2024 NHL draft - A New Hope

[sak22]

I think a real comparable which people aren't going to like to hear is when the Flames acquired Mike Smith he was moved for Brandon Hickey (prospect with signing questions), Chad Johnson (pending UFA) and 3rd round pick which had conditions of being a 2nd if they made the playoffs in 2018.  Both were relatively the same age, same term with close AAV, but statistically Smith was still putting up respectable sv% despite being on a bad team, Smith had limited trade protection and Markstrom has full.  And to keep in mind things were pretty desperate for the Flames to add a goalie with Elliott being a UFA who was terrible in the playoffs, and the market was thinning with Bishop moved to Dallas and Fleury intent on going to Vegas wasn't a lot of other options and Arizona still didn't seem to have a lot of power, Conroy could have less with Markstrom.

[The_People1]

22 minutes ago, sak22 said:

I think a real comparable which people aren't going to like to hear is when the Flames acquired Mike Smith he was moved for Brandon Hickey (prospect with signing questions), Chad Johnson (pending UFA) and 3rd round pick which had conditions of being a 2nd if they made the playoffs in 2018.  Both were relatively the same age, same term with close AAV, but statistically Smith was still putting up respectable sv% despite being on a bad team, Smith had limited trade protection and Markstrom has full.  And to keep in mind things were pretty desperate for the Flames to add a goalie with Elliott being a UFA who was terrible in the playoffs, and the market was thinning with Bishop moved to Dallas and Fleury intent on going to Vegas wasn't a lot of other options and Arizona still didn't seem to have a lot of power, Conroy could have less with Markstrom.

 

So painful to read this because it's basically true.

[Thebrewcrew]

 

[Thebrewcrew]

Reading through the Elite Prospects draft guide.

 

I'd seen it mentioned before, but they cited concerns with Eiserman. Mentioning Kieffer Bellows and Oliver Wahlstrom as players that had similar profiles as prospects.

 

They also comp Iginla to Hagel and Wyatt Johnston. I believe that the Hockey News also has Iginla compared to Hagel

[The_People1]

Very worthwhile listen from a Devils fan.  He mentions Markstrom several times,

 

 

[Thebrewcrew]

 

[MP5029]

21 hours ago, sak22 said:

I think a real comparable which people aren't going to like to hear is when the Flames acquired Mike Smith he was moved for Brandon Hickey (prospect with signing questions), Chad Johnson (pending UFA) and 3rd round pick which had conditions of being a 2nd if they made the playoffs in 2018.  Both were relatively the same age, same term with close AAV, but statistically Smith was still putting up respectable sv% despite being on a bad team, Smith had limited trade protection and Markstrom has full.  And to keep in mind things were pretty desperate for the Flames to add a goalie with Elliott being a UFA who was terrible in the playoffs, and the market was thinning with Bishop moved to Dallas and Fleury intent on going to Vegas wasn't a lot of other options and Arizona still didn't seem to have a lot of power, Conroy could have less with Markstrom.

Not a comparable at all…

 

firstly, you have a legendary goalie in NJD front office in Broudeaur who has Markstrom listed as the best goalie in the NHL right now…regardless of opinion, When you have a guy like Broudeaur say that’s the best guy for a goalie option, that raises the value, in a big bad way.

 

also, now hearing there are a number of teams interested in Markstrom, particularly in him not just a goalie, but Markstrom.

 

he’s clearly the top goalie everyone wants…Moreover as many have speculated..and admittedly I was wrong in thinking his best price would be TDL, I think the reason so many teams are looking at him now vs the TDL is cause they lost in the playoffs due to crap goaltending (well unreliable, which is what Markstrom give a team) 

 

hard to say but, I can say with absolute certainty he’s gonna get a return far greater than Smith, it’s not the same whatsoever 

[cberg]

6 minutes ago, MP5029 said:

Not a comparable at all…

 

firstly, you have a legendary goalie in NJD front office in Broudeaur who has Markstrom listed as the best goalie in the NHL right now…regardless of opinion, When you have a guy like Broudeaur say that’s the best guy for a goalie option, that raises the value, in a big bad way.

 

also, now hearing there are a number of teams interested in Markstrom, particularly in him not just a goalie, but Markstrom.

 

he’s clearly the top goalie everyone wants…Moreover as many have speculated..and admittedly I was wrong in thinking his best price would be TDL, I think the reason so many teams are looking at him now vs the TDL is cause they lost in the playoffs due to crap goaltending (well unreliable, which is what Markstrom give a team) 

 

hard to say but, I can say with absolute certainty he’s gonna get a return far greater than Smith, it’s not the same whatsoever 

I believe your thinking is correct, and that there is a solid chance of a trade.  I’m wondering if the trade takes place before or at the draft? 

