Ryan Francis - 5th rounder 2020

[jjgallow]

37 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

What did he play in the WJC?  A responsible checking forward meant to be the line you use when you don't want to be scored against.

Didn't score like Cozens and Turcotte, so he must be crap?

Gaudreau was never at the WJC to play defensively; he was there for offence.

 

Fine, so he didn't get lots of minutes lol, especially in the final games.   But I don't see how that takes one to a different conclusion.   He was on for both goals against in the final, which is why he was reduced to 13 minutes.

 

I'm not holding one game against him but I do not understand how being on the ice for both goals against in the final as the "experienced shut down man" is cause for elevating his status, sorry.  I can guarantee you that no other NHL team or fanbase watched that and was jealous of us.

[travel_dude]

21 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Fine, so he didn't get lots of minutes lol, especially in the final games.   But I don't see how that takes one to a different conclusion.   He was on for both goals against in the final, which is why he was reduced to 13 minutes.

 

I'm not holding one game against him but I do not understand how being on the ice for both goals against in the final as the "experienced shut down man" is cause for elevating his status, sorry.  I can guarantee you that no other NHL team or fanbase watched that and was jealous of us.

 

Your hatred of certain prospects comes out.

5 other Canadian players on the ice, but it must be his fault.

McMichael, Drysdale, Pelletier all out there for both GA.

Cozens, Krebs, Byram out for 1 each.

13 minutes of ice, plus the 2 minute penalty he got.

Obviously, after the 2nd goal, they shortened the bench.

Maybe he got the bench for the penalty or maybe the coach was just looking for something.

[jjgallow]

4 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Your hatred of certain prospects comes out.

5 other Canadian players on the ice, but it must be his fault.

McMichael, Drysdale, Pelletier all out there for both GA.

Cozens, Krebs, Byram out for 1 each.

13 minutes of ice, plus the 2 minute penalty he got.

Obviously, after the 2nd goal, they shortened the bench.

Maybe he got the bench for the penalty or maybe the coach was just looking for something.

 

Just because I think Francis is better than Pelletier does not mean I hate Pelletier.    I don't follow convention because convention doesn't have a very good track record.    I follow results and Francis comes out on top there.

 

I'll say it again, I'm not holding that game against him.  I'm just not elevating him for it.   Without an elevation, Francis comes out on top.

[zima]

On 8/20/2021 at 8:32 AM, conundrumed said:

You mean, "no matter how many teams he tried out for and made amongst his Canada-wide age group".

Pelletier is the most complete 200' fwd in our system. Thinking he's plateau'd is just stat watching. Stats mean nothing once you're drafted. What matters is working on weaknesses in your game and overall body strength for the next level. Small doesn't matter so much, center of gravity with your skating is more important.

Gezz he sounds a little like a Backlund type player stops the bad guys and pops in a few here and there every team needs one of them and he was picked just a couple picks later than Backs I wonder interesting hey. I myself was disappointed when we kept moving down and wonder what kind of player we could have gotten if we picked earlier but he did get 7 points in 7 games in the U20 and he was used mostly as a shut down guy was he not? It takes a diverse team to win and he does seem to check a lot of boxes me thinks 

[kehatch]

On 8/20/2021 at 12:08 PM, jjgallow said:

 

Just because I think Francis is better than Pelletier does not mean I hate Pelletier.    I don't follow convention because convention doesn't have a very good track record.    I follow results and Francis comes out on top there.

 

I'll say it again, I'm not holding that game against him.  I'm just not elevating him for it.   Without an elevation, Francis comes out on top.

 

'Convention' is a review by a bunch of scouts, coaches, and GM that have watched these kids play hockey several times.  They have spoken to them, given them fitness tests, talked to their coaches, and generally spend a lot of time and money in order to have an informed opinion.  With do respect, what have you done to suggest your opinion over 'convention'?  And as far as 'Convention' not having a good track record, based on what?  The success of players drafted in the top 10 is much higher then players drafted 11 to 30, which is much higher then players drafted 31-60, which is much higher then players drafted after that.  I would say convention has a great track record. 

 

As far as Francis goes, 50 points in 32 games is good output and it was a big jump from the year before. The fact that he saw his production increase following the trade helps answer the first big question surrounding him (can he drive a line, or is he benefiting from his teammates).  I like Francis, and I hope he does well.  But he was a fifth round pick for a reason, and he still has a lot of questions to answer (is he fast enough for his size, does his style of play transition to the NHL, etc).  I hope he does well.  Finding a RH C with good defensive play and a high work ethic isn't easy.  He definitely has the potential to be a top 6 C, and that is great.      

