Ryan Francis - 5th rounder 2020

[jjgallow]

31 minutes ago, pikey7883 said:

I apologize for getting the conversation off of Ryan. And I appreciate your analysis of prospects especially goaltenders, but sometimes wonder what you base your expectations of prospects on? Eye test, stats, both, neither? I also like the potential of Ryan, but he is not ahead of Pelltier, Zary, and by your own admission Coronato. He will have to work very hard over the next 3 years to be in the top 9 conversation (and for the sake of the flames) I hope your right.

 

lol not many appreciate it but thanks.  It is a stress reliever for me.

 

I use everything, eye test, stats, scouting reports, believe it or not I get a lot of good information from experienced posters on here, but...

I am Far more stats focused than most.

 

You would obviously never want a stats-only approach.  But numbers don't lie, if they are interpreted correctly.  

 

What the numbers say is that there is a lot of opportunity to make better decisions.   An example, nearly all of the Flames top 9 is not suited to RW.  As such, Francis will only experience the barriers he sets for himself.     No so for most of the LHS forwards.

 

If I'm right and Francis takes advantage of it like I think he can, this conversation will change in a very short period of time.  But no, he's not our next Iginla.   This is not enough to change the overall story.

[kehatch]

3 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

I apolgize if it rubbed you the wrong way, to be honest this was an attempt to be positive which is why I tried to keep it mostly focused on Francis.   Admittedly it's not my strength.

 

It isn't about being rubbed in any way (that sounds awkward). The conversation is just going in circles.  All good. 

[Heartbreaker]

34 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

It isn't about being rubbed in any way (that sounds awkward). The conversation is just going in circles.  All good. 

 

 

Love.

[robrob74]

We haven’t really had anyone knocking down the door. If those young players can’t outplay boarder line NHL vets then they’re not good enough to play in the NHL. 
 

Mangiapane was a good pick. Dube was a good pick. Nearly the same players. Andersson was a good one. Outside of those, who have the Flames drafted outside of obvious picks in the first round to make the roster? I haven’t counted Gaudreau. And he’s not a Treliving pick. 
 

in a few years we will see how genius or dumb BT is in his wheel and deal year with Zary. I am with JJ, i would have drafted the D Schneider. 
or Foerster with that other trade. Needed a RW as well. 
 

I get you don’t draft for need, but if you don’t draft positions you have to trade to fill them. It’s what we do. 
 

so while we have drafted “well,” we haven’t drafted well enough to fill the holes left by bad trades to fill holes. 

[travel_dude]

9 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

We haven’t really had anyone knocking down the door. If those young players can’t outplay boarder line NHL vets then they’re not good enough to play in the NHL. 
 

Mangiapane was a good pick. Dube was a good pick. Nearly the same players. Andersson was a good one. Outside of those, who have the Flames drafted outside of obvious picks to make the roster? I haven’t counted Gaudreau. And he’s not a Treliving pick. 

 

How do we evaluate players on the team?  Mangiapane played 10 games in season 1, 44 in season 2 and full complement of games in the last two years.

Phillips had similar production in the AHL 2 years ago to what Mangiapane had in his last full AHL season.

Phillips zero games two years ago.

 

How are they supposed to knock down the door if the coach won't let them near the door.

We couldn't do anything to supplement Gaudreau on RW, yet we are unwilling to even consider somebody.

 

Gawdin and Ruzicka are at least NHL size if that's the problem.

Pospisil has grit and an okay scoring touch.

How do we really know what we have in any of them.

[robrob74]

1 minute ago, travel_dude said:

 

How do we evaluate players on the team?  Mangiapane played 10 games in season 1, 44 in season 2 and full complement of games in the last two years.

Phillips had similar production in the AHL 2 years ago to what Mangiapane had in his last full AHL season.

Phillips zero games two years ago.

 

How are they supposed to knock down the door if the coach won't let them near the door.

We couldn't do anything to supplement Gaudreau on RW, yet we are unwilling to even consider somebody.

 

Gawdin and Ruzicka are at least NHL size if that's the problem.

Pospisil has grit and an okay scoring touch.

