Flames & Losing For Higher Draft Order.

[kehatch]

 Even though you don't like stats

 

I like stats.  Doesn't mean I like every conclusion someone makes using stats.  

 

Andersson is the points leader in the OHL.  Complaining about his offensive production seems a bit unreasonable.  Especially considering he is a D-man.  

[travel_dude]

Hey.   So, yes it's the "just like last year" part that is the concern.   I know points aren't everything.   I know we only need to look at someone like Monahan's junior stats to see how misleading year over year comparisons can be.

But....Monahan didn't spend another year in junior after the draft.  And if he had, he would have most likely torn the league apart.

 

Andersson has The most points in the OHL this year.  So yeah...that's good.  Basically the same as last year.

Goal-wise, he's been less impressive.   His goals have gone down.  And, they weren't overly impressive last year either.

His penalties have dropped, also not great.

 

Now I'll say something positive.   Even though you don't like stats

His plus/minus tells a story of huge improvement.   And I believe it.

 

Bottom line.... a 6' defenceman who can't score 10 goals as a 19 year old in junior, is not an immediate top 4 projection to me.

But I DO believe he's improving in many areas.  And is a great prospect.   And there's MUCH more to it than that.

 

I'm not ruling him out as a prospect.   But the "special" factor isn't there.  If he does become a top 4 defenceman....it'll be a project.

And imho, we will be needing something sooner than that.

 

Well, if you want to compare him to a player, why not use Ekblad as a better example?  Ekblad played 3 years in junior.  His 2nd season in junior he had 7g and 27a in 54 games.  He improved to 23g and 30a in 58 games in his 3rd season.  Ras, by contrast, played in Europe up until 2 years ago.  He adjusted his game to NA hockey, and was able to reduce his PIMs.

 

You may view him as nothing special.  Can I remind you of another top 2 d-man that played for Barrie?  Brodie.  I won't bore you with his stats.  

[jjgallow]

I like stats.  Doesn't mean I like every conclusion someone makes using stats.  

 

Andersson is the points leader in the OHL.  Complaining about his offensive production seems a bit unreasonable.  Especially considering he is a D-man.  

 

My stats jab wasn't directed at you, and was just friendly anyway, kehatch

 

Just to clarify (I think you know this already), Andersson is the points leader in the OHL for Defencemen (not for everyone).  In an unusually unproductive points year for defencemen (he had the same production last year and was quite a ways off from the leader).

 

He's a great prospect.  I've ranted and raved about the Flame's BPA prowess in that draft.  Couldn't have been more vocal about it.

 

But in this NHL...yes, your top line defencemen need to produce offence as well as defence.   I miss the Robyn Regher days.   I miss them dearly.   But looking at offence, when considering Top-Line production, is reasonable.

 

And I'm simply saying, he's very borderlined for that Elite role we need.  He's not a borderline prospect.  It's different.   

 

And yes, even that elite role Is possible, but with him it Would be a project, and take time.   I think that is an entirely reasonable statement to make.   And to disagree, I would suggest to be bordering on hype.

[jjgallow]

On the bolded I agree judging a D by goals is useless. If he becomes a solid NHL defenseman we picked a good 1.

 

Points from a D are something I view as a bonus. My favorites are the 1s that come off breakout passes but I value goals prevented like I do points for. I think goalies do as well.

 

I do too.   Defence matters a Lot.   I'm not evaluating his ability to be an effective NHL player.   I'm evaluating his ability to be an elite top-line player.   And lets be honest.  He's not elite defensively.  Never was.   He's not a bone-crusher.  He's an offensive talent.  He is.  So that's why I'm evaluating it.    And, because we Need someone elite.  Probably soon.   

 

Again, great prospect.  It's about the context.

[jjgallow]

Well, if you want to compare him to a player, why not use Ekblad as a better example?  Ekblad played 3 years in junior.  His 2nd season in junior he had 7g and 27a in 54 games.  He improved to 23g and 30a in 58 games in his 3rd season.  Ras, by contrast, played in Europe up until 2 years ago.  He adjusted his game to NA hockey, and was able to reduce his PIMs.

 

You may view him as nothing special.  Can I remind you of another top 2 d-man that played for Barrie?  Brodie.  I won't bore you with his stats.  