 

Tough to rank him ahead of the first round picks though, at least in my opinion.  For example,

 

• Lets look at Coronato.  His offensive accomplishment last season was more exceptional (almost a goal a game, league leader by a long margin) and he also has a strong defensive game and work ethic, the ability to play wing or C, and is also a RH shot.  But he doesn't have the speed concerns, he was clearly the driver on his line, and he is still on the small side but has a bigger frame then Francis.   
• Pelletier may not have seen a big jump forward on a quick look at NHL DB, but he led his team by a wide margin and was a big factor in getting his team to the Finals.  And yes, he may not have been an offensive juggernaut at the WJC, but he made Team Canada, played an important role, and wasn't a slouch offensively. I have a really hard time understanding how anyone would use the WJC as a knock against Pelletier, particularly in an effort to promote Francis.  
• Zary managed to put up 7 points in 9 games in a brief AHL debut, and a lot of people were raving about how he looked doing it.  He didn't take a big offensive jump in junior and that is a flag, but to be fair his team scored less.  He has such a complete game I think he is almost certainly going to be an NHL player.  We just have to see what the ceiling is.    

I am not saying Francis won't be a player.  He might even be a star.  In fact, I would suggest his star potential is higher then most of the other Flames prospects, he is just a longer shot to make the NHL IMO.  I certainly don't have a problem with you circling him as the top player.  But to be honest, your approach to be boosting Francis is a bit condescending to the other posters and prospects, and for no apparent reason.  Francis took a big leap last season and is worth being excited about.  I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise.

[jjgallow]

15 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

'Convention' is a review by a bunch of scouts, coaches, and GM that have watched these kids play hockey several times.  They have spoken to them, given them fitness tests, talked to their coaches, and generally spend a lot of time and money in order to have an informed opinion.  With do respect, what have you done to suggest your opinion over 'convention'?  And as far as 'Convention' not having a good track record, based on what?  The success of players drafted in the top 10 is much higher then players drafted 11 to 30, which is much higher then players drafted 31-60, which is much higher then players drafted after that.  I would say convention has a great track record. 

 

As far as Francis goes, 50 points in 32 games is good output and it was a big jump from the year before. The fact that he saw his production increase following the trade helps answer the first big question surrounding him (can he drive a line, or is he benefiting from his teammates).  I like Francis, and I hope he does well.  But he was a fifth round pick for a reason, and he still has a lot of questions to answer (is he fast enough for his size, does his style of play transition to the NHL, etc).  I hope he does well.  Finding a RH C with good defensive play and a high work ethic isn't easy.  He definitely has the potential to be a top 6 C, and that is great.      

 

Tough to rank him ahead of the first round picks though, at least in my opinion.  For example,

 

• Lets look at Coronato.  His offensive accomplishment last season was more exceptional (almost a goal a game, league leader by a long margin) and he also has a strong defensive game and work ethic, the ability to play wing or C, and is also a RH shot.  But he doesn't have the speed concerns, he was clearly the driver on his line, and he is still on the small side but has a bigger frame then Francis.   
• Pelletier may not have seen a big jump forward on a quick look at NHL DB, but he led his team by a wide margin and was a big factor in getting his team to the Finals.  And yes, he may not have been an offensive juggernaut at the WJC, but he made Team Canada, played an important role, and wasn't a slouch offensively. I have a really hard time understanding how anyone would use the WJC as a knock against Pelletier, particularly in an effort to promote Francis.  
• Zary managed to put up 7 points in 9 games in a brief AHL debut, and a lot of people were raving about how he looked doing it.  He didn't take a big offensive jump in junior and that is a flag, but to be fair his team scored less.  He has such a complete game I think he is almost certainly going to be an NHL player.  We just have to see what the ceiling is.    

I am not saying Francis won't be a player.  He might even be a star.  In fact, I would suggest his star potential is higher then most of the other Flames prospects, he is just a longer shot to make the NHL IMO.  I certainly don't have a problem with you circling him as the top player.  But to be honest, your approach to be boosting Francis is a bit condescending to the other posters and prospects, and for no apparent reason.  Francis took a big leap last season and is worth being excited about.  I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise.