How do we really know what we have in any of them.

gotta at least try them. 
 

one of the problems is stapling players together and not seeing if any might prop up a rookie. So we kept Monahan and Gaudreau together without trying anything else and only tried a few RW options. 
 

I agree, try them with actual NHL talent instead of playing them only with their AHL line mates. Why? Because they’ve had success with them? It’s doing exactly what they’ve done with the NHL roster until they realized it’s not working. 
They could have tried Bennett with Tkachuk, but Tkachuk was married to Backlund’s hip. 
 

maybe give a young guy the Backlund bump! 
 

so if they decide to put Monahan back with Johnny, try a speedy young guy. 
 

I get and understand your frustrations. 

[travel_dude]

45 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

in a few years we will see how genius or dumb BT is in his wheel and deal year with Zary. I am with JJ, i would have drafted the D Schneider. 
or Foerster with that other trade. Needed a RW as well. 

 

There's nothing wrong with Zary or Pelletier.

Doesn't matter if you have envy of Schneider or Lapierre.  Foerster was ranked 2nd round by most, so he wouldn't have been on the radar for 1st round. 

A defense over a centre.

Both are areas of need.

 

 

[jjgallow]

17 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

There's nothing wrong with Zary or Pelletier.

Doesn't matter if you have envy of Schneider or Lapierre.  Foerster was ranked 2nd round by most, so he wouldn't have been on the radar for 1st round. 

A defense over a centre.

Both are areas of need.

 

Not that it matters but a quick look at Bob Mackenzie shows Foerster at 29th, not that off.   Looking at the numbers I kind of feel I woulda gone with Foerster too although I admit you can make an arguement either way.   Literally only two goals difference for a 6'2 RHS winger...yeah....that's ....that.   But I still would have gone with Schneider...I think...over Foerster just becuase of how rare that calibre of RD is.  Probably   Schneider > Foerster > Zary.     

 

Anyway I wish the best for Zary and Pelletier and AND Francis as well as all of the fine candidates in the next Federal election, I am a big fan I am thinking only positive thoughts.

[travel_dude]

53 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Not that it matters but a quick look at Bob Mackenzie shows Foerster at 29th, not that off.   Looking at the numbers I kind of feel I woulda gone with Foerster too although I admit you can make an arguement either way.   Literally only two goals difference for a 6'2 RHS winger...yeah....that's ....that.   But I still would have gone with Schneider...I think...over Foerster just becuase of how rare that calibre of RD is.  Probably   Schneider > Foerster > Zary.     

 

Anyway I wish the best for Zary and Pelletier and AND Francis as well as all of the fine candidates in the next Federal election, I am a big fan I am thinking only positive thoughts.

 

Revisionist history.

Zary outscored Foerster in less games.

Schneider had a good season in the WHL.

Having strong 2-way C's is as important as a good two way D.

Schneider has warts as does Zary.

Neither are sure things.

Each has negatives about their games.

[jjgallow]

56 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Revisionist history.

Zary outscored Foerster in less games.

Schneider had a good season in the WHL.

Having strong 2-way C's is as important as a good two way D.

Schneider has warts as does Zary.

Neither are sure things.

Each has negatives about their games.

 

I will admit, ONLY and LIMITED to the case of Foerster, that's potentially revisionist.     On the other hand, I personally go by goals more than assists, something they are roughly equal at.   I would always take the RHS in that instance.     But, for the record, I would have taken Schneider anyway.    It's worth bringing up Foerster as there were Multiple RHSs in the ballpark, both D and RW.

 

For that same reason, I think Francis has every chance in the world given zero competition other than his own limitations, and the guy has enough skill.

[travel_dude]

50 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

I will admit, ONLY and LIMITED to the case of Foerster, that's potentially revisionist.     On the other hand, I personally go by goals more than assists, something they are roughly equal at.   I would always take the RHS in that instance.     But, for the record, I would have taken Schneider anyway.    It's worth bringing up Foerster as there were Multiple RHSs in the ballpark, both D and RW.

 

For that same reason, I think Francis has every chance in the world given zero competition other than his own limitations, and the guy has enough skill.

 

If you have any support of Button, he had Zary ranked at 11th, Bobby Mac 22, ISS at 15.

Getting a C that has a ceiling of 1C or a possibly less high ceiling RW, who would you pick?