 

Ok.    Sigh.   I'm thinking we see the Flames needs as different, based on those comparisons.

 

The only thing you didn't mention about Ekblad, is that everything you compared, Ekblad was a year younger.  And showed massive year over year improvements.  Yes, Andersson had to adjust to NA hockey.  All the more reason one would expect More of a year over year improvement in NA.  But stats wise, we didn't see much of it.  Oh....and...even ignoring the age difference, Ekblad's way ahead on goals.

 

Bottom line on Ekblad, and I hope this goes without saying:   There IS no comparison.   Ekblad is literally a full season ahead in development, has significant size advantage, has more goal-scoring touch, you name it.

 

But I think you already know that (?).      Maybe the real issue, is that you don't think we really need an Ekblad.

 

I do.   I think we need an Ekblad.  That's why I'm saying Andersson falls short of that.  Not because he's not a bad prospect.  I'm saying, IMHO, we need an Ekblad.  And he's not.      

 

I'm even going as far to say that, one day, Andersson could develop Into an Ekblad (always a chance).   But, either way, IMHO, we can't wait that long.   Our cup window awaits.

 

p.s....TJ Brodie..... Actually, when Brodie was the same age as Andersson is now, he scored more goals, was similar in points, and was Extremely productive in the playoffs.  Something I place a lot of emphasis on.   

 

Even offensively, I would have rated Brodie higher at the same age.  Especially because of the year-over-year marked improvement, and accelerated development.    

 

And, Right from the get-go, Brodie wasn't ever about offense.  It was all his other intangibles.

 

So basically, age-for-age, Rasmus's greatest strength (offense) was not as good as TJ Brodie's weakest attribute (offense).  TJ was also statistically accelerating, while Rasmus....isn't.

 

Even with all that, TJ Brodie was  a LONG SHOT.   Only after years of development and defying the odds, did he get to where he is.   He was Absolutely  a Project.

 

So when I call Andersson a potential project, that's not an insult.   He would likely be a Bigger, Longer project than Brodie.  And he would have to beat even More odds than Brodie did.    To be elite, that is.

[travel_dude]

^^^^^

 

How many top pairing D-men do you think we need right now?  We have three, we don't need another now.  That is not our biggest need.

 

I compared Ekblad because you make it sound like Andersson's offense is so far behind a good players.  Offense is offense; spin it any way you like to attempt prove your point.  Ekblad had 63 points in his first two seasons, regardless of age.  Andersson had 124 in two seasons. Ekblad had 53 points in his draft season.  The only thing he ever beat Andersson in was goals.  That does not make Andersson a top 2 defender in the making, but don't make it sound like his offense is laughable or not in the same league as Ekblad.

What makes Ekblad so special is that he did it at a young age.   

 

Call him a long term project if you like, because it supports your argument that we need to address defense now.  If anything, we need coaching to help with special team coverage, zone exits, and coverage.

[AlbertaBoy12]

^^^^^

 

How many top pairing D-men do you think we need right now?  We have three, we don't need another now.  That is not our biggest need.

 

I compared Ekblad because you make it sound like Andersson's offense is so far behind a good players.  Offense is offense; spin it any way you like to attempt prove your point.  Ekblad had 63 points in his first two seasons, regardless of age.  Andersson had 124 in two seasons. Ekblad had 53 points in his draft season.  The only thing he ever beat Andersson in was goals.  That does not make Andersson a top 2 defender in the making, but don't make it sound like his offense is laughable or not in the same league as Ekblad.

What makes Ekblad so special is that he did it at a young age.   

 

Call him a long term project if you like, because it supports your argument that we need to address defense now.  If anything, we need coaching to help with special team coverage, zone exits, and coverage.

Thank you. I also dont get where this came from that to be an elite defender you need to be putting up eric karlsson esk totals. There are plenty of dmen who are elite who dont put up loads of points.

[jjgallow]

Lol....I am not sure what is going on anymore.

I call Rasmus a project, people are mad and claim he'll peak in 1-2 years. I explain that likelihood, and now others think I must have sinister reasons for calling him a project lol.

He gets compared to Ekblad. Compared....to Ekblad. I point out some differences. And people are mad lol. And.....apparently. ...it was My fault that they compared him to Ekblad

Look...hey....whatever.