 

I was making an effort to be positive, what I should have more accurately said is the Flames Convention does not have a very good track record.

 

It is hard for me to argue my point without being more condescending as you put it, and that's really not the intention. 

 

I'm definitely not putting Francis ahead of Coronato by any stretch.

 

Zary...maybe ...but it's too early.  

 

Pelletier, as said previously,  I'm not using the WJC to knock him.  But the Canadian WJC has a history of picking players for political reasons so in order for me to elevate him he would need to do better than he did.

 

I'm happy to have all of the above.  But it does get a Little frustrating that we just keep drafting LW and LHS centers every single first round, the least we could do as fans is acknowledge when a prospect other than LW shows promise.  Whether they went to WJC or not.   I only describe them as better, because they are.   No other reason behind it.   I don't expect it to remain controversial much longer either.

[sak22]

34 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

I was making an effort to be positive, what I should have more accurately said is the Flames Convention does not have a very good track record.

 

It is hard for me to argue my point without being more condescending as you put it, and that's really not the intention. 

 

I'm definitely not putting Francis ahead of Coronato by any stretch.

 

Zary...maybe ...but it's too early.  

 

Pelletier, as said previously,  I'm not using the WJC to knock him.  But the Canadian WJC has a history of picking players for political reasons so in order for me to elevate him he would need to do better than he did.

 

I'm happy to have all of the above.  But it does get a Little frustrating that we just keep drafting LW and LHS centers every single first round, the least we could do as fans is acknowledge when a prospect other than LW shows promise.  Whether they went to WJC or not.   I only describe them as better, because they are.   No other reason behind it.   I don't expect it to remain controversial much longer either.

Interesting take, care to elaborate?

[kehatch]

5 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

I was making an effort to be positive, what I should have more accurately said is the Flames Convention does not have a very good track record.

 

It is hard for me to argue my point without being more condescending as you put it, and that's really not the intention. 

 

I'm definitely not putting Francis ahead of Coronato by any stretch.

 

Zary...maybe ...but it's too early.  

 

Pelletier, as said previously,  I'm not using the WJC to knock him.  But the Canadian WJC has a history of picking players for political reasons so in order for me to elevate him he would need to do better than he did.

 

I'm happy to have all of the above.  But it does get a Little frustrating that we just keep drafting LW and LHS centers every single first round, the least we could do as fans is acknowledge when a prospect other than LW shows promise.  Whether they went to WJC or not.   I only describe them as better, because they are.   No other reason behind it.   I don't expect it to remain controversial much longer either.

 

As a simple exercise I looked at all of the forward positions that scored at a full season PPG pace (56 or greater)

 

• Center: 10 qualified. 1 drafted outside of the top 10 (8 in top 3, 4 1OA). Only 2 were RH shots. 
• RW: 4 qualified.  1 drafted outside of the top 10
• LW: 6 qualified.  4 were drafted outside of the top 10

 

Finding a star outside of the top 10 is incredibly rare, finding a star C outside of the top 3 is even more rare, and finding a top RH shot C even in the top 3 is almost impossible. There are a few things I take from that:

 

• The Flames draft a lot of LWs in the first round because that is what is usually what is available for us when we pick.  The odds are already long enough without passing on the best player available. 
• Outside of the top 10, teams are looking for NHL players with their high value picks (1st and 2nd round), not necessarily NHL stars.  You need some ELCs scattered throughout the line up when your playing in a cap system.  
• The third and later rounds are where you have an opportunity to swing for the fences.  

 

Obviously I am oversimplifying and working off of a limited sample of data, but I think the tone is accurate.  That is why guys like Pelletier and Zary are so valuable as prospects.  They have a high chance of becoming functional NHLs that can play a middle 6 role, and there game is developed enough they will likely be contributing before their owed a big contract.  That is also why a guy like Francis is worth getting excited about.  I don't know if he plays 10 games in the NHL, but if he does work out maybe he can be our Brayden Point?  