I admit I do like picking top ranked RD, but Schneider was not top ranked.

Bobby Mac had him at 14, so it wasn't really consensus better than Zary.

 

It wouldn't have bee a dumb pick, but I also don't think Zary was.

[jjgallow]

30 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

If you have any support of Button, he had Zary ranked at 11th, Bobby Mac 22, ISS at 15.

Getting a C that has a ceiling of 1C or a possibly less high ceiling RW, who would you pick?

I admit I do like picking top ranked RD, but Schneider was not top ranked.

Bobby Mac had him at 14, so it wasn't really consensus better than Zary.

 

It wouldn't have bee a dumb pick, but I also don't think Zary was.

 

I like Button.

 

I trust No-one.

 

Button is very good at some things.   Picking centers and ranking them way higher than everyone else in the first round is NOT one of his strengths (cough cough Jankowski and about 6 others).

 

If button has a hidden gem in round 2 or 3, I want to know about it.   When he has a hidden gem centre in the first round, that's a hard pass.

 

He wasn't high on Schneider.  I get it.  Not much of a shot, etc.   But just any way you slice it I don't see the justification.  

 

Last year I wanted to upgrade our pick to get Askarov.    Even if I agreed with button on Schneider that would not have resulted in Zary.  Askarov had a .951 in the KHL this year as a teenager.   I'll take that kind of risk any day.  It would have solved the expansion issue too.

 

Even when I really try to bend my mind, I just can't do it.   And I have nothing against Zary, it's more us that I think will 

screw it up.  I really don't see the fit.

 

Francis,  meanwhile,  will have a very long leash.

[travel_dude]

10 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

I like Button.

 

I trust No-one.

 

Button is very good at some things.   Picking centers and ranking them way higher than everyone else in the first round is NOT one of his strengths (cough cough Jankowski and about 6 others).

 

If button has a hidden gem in round 2 or 3, I want to know about it.   When he has a hidden gem centre in the first round, that's a hard pass.

 

He wasn't high on Schneider.  I get it.  Not much of a shot, etc.   But just any way you slice it I don't see the justification.  

 

Last year I wanted to upgrade our pick to get Askarov.    Even if I agreed with button on Schneider that would not have resulted in Zary.  Askarov had a .951 in the KHL this year as a teenager.   I'll take that kind of risk any day.  It would have solved the expansion issue too.

 

Even when I really try to bend my mind, I just can't do it.   And I have nothing against Zary, it's more us that I think will 

screw it up.  I really don't see the fit.

 

Francis,  meanwhile,  will have a very long leash.

 

Yet, this year he had a bunch of D rated high compared to a lot of outfits.

4 in the top 10.

9 games for Askarov in the KHL.

1 game last year.

Askarov was very high in Button's list.

In his draft year, he was a 920 in the VHL, where he played all of 18 games.

 

No offence, Askarov could be the next Vasilevskiy.

10 games total in the KHL is a pretty small sample size.

[jjgallow]

3 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Yet, this year he had a bunch of D rated high compared to a lot of outfits.

4 in the top 10.

9 games for Askarov in the KHL.

1 game last year.

Askarov was very high in Button's list.

In his draft year, he was a 920 in the VHL, where he played all of 18 games.

 

No offence, Askarov could be the next Vasilevskiy.

10 games total in the KHL is a pretty small sample size.

 

And this is why I point to BT so much, Button's lists were not aweful.   He had Askarov high.  He had the D high.  He had Wallstedt high.  

 

But if you're on an unchanged mission to replace Niewendyk for a return to the glory days, you can interpret that list how you like.

 

Ultimately was Button's list followed to BPA in either year?  Not in either year.  Sure Zary was high but that was hardly the full story over those two years.   The list was used as a tool.  This isn't a list just full of LHS forwards.   We moved a lot of picks around to make that happen.   With a confidence that we chose to downgrade our picks when most scouts, and even reading Button's comments, we would assume would want upgraded.    That to me implies a cockiness that no experienced scout would have.   You just read what Button said about those top 10 players, about Askarov, about the D...it doesn't line up.

[travel_dude]

59 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

And this is why I point to BT so much, Button's lists were not aweful.   He had Askarov high.  He had the D high.  He had Wallstedt high.  