I think we need an Ekblad. That's my opinion. Already talked about it on here. Like it...don't like it, but if you disagree then say something that hasn't already been said 30 times, or just let me have my opinion.

And yes....there is always the possibility that a defenseman specifically known for their offense...could turn out to be elite at something that isn't offense. Anything is possible in this world.

Maybe he'll be a world class fighter. I don't know.

This disagreement is clearly less about Rasmus ...more about the Flames needs.

[phoenix66]

So am I the only one anxiously awaiting tomorrow nights tank bowl Toronto Buffalo game? Could be the most important game of the year for both teams!

A Buffalo loss and they stay within striking distance of that elusive bottom 6..a Toronto loss and they keep a strong grasp on bottom 3

Preparation is Already underway.. Buffalo has shut down Lehner for the year, and not to be outdone the Leafs will stockpile the lineup with a record number of rookies.

Should be epic!

[AlbertaBoy12]

Lol....I am not sure what is going on anymore.

I call Rasmus a project, people are mad and claim he'll peak in 1-2 years. I explain that likelihood, and now others think I must have sinister reasons for calling him a project lol.

He gets compared to Ekblad. Compared....to Ekblad. I point out some differences. And people are mad lol. And.....apparently. ...it was My fault that they compared him to Ekblad

Look...hey....whatever.

I think we need an Ekblad. That's my opinion. Already talked about it on here. Like it...don't like it, but if you disagree then say something that hasn't already been said 30 times, or just let me have my opinion.

And yes....there is always the possibility that a defenseman specifically known for their offense...could turn out to be elite at something that isn't offense. Anything is possible in this world.

Maybe he'll be a world class fighter. I don't know.

This disagreement is clearly less about Rasmus ...more about the Flames needs.

Its more that your opinion is based solely on stats, and nothing else that bugs me. I dont see why we need a another elite dman, and you are the only one on the forums who thinks gio is going to go belly up by next year. So yes youre entitled your opinion but people are going to disagree.

 

I could have argued your opinion on hickey or kylington but I chose rasmus. Kylington has struggled on the defensive size of the puck in the minors a little bit, but he is an 18 year old playing in the AAA. All the returns on him have been that he is growing and learning, but he is still 18. There is no reason he cant be a top 4, considering he has been doing that in the minors(did I mention he was called the best skater in the draft).

[The_People1]

Yuck, 8-3.  These are the kind of tank jobs that tank supporters hate.

 

Because they bring out the anti-tank crowd.  What an ugly game. Keep them 2-1, hard working and hard fought until the end.

So am I the only one anxiously awaiting tomorrow nights tank bowl Toronto Buffalo game? Could be the most important game of the year for both teams!
A Buffalo loss and they stay within striking distance of that elusive bottom 6..a Toronto loss and they keep a strong grasp on bottom 3
Preparation is Already underway.. Buffalo has shut down Lehner for the year, and not to be outdone the Leafs will stockpile the lineup with a record number of rookies.
Should be epic!

 

At this point, I'm more for keeping Buffalo away from us than pulling Toronto closer.

 

I hope they go into OT and Buffalo wins.

[phoenix66]

Yuck, 8-3. These are the kind of tank jobs that tank supporters hate.

Because they bring out the anti-tank crowd. What an ugly game. Keep them 2-1, hard working and hard fought until the end.

At this point, I'm more for keeping Buffalo away from us than pulling Toronto closer.

I hope they go into OT and Buffalo wins.

I dunno.. We have a decent lead on Buffalo ..nobody is catching Edmonton.. We could easily catch and pass Toronto Columbus and Vancouver.. But they need wins.im thinking I'm pulling for a Toronto OT victory myself

[maynezy]

I dunno.. We have a decent lead on Buffalo ..nobody is catching Edmonton.. We could easily catch and pass Toronto Columbus and Vancouver.. But they need wins.im thinking I'm pulling for a Toronto OT victory myself

 

I think if the flames get 3 or more points in these last 5 games nobody behind them Is catching up. I feel like Vancouver is in obvious tank mode, they cant even put the puck in the net. Edmonton is nailing down last again, they already played 79 games !!!! Columbus maybe, but doubt they pass us, we are probably landing in the 5-6 spot, maybe 3-4 if we're lucky come season end. Then let the draft odds take over from there I guess...... #%*^ you Edmonton.

