Calgary Flames Drafting and Development: Your Analysis

[travel_dude]

11 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Pulling Lindy and Hanifin out of Carolina for Hammy, a decrepit Ferland and a "no"-fuscktard Fox was a great move.

They had Aho coming in and were rich on D. They could have kept Peters though.And Ryan.

 

EDM will rely on him with their lack of depth.

As much as I liked what Ryan did in the faceoff dot, he was easily pushed around a lot.

A little old for our mostly young team now.

They can have him, 600 year old Smith, 400 year old Keith and 90 year old Koskinen.

[robrob74]

I dunno how close we would watch players drafted around the time we traded down twice for Zary. H. Lapiere scored his first NHL goal the other day. Would Zary have made the NHL yet? 

 

I get Zary got injured. 

[sak22]

13 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

I dunno how close we would watch players drafted around the time we traded down twice for Zary. H. Lapiere scored his first NHL goal the other day. Would Zary have made the NHL yet? 
 

Schneider is also currently playing for the Rangers… 

 

I get Zary got injured. 

He's in the A.

 

Lapierre is in the boat where he played only 10 minutes, but scored a goal so he looks way better off.  If we played Zary 10 minutes on opening night and he didn't score the pitchforks would be out to send him to the A to play more.  Can we hold off on the judgment, its only been a little over a calendar year since the 2020 draft.  

[jjgallow]

On 10/4/2021 at 1:23 PM, sak22 said:

 

I'm not posting this to boast about Calgary's drafting over the past 30 years, this just doesn't show that they are as bad as some make them out to be.  To note this doesn't include goalies and the criteria is 0.7P/g for forwards and 0.45P/g for defensemen.  I believe the Flames picks were Stillman, Svehla, Phaneuf, Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk and Fox.  So it is a little disappointing that Svehla and Fox never played a game for the Flames and Stillman only made the list after being more productive after leaving the Flames, things do even out a little, the Flames wound up with Dallas' only star pick in the '90's, and Elias Lindholm's Flames production would put him on the list for Carolina.  Overall it isn't that bad considering only 1 top 5 pick, when you look at other teams near the bottom of the list who have spent more time picking in the top 5.

 

 

There's definitely worse out there.   I can't argue with that and this is a pretty good representation of that.

 

Are we the 9th best drafters in the NHL?   I will say no.    We're about middle of the pack imho, 15th or so.

 

This 30 year period just neatly envelopes our last two rebuilds, from Stillman rebuild to Monahan rebuild.     Plus a few mini rebuilds inbetween where we drafted high (Phaneuf).    The Flames have done reasonably well drafting in the top 10.    Nothing brilliant, but they've generally played the obvious plays in that range.  And in the last 30 years we've been in the top 10 picks pretty often for an organisation that "doesn't rebuild".  I don't give them extra credit for that but I don't take away points either.

 

Where I do give them credit is Gaudreau, Fox.   And the inspiration to the Gaudreau pick, Fleury.     While it's not enough, the Flames have found some diamonds.     Which I think puts them middle of the pack.    Where they seem to really struggle, is late in the first round.   Which is exactly where you need to be good, if you want to be a perenially competitive team.

 

 

[jjgallow]

25 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

I dunno how close we would watch players drafted around the time we traded down twice for Zary. H. Lapiere scored his first NHL goal the other day. Would Zary have made the NHL yet? 

 

I get Zary got injured. 

 

Trading down especially in the first round is almost always a disaster that gets worse over time.

 

Sometimes, it looks bad from the start, like Jankowski.  Othertimes, it is hard to say.  Like Zary.   But over time it almost always fails because there is an enormous separation of talent in the first round, even by a few spots.    I mean we are talking about the very very very tip of the talent bell curve.

 

Now sure if Zary turns out and we get a sleeper with the extra picks we acquired, it Might end up looking okay.   But math is working against us on this

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, robrob74 said:

I dunno how close we would watch players drafted around the time we traded down twice for Zary. H. Lapiere scored his first NHL goal the other day. Would Zary have made the NHL yet? 

 

I get Zary got injured. 

 

AT the end of the day, we will just compare the players drafted around where we picked.

Zary was a good choice, regardless of people's negative opinion of him.

He will be a NHL player.

If he gets 40 in his first full season and the others get 45 ot 50, is that a loss for us?

Considering where we tend to use these players, that would be huge win for us.