[The_People1]

How about EJ Emery with the 28th pick?... Staying along the same concept we were discussing recently... A big, shut down, RHS RD, has zero offense but has high IQ defending and defensive instincts.  Keeps his zone exits simple yet effective.  Good skater.  Long reach.  6'-3" 181 lbs.

 

We heard Conroy and Button talk about kids with room to grow and seeing kids bodies at the combine... trying to see if a kid has maxed out his frame or still has size to grow into... I imagine at 6'-3" 181 lbs, Emery has 30 - 40 lbs of muscle to add and dominate further.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

[sak22]

57 minutes ago, MP5029 said:

Not a comparable at all…

 

firstly, you have a legendary goalie in NJD front office in Broudeaur who has Markstrom listed as the best goalie in the NHL right now…regardless of opinion, When you have a guy like Broudeaur say that’s the best guy for a goalie option, that raises the value, in a big bad way.

 

also, now hearing there are a number of teams interested in Markstrom, particularly in him not just a goalie, but Markstrom.

 

he’s clearly the top goalie everyone wants…Moreover as many have speculated..and admittedly I was wrong in thinking his best price would be TDL, I think the reason so many teams are looking at him now vs the TDL is cause they lost in the playoffs due to crap goaltending (well unreliable, which is what Markstrom give a team) 

 

hard to say but, I can say with absolute certainty he’s gonna get a return far greater than Smith, it’s not the same whatsoever 

So, a lot of players I like in the league and still wouldn't trade a top 10 pick for.  If you aren't trying to get a player at the lowest possible price then you shouldn't be in the league.  Maybe Markstrom is the guy everyone wants (I don't believe for a second he is), he still has all the control.  I usually hate being right on trade values, but I may make an exception on rubbing this one in on everyone if I am.

[cberg]

Was listening to 960 yesterday and the discussion was about the 2013 draft, the last time the Flames had multiple 1st rd picks, and 9 picks overall.  We got Monahan, who was excellent and then only 53 NHL games out of the remaining 8 picks together.  All in all a disastrous draft, aside from Monahan.  As they were saying, we cannot repeat that this year.  Although the Flames have been drafting much better of late, I’m still wondering about the multitude of draftees that will not make it, and if there is anything to learn from our history.  One thing that comes to mind are the surprising picks, eg Mcdonald, Jankowski and others that someone saw once(?) where the player excelled and used that to overturn the long term view at the draft.  Who made those decisions?  I love it that both Conroy and Iginla are at the forefront of the picks now, as they have an inside outlook on what an NHLer entails, but both have also worked with youth since.? 

[The_People1]

5 minutes ago, cberg said:

Was listening to 960 yesterday and the discussion was about the 2013 draft, the last time the Flames had multiple 1st rd picks, and 9 picks overall.  We got Monahan, who was excellent and then only 53 NHL games out of the remaining 8 picks together.  All in all a disastrous draft, aside from Monahan.  As they were saying, we cannot repeat that this year.  Although the Flames have been drafting much better of late, I’m still wondering about the multitude of draftees that will not make it, and if there is anything to learn from our history.  One thing that comes to mind are the surprising picks, eg Mcdonald, Jankowski and others that someone saw once(?) where the player excelled and used that to overturn the long term view at the draft.  Who made those decisions?  I love it that both Conroy and Iginla are at the forefront of the picks now, as they have an inside outlook on what an NHLer entails, but both have also worked with youth since.? 

 

Mostly out of our control though.  The Flames weren't the only team to miss on picks in 2013 because that draft was awful overall.  Hopefully 2024 is better.  In fact, hope the next 3 drafts would be better too.

[sak22]

5 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Mostly out of our control though.  The Flames weren't the only team to miss on picks in 2013 because that draft was awful overall.  Hopefully 2024 is better.  In fact, hope the next 3 drafts would be better too.

As much as people talk about the last time being sped up, I think the bigger errors were the missed opportunities when the team actually had decent draft capital, 2012-2014 had a lot of missed opportunities even 2013 some high quality wingers taken in the 3rd round after the Flames took Kanzig.  2014 take the first goalie, only to watch that draft produce some of the best goalies in the league today, just awful drafts.

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, sak22 said:

As much as people talk about the last time being sped up, I think the bigger errors were the missed opportunities when the team actually had decent draft capital, 2012-2014 had a lot of missed opportunities even 2013 some high quality wingers taken in the 3rd round after the Flames took Kanzig.  2014 take the first goalie, only to watch that draft produce some of the best goalies in the league today, just awful drafts.

 

Oh agreed there were misses.  So I feel time in the basement beats timing the basement.  Simply spend more time because there will be misses.  It's human nature.