[robrob1974]

Its more that your opinion is based solely on stats, and nothing else that bugs me. I dont see why we need a another elite dman, and you are the only one on the forums who thinks gio is going to go belly up by next year. So yes youre entitled your opinion but people are going to disagree.

I could have argued your opinion on hickey or kylington but I chose rasmus. Kylington has struggled on the defensive size of the puck in the minors a little bit, but he is an 18 year old playing in the AAA. All the returns on him have been that he is growing and learning, but he is still 18. There is no reason he cant be a top 4, considering he has been doing that in the minors(did I mention he was called the best skater in the draft).

Another thing about Kylington is that he is an 18 year old in the minors, in a boy's body. He has good wheels, like you said, but like most 18 year olds, he still has a lot of room to grow into himself. Once he puts on some adult muscle, his defensive side of the game can change as well.

Much like how we believe an over ager can dominate junior, an 18 year old who hasn't developed a few years of muscle can be the opposite.

The Average starting age in the AHL is what, 20-21? That's 2-3 years of development they have on him, and that's body as well. Plus, you have a range of 20-28 year old men fighting for their lives to get noticed by their teams.

Some players with higher skill have said the NHL can be considered easier because the skill affects of the flow of the game.

[420since1974]

I could see Kylington potentially needing another two seasons in Stockton.

He definitely needs to bulk up some.

 

Andersson also may need two years in the AHL learning the Pro game.

 

Who knows, we might see a Kylington - Andersson pairing on the Flames in 2018/2019.

[travel_dude]

I could see Kylington potentially needing another two seasons in Stockton.

He definitely needs to bulk up some.

 

Andersson also may need two years in the AHL learning the Pro game.

 

Who knows, we might see a Kylington - Andersson pairing on the Flames in 2018/2019.

 

Ras was a little slow for an offensive D-man at last camp, but he's still young.  When he turns pro, he has to commit to fitness and improving his speed.  He was a late cut at training camp, but he needs to show what he is in the AHL first.  I don't put any timetable on him playing in the NHL, since he only has played two years in NA.

 

Kylington has the speed now.  He needs to gain strength, but that is more to improve his defensive side.  He has played in so many league in the past few years that it's just a guess when he is ready.

 

The good thing is there is no rush.  We have enough bottom pairing guys in the system, on the roster, or available from the farm.  I think that either Jokipakka or Nakladal could play on the 2nd pair next season.  Nak's slapshot is harder and more accurate than Wide-man's.  Jokipakka is at least a replacement for Russell on the 3rd pair.  He could even play up to the 2nd pair.

[The_People1]

I dunno.. We have a decent lead on Buffalo ..nobody is catching Edmonton.. We could easily catch and pass Toronto Columbus and Vancouver.. But they need wins.im thinking I'm pulling for a Toronto OT victory myself

I think if the flames get 3 or more points in these last 5 games nobody behind them Is catching up. I feel like Vancouver is in obvious tank mode, they cant even put the puck in the net. Edmonton is nailing down last again, they already played 79 games !!!! Columbus maybe, but doubt they pass us, we are probably landing in the 5-6 spot, maybe 3-4 if we're lucky come season end. Then let the draft odds take over from there I guess...... #%*^ you Edmonton.

 

A few weeks ago, I predicted we would finish around 70 to 72 points but looking at the remaining schedule, it doesn't look good.

 

Flames @ Kings --> Most definitely a loss but teams usually bounce back strong after a blowout so, you never know.

Flames @ Oilers --> Critical game for the reverse standings.  I think the Flames win.

Kings @ Flames --> Kings are a really good road team so I think the Flames lose this one.

Canucks @ Flames --> Guaranteed win for the Flames.

Flames @ Wild --> The Wild probably have the playoffs clinched by this time so, they may play their back-up and rest their top guys.

 

I think the Flames can easily win 3 of their last 5 games.

[phoenix66]

A few weeks ago, I predicted we would finish around 70 to 72 points but looking at the remaining schedule, it doesn't look good.

 

Flames @ Kings --> Most definitely a loss but teams usually bounce back strong after a blowout so, you never know.

Flames @ Oilers --> Critical game for the reverse standings.  I think the Flames win.

Kings @ Flames --> Kings are a really good road team so I think the Flames lose this one.