 

The difficult thing for players is a pre-season injury.

It derails any plan the team may have had.

They will need to play him on the AHL and bting him up the normal way.

A goal for Lapierre or Podkolzin doesn't really mean much,

They tend to get opportunity that is hard to come by for a lot of teams.

[robrob74]

3 hours ago, sak22 said:

He's in the A.

 

Lapierre is in the boat where he played only 10 minutes, but scored a goal so he looks way better off.  If we played Zary 10 minutes on opening night and he didn't score the pitchforks would be out to send him to the A to play more.  Can we hold off on the judgment, its only been a little over a calendar year since the 2020 draft.  

i did more research and saw that he’s not on the nhl team so I edited it out.

[Thebrewcrew]

Worth noting that Hendrix Lapierre was able to play opening night for Washington due to Nick Backstrom being injured. Not sure he plays the entire season with the Caps, as a first year pro.

 

Way too early to determine if he’s better than Zary. Nice for Lapierre to score in his first game, but so did Ben Hanowski…

[cross16]

Who makes the NHL first is not a very good gauge of prospect quality. Especially after only 2 years. 
 

if healthy I have no doubt Zary would have pushed to make the team and he’ll show that in the A this year. 

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

 

 

22 hours ago, robrob74 said:

I dunno how close we would watch players drafted around the time we traded down twice for Zary. H. Lapiere scored his first NHL goal the other day. Would Zary have made the NHL yet? 

 

I get Zary got injured. 

 

22 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

Trading down especially in the first round is almost always a disaster that gets worse over time.

 

Sometimes, it looks bad from the start, like Jankowski.  Othertimes, it is hard to say.  Like Zary.   But over time it almost always fails because there is an enormous separation of talent in the first round, even by a few spots.    I mean we are talking about the very very very tip of the talent bell curve.

 

Now sure if Zary turns out and we get a sleeper with the extra picks we acquired, it Might end up looking okay.   But math is working against us on this

So thats what its come to?  Judging the quality of a draft pick before they even get a chance to hit the ice.

 

Par for the course I guess.

[bigfaninlethbridge]

We are drafting and developing a 70's team in the 2020's.  We are hooped.

[jjgallow]

3 hours ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

So thats what its come to?  Judging the quality of a draft pick before they even get a chance to hit the ice.

 

Par for the course I guess.

 

You just literally described what the NHL draft is.

[robrob74]

42 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

You just literally described what the NHL draft is.

the theory was that there were similar talent levels in that range they the Flames traded down so it would al be equal and get a similar talent level, still getting someone they liked. But I’m the end all talent isn’t the same. Maybe Zary turns into the exact middle 6 player we need in 3-5 years. It could take that long to start making an impact. We look at Dube, not the same round, but it took a few extra years and he’s not quite there yet. But I would handicap it at 3 or 4 years. 
 

but for me, we needed to start a cast of good up and coming D, so I wanted a D and then a RW, then a C (preferred a RSC).

[cross16]

Taking about the trade down is misleading analysis. I think there is no question the Flames we’re taking Zary at 19 had they stayed but they felt they could get him later, which is typically why a team would trade down. So whether they were right about Zary over Schneider, Lapierre etc is fair to analyze and critique although too soon imo, but the trade down really has nothing to do with that. 
 

anytime you can get the player you want end pick up additional assets is a win. Even if they are wrong about Zary the decision to trade down will still be a win. They really are separate decisions. 
 

just like Jankowski. The decision to trade down was good, the decision to rank Jankowski over the likes of Hertl, Teuvo or Vasilivsky is what went wrong . 

[jjgallow]

11 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

the theory was that there were similar talent levels in that range they the Flames traded down so it would al be equal and get a similar talent level, still getting someone they liked. But I’m the end all talent isn’t the same. Maybe Zary turns into the exact middle 6 player we need in 3-5 years. It could take that long to start making an impact. We look at Dube, not the same round, but it took a few extra years and he’s not quite there yet. But I would handicap it at 3 or 4 years. 
 

but for me, we needed to start a cast of good up and coming D, so I wanted a D and then a RW, then a C (preferred a RSC).

 

Yup, and that theory was not held by any major scouting agency, and definitely not by the two teams who Happily traded with us.

 

It was an internally held theory held only by an organization known historically for getting their internal theories wrong late in the mid first round.