[jjgallow]

15 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

As a simple exercise I looked at all of the forward positions that scored at a full season PPG pace (56 or greater)

 

• Center: 10 qualified. 1 drafted outside of the top 10 (8 in top 3, 4 1OA). Only 2 were RH shots. 
• RW: 4 qualified.  1 drafted outside of the top 10
• LW: 6 qualified.  4 were drafted outside of the top 10

 

Finding a star outside of the top 10 is incredibly rare, finding a star C outside of the top 3 is even more rare, and finding a top RH shot C even in the top 3 is almost impossible. There are a few things I take from that:

 

• The Flames draft a lot of LWs in the first round because that is what is usually what is available for us when we pick.  The odds are already long enough without passing on the best player available. 
• Outside of the top 10, teams are looking for NHL players with their high value picks (1st and 2nd round), not necessarily NHL stars.  You need some ELCs scattered throughout the line up when your playing in a cap system.  
• The third and later rounds are where you have an opportunity to swing for the fences.  

 

Obviously I am oversimplifying and working off of a limited sample of data, but I think the tone is accurate.  That is why guys like Pelletier and Zary are so valuable as prospects.  They have a high chance of becoming functional NHLs that can play a middle 6 role, and there game is developed enough they will likely be contributing before their owed a big contract.  That is also why a guy like Francis is worth getting excited about.  I don't know if he plays 10 games in the NHL, but if he does work out maybe he can be our Brayden Point?  

 

I recognize the abundance of LW for sure, I might argue that if you gave done your weighted evaluations correctly  there isn't any more LW available than any other position.   If all one sees is LW then they might need to re-evaluatw their methods.

 

In 2019 the Flames passed on #17th overall ranked RHS Savoie, who does happen to already be further along and closer to the NHL than Pelletier. 

 

The following year they passed on the very clearly ranked  RD Brayden Schneider and I have a hard time believing that move will stand the test of time even with the extra picks.

 

2021, they pass on #7 ranked Wallstedt.   Sure other teams did it too but there is a pattern.

 

This is the convention I'm referring to, more accurately Flames Convention. 

 

They for sure catch a lot of LW and often ignore national consensus to do it.

 

 

It is only in the later rounds that they scoop up conventionally higher ranked players like Francis and this imho is why they have more success in later rounds.

 

[travel_dude]

3 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

In 2019 the Flames passed on #17th overall ranked RHS Savoie, who does happen to already be further along and closer to the NHL than Pelletier. 

 

 

I was actually going to bring up Lavoie as an example of the type of player smart teams avoid.  I assume you mean him.  The guy drafted by EDM in the 2nd round.

His work ethic was questioned and if you happened to watch the Memorial Cup final you would have seen an ineffective player.

Followed it up with 82 points in 55 games in his D+1 season.

Went to Seden's secondary league this past year.

10 points in 19 games in the AHL.

 

Closer to the NHL how?  Because he was an older player able to play in the AHL last season?

On an Oilers roster where they struggle with depth, he may be a choice.

Ryan McLeod was a p/gp player on that AHL team and managed to play 10 ineffective games in the NHL.

What's it all mean?

That tweeners and NHL ready are not always determined by player X being over 6'.

 

 

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

I was actually going to bring up Lavoie as an example of the type of player smart teams avoid.  I assume you mean him.  The guy drafted by EDM in the 2nd round.

His work ethic was questioned and if you happened to watch the Memorial Cup final you would have seen an ineffective player.

Followed it up with 82 points in 55 games in his D+1 season.

Went to Seden's secondary league this past year.

10 points in 19 games in the AHL.

 

Closer to the NHL how?  Because he was an older player able to play in the AHL last season?

On an Oilers roster where they struggle with depth, he may be a choice.

Ryan McLeod was a p/gp player on that AHL team and managed to play 10 ineffective games in the NHL.

What's it all mean?

That tweeners and NHL ready are not always determined by player X being over 6'.

 

 

I personally consider Edmonton to be more of a death sentance 

[kehatch]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

I recognize the abundance of LW for sure, I might argue that if you gave done your weighted evaluations correctly  there isn't any more LW available than any other position.   If all one sees is LW then they might need to re-evaluatw their methods.

 

In 2019 the Flames passed on #17th overall ranked RHS Savoie, who does happen to already be further along and closer to the NHL than Pelletier. 

 

The following year they passed on the very clearly ranked  RD Brayden Schneider and I have a hard time believing that move will stand the test of time even with the extra picks.

 

2021, they pass on #7 ranked Wallstedt.   Sure other teams did it too but there is a pattern.

 

This is the convention I'm referring to, more accurately Flames Convention. 

 

They for sure catch a lot of LW and often ignore national consensus to do it.

 

 

It is only in the later rounds that they scoop up conventionally higher ranked players like Francis and this imho is why they have more success in later rounds.