 

But if you're on an unchanged mission to replace Niewendyk for a return to the glory days, you can interpret that list how you like.

 

Ultimately was Button's list followed to BPA in either year?  Not in either year.  Sure Zary was high but that was hardly the full story over those two years.   The list was used as a tool.  This isn't a list just full of LHS forwards.   We moved a lot of picks around to make that happen.   With a confidence that we chose to downgrade our picks when most scouts, and even reading Button's comments, we would assume would want upgraded.    That to me implies a cockiness that no experienced scout would have.   You just read what Button said about those top 10 players, about Askarov, about the D...it doesn't line up.

 

Well, if it was so easy to trade into the top 10, at least one team would have done it.

The big fail was the play-in round we won.

From the first round losers onward, the picks got to be Zary etc.

One really not a lot better than others.

 

I could really care less about Button's list.  He's as much a blowhard as the other TV guys.

He has some sentient things he says, but he's like Pierre McGuire except he doesn't say "monster".

[jjgallow]

11 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Well, if it was so easy to trade into the top 10, at least one team would have done it.

The big fail was the play-in round we won.

From the first round losers onward, the picks got to be Zary etc.

One really not a lot better than others.

 

I could really care less about Button's list.  He's as much a blowhard as the other TV guys.

He has some sentient things he says, but he's like Pierre McGuire except he doesn't say "monster".

 

We didn't need to, but:

 

https://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Years/2021.htm

 

Happens basically ever year.  You'll see us up there on some years, on the losing end.

 

It's not easy but we didn't even need to get into the top 10 for Askarov.    And quite frankly if we didn't land Askarov we still would have gotten access to some amazing prospects up there.     

 

And the part you don't like:   Had we moved up for Askarov, we wouldn't have had to move up this year to get one of the top D.  We would have just been there.    And yes I'd still advocate getting another mid round pick with a similar setup to what Detroit had (also acquired).

 

We'd be halfway through our rebuild with not really any more loss than we have now (lost Bennet, Giordano to poor planning)

[zima]

2 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

We didn't need to, but:

 

https://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Years/2021.htm

 

Happens basically ever year.  You'll see us up there on some years, on the losing end.

 

It's not easy but we didn't even need to get into the top 10 for Askarov.    And quite frankly if we didn't land Askarov we still would have gotten access to some amazing prospects up there.     

 

And the part you don't like:   Had we moved up for Askarov, we wouldn't have had to move up this year to get one of the top D.  We would have just been there.    And yes I'd still advocate getting another mid round pick with a similar setup to what Detroit had (also acquired).

 

We'd be halfway through our rebuild with not really any more loss than we have now (lost Bennet, Giordano to poor planning)

I don't call it poor planning I call it bad owner ship and and Management given up on  gio to save a few bucks was just dumb but doesn't seem who we get to manage we seem to fail miserably I hope and pray we don't try and go after Eic it cost way to much and he will never be the same after his surgery 

[sak22]

20 minutes ago, zima said:

I don't call it poor planning I call it bad owner ship and and Management given up on  gio to save younger assets was just dumb but doesn't seem who we get to manage we seem to fail miserably I hope and pray we don't try and go after Eic it cost way to much and he will never be the same after his surgery 

Fixed for reality

[zima]

43 minutes ago, sak22 said:

Fixed for reality

Ok since you changed my post to add Younger assets none of those assets will ever match up to the quality of Gio on the ice so tell me who did they save that will be as good ad Gio now and 2 yrs from now Kyl ? Who do you think is worth saving instead of Gio ?

[jjgallow]

 

Well, I wanted this topic to have more attention.   Looks like I got it lol.   Not necessarily for Francis, but still lol.

 

It is true that they saved both cash and younger assets by letting Gio go in the expansion draft.   But only if you look at it from the perspective of the expansion draft just coming out of nowhere as a total surprise all involved.

 

Any degree of actual planning, and we did not need to lose any significant assets for nothing, young or old.  Most teams didn't.  We were just one of the last teams to plan for it and that's how it goes.

[zima]

34 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Well, I wanted this topic to have more attention.   Looks like I got it lol.   Not necessarily for Francis, but still lol.

