he's not what Brodeur thinks he is.

 

Andersson... You call him 2D but if we are honest, he's more like 2/3/4 on a contender.  He's trending the wrong way, doesn't play first unit PP and doesn't play first unit PK.  Andersson is trending to be as bland as they come.  His only saving grace is his RHS.  In other words, he's replaceable.

 

Pospisil... I like him too and he's exactly what playoff teams covet.  The grit and fearless style of play.  He's a great player but I hope you agree that timing isn't right.  He's 29/30 by the time we are a playoff team again.  Given his style of play, he's probably retiring by that age.  

 

And lastly, we have to give to get.  NJD fans say it's crazy to move the 10oa for Markstrom.  We think it's crazy to add so much to the deal.  So give that, I'm probably pretty close to a fair deal here.

 

I don't think we are giving up the farm either.  There's still Kuzmenko, Sharangovich, and Mange as trade chips at TDL.  We shouldn't keep any of these three.  They are pump and dumps to the highest bidder.  Stick to the plan.  We bottom out in 2026 for franchise altering Gavin McKenna to add to Dickinson + Iginla from this year.  We will draft top 10 again in 2025 also.  The new core would be looking good and we can begin to transition out of tanking and start adding young Pospisils to push for the playoffs.

Your evaluation is what I would call "realistic negative", something a BT might give when negotiating a new contract.  I can give you "realistic positive", something the player's agent might give in the same negotiations.  

 

Markstrom is a top level goalie, he's had multiple Vezina-quality seasons, including this past year, where he was #1-#2 in high danger save % and among the league leaders in multiple advanced stats.  He is signed for 2 more years at a reasonable level, that could be reduced in a trade.  Brodeur, a HOF NJD goalie ranks him at Top5 in the league.  Everyone knows goalies, like everyone else is a reflection of the team in front of them, and there are fluctuations throughout a season.  Heck, Shesterkin was terrible for most of the early part of this season, before getting it together and into the playoffs.  Also, whatever Markstrom is, what are the other options for the NJD, a team that has all the parts ready to go, which was shown two years ago when they broke out, before the devastating injuries and bad goalie play this past year?  With some young goalies not ready for the future, are they just going to sit there and let that happen again and again, and the young goalies die on the vine, or go out and get the best option that clearly is available?  Trading for a top level goalie is clearly a need and their best option going forward.  Years ago they made that very type of deal, trading #9oa for Cory Schneider.  So, precedence there...

 

Anderson's a RS D in his prime, who has successfully performed at the 2/3/4 level for multiple years. This past year was a down year, following some in-season injuries, but he is likely to get back to his career averages next season.  He also has a good temperament and leadership qualities that would fit in well with an existing lineup.  At a TDL he would easily command a 3 piece return similar to the recent Hanifin trade, ie mid-late 1st rounder, roster player and a prospect.

 

Pospisil's value has been expertly played out by Conundrum above, so I won't repeat it, but to say Pospisil is that rare type of player that every team is looking for, and needs for playoff success. In addition, this past year, his breakout rookie season, the team's record with and without him is starkly positive when he is on the roster, and every line he plays on is much better, kind of like the Backlund bump on steroids.  We don't know what he can be, and even figuring he might be 29/30 when we get back to the playoffs, that is prime time.  I might be open to trading him, but it would be at a high premium, never as essentially a throw-in on a deal that was already an overpay to start with.

 

 

[cberg]

4 hours ago, conundrumed said:

Fun scenario,

Markstrom: I told you last time, don't ever ask me again. You put us through hell. I'll hold my end of the bargain, you can hold up yours, if you're allowed to manage that.

Certainly a possibility, he holds all the power, just like Marner in Toronto, Gaudreau here earlier.  At some point these GMs will start to understand you can't be giving out NMC like candy, although I know its a signing incentive for the players.  Fun times indeed.....