 

 

Every team in the NHL has their rankings. They don't always match TSN projections. The Flames are no different. And the Flames have drafted well over the last 5 years. Their ranking might be different then yours, but the results are there. 

[jjgallow]

17 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

Every team in the NHL has their rankings. They don't always match TSN projections. The Flames are no different. And the Flames have drafted well over the last 5 years. Their ranking might be different then yours, but the results are there. 

 

 

I think that depends on how you define results.

 

If it is...passable NHL player, yes.

 

If it is,  core player,  they are well below replacement rate.   With the exception of Adam Fox and that's a whole other story.

 

Their first rounders, in particular, rarely exceed passable if anything.  It shouldn't be surprising nor would it be unusual for a late pick like Francis to surpass our first rounder.   Granted we need more time to conclude on that measure but that seems to be how it's shaking out.

[kehatch]

3 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

 

I think that depends on how you define results.

 

If it is...passable NHL player, yes.

 

If it is,  core player,  they are well below replacement rate.   With the exception of Adam Fox and that's a whole other story.

 

Their first rounders, in particular, rarely exceed passable if anything.

 

Which team is drafting core players with any sort of regularity with mid and late round picks?Since Treliving has arrived they have drafted Tkachuk, Valamki, Pelletier, Zary, and Coronota in the first. Outside of Tkachuk (who was a high pick and is a core guy) who got drafted in the range of any of the above players that is now a core member of another team. I am not asking who you wish they would have taken. But removing subjectivity who are these core guys your referring to? 

 

There aren't any. After Pelletier there is one guy who has played more then a handful of games. Nobody in Zarys draft outside of the top 10 have played any NHL games. Coronato was just drafted. There isn't anyone in the vicinity of Valamki that anyone would consider a core guy either. 

[jjgallow]

10 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

Which team is drafting core players with any sort of regularity with mid and late round picks?Since Treliving has arrived they have drafted Tkachuk, Valamki, Pelletier, Zary, and Coronota in the first. Outside of Tkachuk (who was a high pick and is a core guy) who got drafted in the range of any of the above players that is now a core member of another team. I am not asking who you wish they would have taken. But removing subjectivity who are these core guys your referring to? 

 

There aren't any. After Pelletier there is one guy who has played more then a handful of games. Nobody in Zarys draft outside of the top 10 have played any NHL games. Coronato was just drafted. There isn't anyone in the vicinity of Valamki that anyone would consider a core guy either. 

 

So, looking at it from a math perspective, there will be.  We just don't know who they are yet.   It's a tough thing to evaluate in a 5 year window.   I know enough of our prospects that I don't feel it'll be us.   It certainly hasn't been us except when we are in a rebuild.

 

Basically, look at the top teams and the Stanley cup winners.   Most of those all produced core players in the first round in the 5-8 year range.     Tampa Bay, before that St Louis, etc.   Detroit looks good here too but they also have very high picks right now.   You either replace your core players with your pipeline and enjoy some great years, or you don't replace them, and you have some rough years.

 

Tkachuk was a great pick also a no-brainer.  I give some credit for not borking it.      Valimaki, I also had no issues with.  It got a little different after that though.

[kehatch]

33 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

So, looking at it from a math perspective, there will be.  We just don't know who they are yet.   It's a tough thing to evaluate in a 5 year window.   I know enough of our prospects that I don't feel it'll be us.   It certainly hasn't been us except when we are in a rebuild.

 

Basically, look at the top teams and the Stanley cup winners.   Most of those all produced core players in the first round in the 5-8 year range.     Tampa Bay, before that St Louis, etc.   Detroit looks good here too but they also have very high picks right now.   You either replace your core players with your pipeline and enjoy some great years, or you don't replace them, and you have some rough years.

 

Tkachuk was a great pick also a no-brainer.  I give some credit for not borking it.      Valimaki, I also had no issues with.  It got a little different after that though.

 

That's your opinion based on your assessment of the prospects, not fact. Which you are welcome to. But when you say things like "Their first rounders, in particular, rarely exceed passable if anything" that doesn't sound like opinion. Especially when you appear to be referring to the last three drafts.

 

We won't know for a few years, but a lot of external reviews have Calgary ranked pretty well in the prospect department.