 

I can't make sense of it, when I look at the board.   Neither could anyone else outside the organization, and it doesn't look to make sense now either.

 

Nor did it the last time.

 

Let alone the fact that we literally needed a LHS forward like we needed a hole in the head and it is almost like we are running away from any kind of position that can help us in any way.

 

But yeah, I supported Jankowski and I will support Zary.   That is a totally separate issue the way I see it.   Absolutely I want Zary to succeed, I wanted Jankowski to succeed.    Totally different topics.

[jjgallow]

3 minutes ago, cross16 said:

Taking about the trade down is misleading analysis. I think there is no question the Flames we’re taking Zary at 19 had they stayed but they felt they could get him later, which is typically why a team would trade down. So whether they were right about Zary over Schneider, Lapierre etc is fair to analyze and critique although too soon imo, but the trade down really has nothing to do with that. 
 

anytime you can get the player you want end pick up additional assets is a win. Even if they are wrong about Zary the decision to trade down will still be a win. They really are separate decisions. 
 

just like Jankowski. The decision to trade down was good, the decision to rank Jankowski over the likes of Hertl, Teuvo or Vasilivsky is what went wrong . 

 

Quite literally trading down is not good, imho.   I don't see the rationale in saying it was just the ranking.  It was all of it.

 

But Zary, was a bit different.   They targeted Jankowski.    They didn't target Zary.

 

They traded down because they didn't do their homework and they didn't care who they got.     They weren't big on the RD available.  IMHO they were wrong, but ok, whatever.  There were other options available, but they didn't research any of them.

 

There were about 2 or 3 guys they were happy with and they knew if they traded down, one of them would be available.   It turned out to be Zary.

 

Problem is, those teams who traded with us had a reason for wanting to move up.  That reason is they did their homework.

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

You just literally described what the NHL draft is.

Maybe I should rephrase that.  Judging the quality of  writing off a draft pick before they even get a chance to hit the ice.

 

 

[Thebrewcrew]

I was unaware that getting a couple extra lotto tickets by trading down a few spots was such a bad thing 

[sak22]

1 minute ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

Maybe I should rephrase that.  Judging the quality of  writing off a draft pick before they even get a chance to hit the ice.

 

 

We will all be experts on the 2020 draft class in 10 years.  Some people are already experts and obviously are in the wrong career field.

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, sak22 said:

We will all be experts on the 2020 draft class in 10 years.  Some people are already experts and obviously are in the wrong career field.

 

Exactly what myself and others were told after the Jankowski pick lol.

 

Just to save you the suspense, 10 years from now if it is obvious that the downgrade was wrong,  people will still be happy to do it again as if nothing happened.

 

Because....that's what we're doing now lol

[The_People1]

We will also have to see how Jake Boltman and Jeremie Poirier turn out because they were the bonus picks we got for trading down.  So far Poirier looks like a gem.

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

We will also have to see how Jake Boltman and Jeremie Poirier turn out because there were the bonus picks we got for trading down.  So far Poirier looks like a gem.

I hope so. And hope it’s just not a Gustafson situation where he’s a PP specialist and it’s all he’s good for. Hope they turn out. I think for me, it really depends on how instrumental they are to their teams. If the three make the NHL but are average and say a Lapierre or Schneider are really good,  does that mean we’ve won the deal? Let’s hope Zary is a good one. He seems smart! 

[travel_dude]

4 hours ago, robrob74 said:

I hope so. And hope it’s just not a Gustafson situation where he’s a PP specialist and it’s all he’s good for. Hope they turn out. I think for me, it really depends on how instrumental they are to their teams. If the three make the NHL but are average and say a Lapierre or Schneider are really good,  does that mean we’ve won the deal? Let’s hope Zary is a good one. He seems smart! 

 

We can only hope he is a PP specialist.

When was the last time we had one, and no I don't count Gus.

Gio was already showing his age and we didn't add anyone with offensive skills.

 

[rickross]

Been a long road for Matthew Phillips! Hoping the kid gets a good look with his recent call up. He’s by far one of most skilled players in the organization, he could bring something we lost with Gaudreau’s departure 

[rickross]

I’d have to do a deeper dive but I’d be curious to know what our prospect pool would rate as. We have maybe 2 high end prospects in corronato and Wolf but things fall off a cliff from there. There’s not much too look forward to when looking at our pipeline as is. At face value we likely aren’t any higher than a C - right now.