 

In my opinion, there's no rush to come out of this retool if we want to come out of it as Cup contenders.

[travel_dude]

20 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Oh agreed there were misses.  So I feel time in the basement beats timing the basement.  Simply spend more time because there will be misses.  It's human nature.

 

In my opinion, there's no rush to come out of this retool if we want to come out of it as Cup contenders.

 

Considering the timing of the arena build, a decade of tear down/retool is not really going to work.  EDM's arena opened in McD's 2nd season and they are finally coming out of the rebuild.  I think.  7 consecutive top 10 draft picks ending with Poolparty and they still had 2 top 10's and a 14th.  And it's not like every pick before McD was poor.

 

Just to be a little clearer, you don't come out of a rebuild as a contender, you come out ready to build to be a contender.  Building through trades and UFA signings.   

[The_People1]

28 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Considering the timing of the arena build, a decade of tear down/retool is not really going to work.  EDM's arena opened in McD's 2nd season and they are finally coming out of the rebuild.  I think.  7 consecutive top 10 draft picks ending with Poolparty and they still had 2 top 10's and a 14th.  And it's not like every pick before McD was poor.

 

Just to be a little clearer, you don't come out of a rebuild as a contender, you come out ready to build to be a contender.  Building through trades and UFA signings.   

 

Yes good point.  Right now the timeline for the new arena completion is late 2026 or early 2027... So we're looking at 4 drafts before the 2027/28 season (including this coming one).  If first season in the new arena is bad, we probably still fill the arena for the entire year... So by year 2 of the new arena, let's start winning.  And in theory, it's roughly inline with what we are doing right now.

 

Basically, we have 5 drafts to establish a new core.

[redfire11]

I think the whole drafting mindset is to a point tainted. So many want to draft as an example a offensive minded D and then spend the time teaching him to be defensive. Crazy.!! 

Draft a player by his strengths then then push those strengths to another level.  Havn't we learned the hard way with Huberdeau???

[travel_dude]

51 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes good point.  Right now the timeline for the new arena completion is late 2026 or early 2027... So we're looking at 4 drafts before the 2027/28 season (including this coming one).  If first season in the new arena is bad, we probably still fill the arena for the entire year... So by year 2 of the new arena, let's start winning.  And in theory, it's roughly inline with what we are doing right now.

 

Basically, we have 5 drafts to establish a new core.

 

4 is a bit of a stretch.  All 4 of those would need to be NHL ready.  They can't show up at the new arena and expect to become the new core.  And you can't have a new core without the old core.  Think of when JG, MT, SM and EL became key on the team.  That was joining a core consisting of Gio, Brodie, Hanifin, minus the goalie.

 

Every single one of those players is gone.  We have yet to define the existing core.  You need for that to shake out before you just start replacing guys.  Is Sharky a core guy?  If you aren't sure then you better not just trade him for a pick.  

[sak22]

Iginla's dad

 

[cberg]

You know, as much as teams and fans get excited about some players, and hope they can draft them, players likely have similar feelings, especially if a team really takes an interest in them.  The Mcdavid reaction to Edmonton winning the lottery is an all-time classic.  I’m betting Tij may have hopes for Calgary, hope it works out…

[conundrumed]

8 hours ago, redfire11 said:

I think the whole drafting mindset is to a point tainted. So many want to draft as an example a offensive minded D and then spend the time teaching him to be defensive. Crazy.!! 

Draft a player by his strengths then then push those strengths to another level.  Havn't we learned the hard way with Huberdeau???

I agree. It's a tough task between what that 18yo is going to be at 23. There is no way to know.

What you get fed, as a casual observer, is highlight reels and stats. They are virtually meaningless.

It's really fundamentals, imho. Do you have an adequate toolbox? Is something far too lacking?

I can give up straight line speed. That's hard to really translate to pro hockey.

Then, for me, it's, "are you unique, are you making a difference in general play"?

One reason I latched onto Musty last year. I watched the Wolves a bit, then I'd sail the high seas to see if maybe a couple of times live were just good games. He made me think a lot about if Getzlaf were a winger. Same inconsistency in jr, until he's triggered. I saw the Hitmen quite a bit.

When Musty is on, he's a hawk. He's hunting pucks when he's going, and it's going to be a big problem for opponents. Exact same as Getzlaf. Just lacked/lacks how to stay in that mindset.

This year, no one thinks he's a high-end guy, but I'll champion Sam O'Reilly at 28. I'd love to say 41, but that's a risk.

All due to watching Dickinson, Cowan, Halttunen, Bonk, Barkey...London's loaded...on the regular.

It led to, "who's this O'Reilly kid"? Consistently good at defending and moving pucks north of the d-zone with smart work. His job on that team, was really just, defend, get pucks out. Way more often than not, he did that, and created opportunities to score. This kid impresses the sh!! out of me.