 

Hockey Prospecting has us 5 this season. The hockey writers had us 20 last season, but that should jump up a bit with the performance of Wolf, your buddy Francis, and a solid 2021 draft. We would have been higher, but Valamki and Andersson were graduates. 

 

Most have us middle of the road, and that's about the best you can expect from a club not in an active rebuild. When your picking 16 to 20 range and not in a position to be sellers then your not going to have a top 5 system. 

[jjgallow]

10 hours ago, kehatch said:

 

That's your opinion based on your assessment of the prospects, not fact. Which you are welcome to. But when you say things like "Their first rounders, in particular, rarely exceed passable if anything" that doesn't sound like opinion. Especially when you appear to be referring to the last three drafts.

 

We won't know for a few years, but a lot of external reviews have Calgary ranked pretty well in the prospect department.

 

Hockey Prospecting has us 5 this season. The hockey writers had us 20 last season, but that should jump up a bit with the performance of Wolf, your buddy Francis, and a solid 2021 draft. We would have been higher, but Valamki and Andersson were graduates. 

 

Most have us middle of the road, and that's about the best you can expect from a club not in an active rebuild. When your picking 16 to 20 range and not in a position to be sellers then your not going to have a top 5 system. 

 

I stated it this way because it is fact and not opinion.  And it was you that was referencing the last 5 years.   While I fully admit it is too soon to draw a conclusion on that, the reality is that you Had to look in an inclonclusive window because we don't have any favorable conclusive windows.   We haven't had a first rounder outside of the top 10 become a core player since 2007's Backlund and as we know that is a significant grey area.   What's not a grey area is the next after him was Derrik Morris in 1996.

 

Teams I've mentioned above have done far more with their first rounders, via drafting, development, and simply not giving their first rounders away.

 

I'm not saying we're the worst at it.  We're not.   I might even agree with you on that middle of the pack assessment.

 

Are you happy with that?

[pikey7883]

I had to go back and look at Tampa’s draft record to see how good they actually were. And from most recent to 2017, they have only drafted 3 players total to play in the NHL. Cal Foote, Nolan Foote, and Alexander Volkov (who has played the most 46GP). From there I had to go back to the 2015 draft where I finally found Cirelli who they picked in the 3rd round to find a core player. I understand they did well drafting Kucherov right behind us a long time ago, they made a good choice in Point a Calgary boy who never should’ve gotten away from us, and they got Vasilevski. But I would definitely have to argue that our drafting in the past 6 years or so is vastly better than them. Obviously they’re in a completely different time in their cyclical progression coming off two Stanley cups and not worrying about drafting, but in 3-5 years time when they have no one in their system, people will wonder what their scouts were doing.

[jjgallow]

2 hours ago, pikey7883 said:

I had to go back and look at Tampa’s draft record to see how good they actually were. And from most recent to 2017, they have only drafted 3 players total to play in the NHL. Cal Foote, Nolan Foote, and Alexander Volkov (who has played the most 46GP). From there I had to go back to the 2015 draft where I finally found Cirelli who they picked in the 3rd round to find a core player. I understand they did well drafting Kucherov right behind us a long time ago, they made a good choice in Point a Calgary boy who never should’ve gotten away from us, and they got Vasilevski. But I would definitely have to argue that our drafting in the past 6 years or so is vastly better than them. Obviously they’re in a completely different time in their cyclical progression coming off two Stanley cups and not worrying about drafting, but in 3-5 years time when they have no one in their system, people will wonder what their scouts were doing.

 

this takes us on a pretty significant tanget from Ryan Francis but the reason their drafting is so much better is because they did it with lower first round picks.   The flames were in a rebuild in that time frame and picking top 10.

 

They emerged from a rebuild in 2011, and the players they picked were significantly more effective than in our rebuild, and they are core players on the team to this day.

Stamkos, Hedman, Conollly.   A Center, a D, a RW.    Better players, and better positions.   You can argue that's luck but I can make a good one (and have been) that it's not.    

Also some weird cases like Drouin, we also had our weird cases.

 

From there, for various reasons they draft with low first rounders and subsequently emerge.

 

They draft, without a single high pick:

Nikita Kucherev   (we could just stop comparing right there really)

Ondrej Palat

Vasilievskiy   (we could just stop right here too)

Point, as you mentioned

DeAngelo  (like him or hate him he's good.   They did the right thing.   They drafted the best player, traded him.  We could have done that same thing with Lavoie)

Cirelli

 

And after there it gets hard to judge, but their first rounds such as the Footes look good.