 

It is true that they saved both cash and younger assets by letting Gio go in the expansion draft.   But only if you look at it from the perspective of the expansion draft just coming out of nowhere as a total surprise all involved.

 

Any degree of actual planning, and we did not need to lose any significant assets for nothing, young or old.  Most teams didn't.  We were just one of the last teams to plan for it and that's how it goes.

So just goes to prove that owner ship and BT should be let go but how do you remove owner ship unless you let the whole team go but I'm ok with that we will purchase the yots and you and Travel Dude can coach and manage between all of us on this form we could purchase the yots and make them the team we want to put on the ice. This will put an end to the Oil slicks and bring a cup home where it belongs

[robrob74]

On 8/24/2021 at 1:19 PM, jjgallow said:

 

I will admit, ONLY and LIMITED to the case of Foerster, that's potentially revisionist.     On the other hand, I personally go by goals more than assists, something they are roughly equal at.   I would always take the RHS in that instance.     But, for the record, I would have taken Schneider anyway.    It's worth bringing up Foerster as there were Multiple RHSs in the ballpark, both D and RW.

 

For that same reason, I think Francis has every chance in the world given zero competition other than his own limitations, and the guy has enough skill.

 

On 8/24/2021 at 2:17 PM, travel_dude said:

 

If you have any support of Button, he had Zary ranked at 11th, Bobby Mac 22, ISS at 15.

Getting a C that has a ceiling of 1C or a possibly less high ceiling RW, who would you pick?

I admit I do like picking top ranked RD, but Schneider was not top ranked.

Bobby Mac had him at 14, so it wasn't really consensus better than Zary.

 

It wouldn't have bee a dumb pick, but I also don't think Zary was.

 

I remember at the time I wanted Schneider. You're right, Foerster is an after shot and wishful thinking, mostly because of the RW need. But I would love for us to take a flyer on that type. I guess you meant on the radar for that specific spot to be drafted? Because if he's not on the radar then that's a problem. Tough to know who is on our radar. It would be nice to see how teams rank players and who are on who's radar after the draft. But that's not how poker is played in the NHL. It would be nice to see how the team operates and who they have as it could give us insight as to how they scout and show that they're actually doing more than just targeting LHS forwards to play LW. 

 

But at that spot, I was really hoping for a D. I know you don't draft for need, but all we had was Valamaki as a drafted D by then in a few years and we need to start thinking beyond Hanifin and Giordano, and at the time we had Hamonic I think. So we needed some RHS D to come up in a few years. You don't draft them, you gotta trade for them and the cost is high.

[jjgallow]

2 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

. So we needed some RHS D to come up in a few years. You don't draft them, you gotta trade for them and the cost is high.

 

That cost is still a bit higher than Zary IF he turns out, yes.   IF.

[travel_dude]

1 minute ago, robrob74 said:

 

 

I remember at the time I wanted Schneider. You're right, Foerster is an after shot and wishful thinking, mostly because of the RW need. But I would love for us to take a flyer on that type. I guess you meant on the radar for that specific spot to be drafted? Because if he's not on the radar then that's a problem. Tough to know who is on our radar. It would be nice to see how teams rank players and who are on who's radar after the draft. But that's not how poker is played in the NHL. It would be nice to see how the team operates and who they have as it could give us insight as to how they scout and show that they're actually doing more than just targeting LHS forwards to play LW. 

 

But at that spot, I was really hoping for a D. I know you don't draft for need, but all we had was Valamaki as a drafted D by then in a few years and we need to start thinking beyond Hanifin and Giordano, and at the time we had Hamonic I think. So we needed some RHS D to come up in a few years. You don't draft them, you gotta trade for them and the cost is high.

 

I would not be PO'd had we drafted Schneider.  Same way I'm not PO'd about Zary.

C or D, which should always be the first choices in a BPA situation.

You can argue the D was better than the C, but it's probably almost equal if not equal.

People complain about LHS as if they are taboo.

A LHS LW may be a lesser need in the case of a BPA, but there are sop many that are RW.

[robrob74]

4 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

That cost is still a bit higher than Zary IF he turns out, yes.   IF.

 

And that's what I am saying.