I think we're a bit far down for Dickinson, he has to go right after Levshunov. There is so much there.

If we can manage O'Reilly later, I'm happy. I have little doubt that he'll end up a steal.

Same goes for Lukas Fischer. He'll be 17 for weeks and weeks after the draft.

I hope we jump some guys up from perceived rankings to ensure that we get them. Or move picks around.

There is a lot of depth in this draft. Lists are great, but have targets.

[MP5029]

18 hours ago, sak22 said:

So, a lot of players I like in the league and still wouldn't trade a top 10 pick for.  If you aren't trying to get a player at the lowest possible price then you shouldn't be in the league.  Maybe Markstrom is the guy everyone wants (I don't believe for a second he is), he still has all the control.  I usually hate being right on trade values, but I may make an exception on rubbing this one in on everyone if I am.

TBH before I watched Lebrun after the Combine I’d have been 100% on board with the Smith comparison.

 

now I’m sure it’s higher, isn’t a top 10

pick…I doubt that too.  I think it’s something in between.

 

in a package deal where NJD keeps a late first I could see the 10th OA being an option.  Moreover, I could also see Mercer coming back in a package deal as long as your sending enough assets to cover their current needs, which are:

 

1. grit with scoring up front…Cgy has this in Manji

 

2. Another D, Cgy has this in a very attractive Anderson Who fills a top 4 D role and has experience yet still not terrible old. He’s an excellent fit.

 

3. Top goalie, also check in Markstrom, who’s very much considered by Broudeaur as the best in the NHL…although I’m not so confident he is, he at times Can be.

 

so add the VCR 1st as a sweetener I think Cgy could get:

 

1. mercer

2. 10 OA

3. Holtz 

 

this seems like A  fair return and addresses needs of each team.  unless you address the needs NJD has in one move I don’t think they move Mercer.

 

as to the 10 OA I think if you move Markstrom and the VCR pick I think that gets it done but unless a later 1st is included it’s not moving.  Also it needs to address one of their three needs.

[cberg]

1 hour ago, MP5029 said:

TBH before I watched Lebrun after the Combine I’d have been 100% on board with the Smith comparison.

 

now I’m sure it’s higher, isn’t a top 10

pick…I doubt that too.  I think it’s something in between.

 

in a package deal where NJD keeps a late first I could see the 10th OA being an option.  Moreover, I could also see Mercer coming back in a package deal as long as your sending enough assets to cover their current needs, which are:

 

1. grit with scoring up front…Cgy has this in Manji

 

2. Another D, Cgy has this in a very attractive Anderson Who fills a top 4 D role and has experience yet still not terrible old. He’s an excellent fit.

 

3. Top goalie, also check in Markstrom, who’s very much considered by Broudeaur as the best in the NHL…although I’m not so confident he is, he at times Can be.

 

so add the VCR 1st as a sweetener I think Cgy could get:

 

1. mercer

2. 10 OA

3. Holtz 

 

this seems like A  fair return and addresses needs of each team.  unless you address the needs NJD has in one move I don’t think they move Mercer.

 

as to the 10 OA I think if you move Markstrom and the VCR pick I think that gets it done but unless a later 1st is included it’s not moving.  Also it needs to address one of their three needs.

I like the thinking, but adding the late 1st is excessive.  If you cancel out Holz and Mangiapane as “throw-ins” you are left with Anderson cancelling out Mercer and the 10oa for Markstrom and 28oa.  Flames get younger and more risk, NJ gets maturity and specific inputs to complement existing team.  OK, would probably do that deal even if it is somewhat unbalanced.  It comes down to the two picks…. 

[cross16]

21 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Mostly out of our control though.  The Flames weren't the only team to miss on picks in 2013 because that draft was awful overall.  Hopefully 2024 is better.  In fact, hope the next 3 drafts would be better too.

 

Not really, it was average. it turned out to be overhyped but if you look at what came out of that draft it's pretty average. top 20 in the first round was very good. 

 

Late round first picks are not the assets that many people think they are and quantity throughout the draft is more important than quantity in the first round. That's what I would pull out of 2013. 

[The_People1]

8 hours ago, conundrumed said:

I think we're a bit far down for Dickinson, he has to go right after Levshunov. There is so much there.

 

We are a bit far down for Buium too.  Silayev 6'-7" unicorn and all time highest 17-year-old scorer in the NHL.  And Parekh's game breaking offence and RHS.

 

But some may say we are too far down for Iginla and Catton as well.  But at the end of the day, math.  We are 9th.  Someone has to fall to us.

 

Bigger question is, if Dickinson is there at 9/10, then would you blow all our assets in one draft for him and make the NJD trade?