Canucks @ Flames --> Guaranteed win for the Flames.

Flames @ Wild --> The Wild probably have the playoffs clinched by this time so, they may play their back-up and rest their top guys.

 

I think the Flames can easily win 3 of their last 5 games.

 

 

youre forgetting the wildcards

Ortio likely gets both Kings games-- legitimate losses

Hiller will get either the oilers or Canucks.. backstrom likely the other

Backstrom almost guaranteed the Wild  game

 

good chance we lose em all.. lol.. if anythng we steal one from the Kings

 

as for tonight ..3-0 buffalo so far -- guess TO wants it more!

[jjgallow]

Its more that your opinion is based solely on stats, and nothing else that bugs me. I dont see why we need a another elite dman, and you are the only one on the forums who thinks gio is going to go belly up by next year. 

 

Ok.....your second sentence seems to be in direct conflict with your first sentence.    

 

Since I know you painstakingly scout, interview, weigh, blood test, and O2max each player before discussing them on these boards, and since I don't actually watch games and only comment after updating my Universal Hockey Spreadsheet each night....I can see where this would bug you.

 

Of course, what I just wrote, would be true, if we lived in a black and white world of absolutes.

[AlbertaBoy12]

Ok.....your second sentence seems to be in direct conflict with your first sentence.    

 

Since I know you painstakingly scout, interview, weigh, blood test, and O2max each player before discussing them on these boards, and since I don't actually watch games and only comment after updating my Universal Hockey Spreadsheet each night....I can see where this would bug you.

 

Of course, what I just wrote, would be true, if we lived in a black and white world of absolutes.

Sorry yes it was in a way. But I was referring to your opinion on players and stats. While im not saying I scout every player that I offer opinion on, I also dont get to scoring leaders of a league and say insert name here would be a good addition or good draft pick because he scores goals. It bugs me that you write off our top 3 d prospects because of stats basically.

[phoenix66]

3-1.. Buffalo is coming alive!  dear sweet lord.. TO being outshot 31-11  LOL

[The_People1]

With Buffalo's win against the Leafs yesterday, they have created separation in the standings from the rest of the pack.  It's now down to a 6 team race for the best lotto odds.

 

The Flames need to start Backstrom on Saturday against the Oilers.  Johnny took a pretty heavy slash on the wrist yesterday against LA.  Maybe he should sit out Saturday...

[travel_dude]

With Buffalo's win against the Leafs yesterday, they have created separation in the standings from the rest of the pack.  It's now down to a 6 team race for the best lotto odds.

 

The Flames need to start Backstrom on Saturday against the Oilers.  Johnny took a pretty heavy slash on the wrist yesterday against LA.  Maybe he should sit out Saturday...

 

The Oilers and Nucks get to beat up on each other for last place.  

 

If I didn't care about pride and only wanted the Flames to finish 3oth or 29th, I would hope for the following:

Oilers beat Flames, and take one of the Nucks games.

Nucks beat the Oilers and Ducks.

Columbus wins out.

CGY looses to LA, VAN, Oilers and Wild.

 

I think that would get us 29th depending on the Leafs.

 

groan....

[The_People1]

The Oilers and Nucks get to beat up on each other for last place.  

 

If I didn't care about pride and only wanted the Flames to finish 3oth or 29th, I would hope for the following:

Oilers beat Flames, and take one of the Nucks games.

Nucks beat the Oilers and Ducks.

Columbus wins out.

CGY looses to LA, VAN, Oilers and Wild.

 

I think that would get us 29th depending on the Leafs.

 

groan....

 

Saturday is such a critical game.  It's not the Battle of Alberta we were hoping for when the season began, or ever.  But it is what it is... we can't let the Oilers win another lottery.  They need to win out their season. 

[travel_dude]

Saturday is such a critical game.  It's not the Battle of Alberta we were hoping for when the season began, or ever.  But it is what it is... we can't let the Oilers win another lottery.  They need to win out their season. 

 

As much as we need the top 3 pick, there has been too many times where a lotto pick decides who gets 1st.  COL and EDM have won it.  NJD won it back when you could only move up 5 spots.  Seems like 28th in the league wins more than 29th.  Just need the Oilers to be out of the top 5.  Don't think that is possible.  They could beat the Flames, but I don't think they win 3 in a row.