 

 

Over the same time period, we have:

Gaudreau

Tkachuk

Monahan

Adam Fox, Sam bennet***  weird cases

you could maybe add Valimaki?  But if you did, there're about 3 comparable defencemen tampa drafted that we coud add.

 

 

We both went through rebuilds but it just isn't close.

 

If you take away the top 10 picks, we're literally just left with Gaudreau.  If you limit it to first rounders, we're left with nobody.

 

They're left with a huge list of stars effective in the playoffs that will end up in the hall of fame.

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

I stated it this way because it is fact and not opinion.  And it was you that was referencing the last 5 years.   While I fully admit it is too soon to draw a conclusion on that, the reality is that you Had to look in an inclonclusive window because we don't have any favorable conclusive windows.   We haven't had a first rounder outside of the top 10 become a core player since 2007's Backlund and as we know that is a significant grey area.   What's not a grey area is the next after him was Derrik Morris in 1996.

 

Teams I've mentioned above have done far more with their first rounders, via drafting, development, and simply not giving their first rounders away.

 

I'm not saying we're the worst at it.  We're not.   I might even agree with you on that middle of the pack assessment.

 

Are you happy with that?

 

Before BT

2008 - 25th - Nemisz (played with Hall in junior, way overrated)

2011 - 13th - Baertschi (never fit into our core)

2012 - 21st - Janko (need we say how poorly Feaster was at drafting?)

2013 - 6th - Monahan (drafted early so we shouldn't count him right)

2013 - 22nd - Poirier

2013 - 28th - Klimchuk

 

With BT

2014 - 4th - Bennett (drafted early so we shouldn't count him right)

2016 - 6th - Tkachuk (drafted early so we shouldn't count him right)

2017 - 16th - Valimaki (too soon to say we did poorly)

2019 - 26th - Pelletier (too soon to say we did poorly)

2020 - 24th - Zary (too soon to say we did poorly)

2021 - 13th - Coronato (too soon to say we did poorly)

 

We know that Burke and Feaster had their own designs on the drafting, so really the only thing at issue is BT and the last 7-8 years.  Did he trade away 1st rounder?  So did the teams that were stacked and looking to be contenders.

[jjgallow]

21 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Before BT

2008 - 25th - Nemisz (played with Hall in junior, way overrated)

2011 - 13th - Baertschi (never fit into our core)

2012 - 21st - Janko (need we say how poorly Feaster was at drafting?)

2013 - 6th - Monahan (drafted early so we shouldn't count him right)

2013 - 22nd - Poirier

2013 - 28th - Klimchuk

 

With BT

2014 - 4th - Bennett (drafted early so we shouldn't count him right)

2016 - 6th - Tkachuk (drafted early so we shouldn't count him right)

2017 - 16th - Valimaki (too soon to say we did poorly)

2019 - 26th - Pelletier (too soon to say we did poorly)

2020 - 24th - Zary (too soon to say we did poorly)

2021 - 13th - Coronato (too soon to say we did poorly)

 

We know that Burke and Feaster had their own designs on the drafting, so really the only thing at issue is BT and the last 7-8 years.  Did he trade away 1st rounder?  So did the teams that were stacked and looking to be contenders.

 

Both these lists make me sad lol.   Valimaki was an ok pick in a weak draft.    Coronato I like, just not as much as Wallstedt.  I wish we had more picks in that draft, it was a good acquisition year.

 

An astounding number of LHS forwards are listed above, something is broken there.

 

The contenders do make better trades, for sure.   They do trade first rounders and they usually get a pretty good return when they do.   They also acquire them.

I don't believe we do either of the above.  You could argue Hamilton was a good return but the end result, nope.

 

The other thing the contenders do is they just pick the best player, even when they're not a fit.   Jonathan Druin, DeAngelo, they scoop them up.   Then they ship them off to a team that can't afford not to fill that position.  For a good return.    The draft is not marriage for them.   The marriage happens when the player starts succeeding at the NHL level.

We pass on players like these in favour of far less value.   Poor asset management.

@travel_dude  by your own assessment above, Pelletier doesn't project as a core player, more as a role player.  You're ok with that because of the intangibles.    I'm not, because players who projected as core players were available.   But that doesn't mean I would definitely hang onto them until they're 25 either.  They would either prove us wrong, or they would round off a near future trade and we would get a good return back.

 

Looking at these lists I feel like I must say, BT is not the worst GM in history.   There.    But he's also not the best and I want the best.   I think it's very debatable whether he's average.  If he is, I'm still not happy.

 

Putting away the GM blame for a second, these lists are not encouraging and I feel like they speak for themselves why we're rebuild bound.

 

Back to Francis (trying), he is going to get opportunities because of his position.   And because how the Flames don't acquire that position.

He will get opportunities in the AHL and the NHL and he will get minutes and experience and thus more coaching and attention.

 

He's skilled.

 

He thus has an outside chance at becoming a core player and I dare say a better chance than most of our prospects.

[kehatch]

I am going to exit the conversation.  JJ, you are operating under the presumption that the Flames have drafted poorly over the last 5 drafts and I don't agree with you.  I will agree to disagree.  Everything else is just noise based on that individual take.  

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, kehatch said:

I am going to exit the conversation.  JJ, you are operating under the presumption that the Flames have drafted poorly over the last 5 drafts and I don't agree with you.  I will agree to disagree.  Everything else is just noise based on that individual take.  

 

I apolgize if it rubbed you the wrong way, to be honest this was an attempt to be positive which is why I tried to keep it mostly focused on Francis.   Admittedly it's not my strength.

 

For sure, these last 5 years are entirely up to interpretation.  I get that.   But then, this isn't our first kick at this debate.  I'm pretty sure we had the same one, a more heated one, 5 years ago + as well.   No need for a re-do but I think it's clear now how that played out.

 

The only difference this time around is everyone is straight up admitting that that Pelletier's star potential is not there, but could still be valuable to the Flames.   And the only player with Star potential imho, Coronato, you disagreed with.  And I've given the list of players we've passed on.  So we're almost not even arguing about where the players are now as much as where the bar should be.   Anyway for what it's worth I think we will all be pleasantly surprised about Francis.  lol.

[travel_dude]

Overall, I am happy with some of our drafting over the last 7 years.

We have guys that have done fairly well in the AHL to date and could become everyday NHL players.

Unlike some teams, we have chosen to employ marginal NHL players instead of bringing in the cheap, young guys with some drive.

Many of these guys are young, especially the most recent (back to 2019).

Phillips, Ruzicka, Gawdin, Philp, Kylington are players that could have played NHL games more than they did.

Do these players suck?

No, we need to have guys like Forbort, Nesterov, Stone, Nordstrom, Simon, Robinson, Rinaldo, Ritchie gumming it up.

 

I look at a player like Phillips, who could easily have graduated the same time as Yamamoto; similar size, similar junior and AHL results.

We had opportunity to use players last year, where it was obvious at a certain point we were not making the playoffs.

We were lucky to use them in final throwaway games.

 

Francis is no better in junior than a lot of players we drafted outside the first round.  Is he further along?  Who really knows.

I like the pick, along with the choices of  Poirier, Kuznetsov, Nodler, Wolf, Stromgren, etc.

They represent picks that look for certain attributes.

They all have various things they need to do to get to the NHL, as do every prospect on every team.

Lafreniere still has a lot of work, and he is such a gifted player.

[pikey7883]

2 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

I apolgize if it rubbed you the wrong way, to be honest this was an attempt to be positive which is why I tried to keep it mostly focused on Francis.   Admittedly it's not my strength.

 

For sure, these last 5 years are entirely up to interpretation.  I get that.   But then, this isn't our first kick at this debate.  I'm pretty sure we had the same one, a more heated one, 5 years ago + as well.   No need for a re-do but I think it's clear now how that played out.

 

The only difference this time around is everyone is straight up admitting that that Pelletier's star potential is not there, but could still be valuable to the Flames.   And the only player with Star potential imho, Coronato, you disagreed with.  And I've given the list of players we've passed on.  So we're almost not even arguing about where the players are now as much as where the bar should be.   Anyway for what it's worth I think we will all be pleasantly surprised about Francis.  lol.

I apologize for getting the conversation off of Ryan. And I appreciate your analysis of prospects especially goaltenders, but sometimes wonder what you base your expectations of prospects on? Eye test, stats, both, neither? I also like the potential of Ryan, but he is not ahead of Pelltier, Zary, and by your own admission Coronato. He will have to work very hard over the next 3 years to be in the top 9 conversation (and for the sake of the flames) I hope your right.