kehatch Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 Dec 23 W Dec 27 W Dec 31 W (+2) Jan 1 W Jan 3 L Jan 5 L (0) Jan 7 OT Jan 11 OT Jan 14 W (0) Jan 15 W Jan 17 OT Jan 19 L (-1) Jan 21 W Jan 22 W Jan 24 W (+1) Jan 26 W Feb 1 W Feb 3 W (+3) Feb 5 OT Feb 7 W Feb 9 W (+4) Feb 11 OT Feb 12 L Feb 14 W (+3) Feb 16 W Feb 20 W Feb 22 L (+3) Feb 25 OT Feb 27 W Mar 1 W (+4) Mar 2 L Mar 4 W Mar 6 W (+4) Mar 9 W Mar 10 L Mar 12 L (+2) Mar 15 L Mar 17 W Mar 20 OT (+1) Mar 21 OT Mar 23 L Mar 26 W (0) Mar 30 L Apr 1 W Apr 3 W (0) Apr 6 Apr 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlameForLife Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 A couple of things to note here, first I dont get how you go from one behind the pace to one ahead of the pace. By your statistics we are now on pace with the 3 for 3. Also yes we do have a good number of shootout wins but if we are tied for 8th at the end of the season, the priority checker is wins. There are teams with more ot losses then us which would give us priority in a tie. This being said if we keep winning in OT then we wont have to worry about it. Also I dont really see how this 2 out of 3 applies anymore. It was meant to be a motivator and put perspective on how the flames will get back into the mix of things. Well we are now back in the mix of things, all we have to focus on is beating teams directly ahead and behind us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kehatch Posted February 4, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 A couple of things to note here, first I dont get how you go from one behind the pace to one ahead of the pace. By your statistics we are now on pace with the 3 for 3. Also yes we do have a good number of shootout wins but if we are tied for 8th at the end of the season, the priority checker is wins. There are teams with more ot losses then us which would give us priority in a tie. This being said if we keep winning in OT then we wont have to worry about it. Also I dont really see how this 2 out of 3 applies anymore. It was meant to be a motivator and put perspective on how the flames will get back into the mix of things. Well we are now back in the mix of things, all we have to focus on is beating teams directly ahead and behind us. The math is pretty straighforward. There are 6 possible points in a 3-game stretch. The goal is to get 4. You are thinking games. Doesn't work counting games because you miss the OT 1-point games. First set: 4-points for a total of 4. Goal is 4. (on pace) Second set: 2-points for a total of 6. Goal is 8. (-2) Third set: 5-points for a total of 11. Goal is 12. (-1) Fourth set: 4-points for a total of 15. Goal is 16. (-1) Fifth set: 6-points for a total of 21. Foal is 20. (+1) As for the tie breaker, the new rule this season is that Shoot-Out wins do NOT count in your win category for tiebreakers. From the NHL standings site regarding tie breakers: 1. The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage). 2. The greater number of games won, excluding games won in the Shootout (NEW for 2010-11). 3. The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing. 4. The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season. As for why does it matter. Why wouldn't it? We are 1-point over the pace. If we find ourselves locked in a playoff spot it stops mattering. Otherwise this is much more predictable way to look at the Flames playoff chances then trying to predict how 9-teams are going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kehatch Posted February 8, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2011 Updated for Feb 9. Changed the sets a bit to match what is on the Flames white-board at the dome. Right now it is a 7-horse race for the final 5-spots. Thought that could change if San Jose drops at all or Columbus, Colorado, or St. Louis picks it up. Friday is another big night. The Flames win they move up to 7. If they lose they could drop out of the final playoff spot if Minnesota wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ameter Posted February 13, 2011 Report Share Posted February 13, 2011 Need some updates to this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kehatch Posted February 15, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2011 Updated for the last set. The Flames probably deserved a better fate in Vancouver, but a regulation loss there combined with a OT loss against Anaheim kept them at 3-points the last 3-game set. Fortunately they had built them selves a buffer and are still 3-points over the pace. Part of the reason I like this approach is it keeps perspective. A number of teams are going to start using their games in hand over the next week and the Flames will likely fall out of a playoff spot regardless of how they do. Fortunately the standings today don't mean anything and as long as they stay on pace they are likely going to make the big show. Its going to be a dog fight regardless. I don't like Columbus, St. Louis, Colorado, or Edmonton to make the playoffs (and they happen to be in 12-15 spot as well). However, Columbus and St. Louis could still make a push. Outside of them Dallas, Phoenix, Calgary, LA, Chicago, Anaheim, Nashville, San Jose, and Minnesota are fighting for the final 6 spots (with only the Pacific teams eligible for number 3). I like Calgary, Phoenix, Dallas, Anaheim, Nashville, and San Jose (all teams currently in) but its tough to count out teams like LA, Chicago, and Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ameter Posted February 18, 2011 Report Share Posted February 18, 2011 bump bum bum..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kehatch Posted February 23, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2011 Flames finish this sequence with the requisite 4 of 6 points. Two solid performances against Dallas and Montreal started the sequence with wins. Unfortunately they hit a wall in Boston. The Flames had a respectable performance against. Boston had a few favorable non-calls, bounces, and some solid net tending. Not to take anything away from Boston who played well enough to win, but it was one of those games that could have went either way. The out of town scoreboard hasn't exactly been friendly to the Flames, but they had a few breaks tonight and remain in a playoff spot. Phoenix and SJ are pulling ahead of the pack while Dallas falls out of favor. They are still in the hunt point wise, but I think they are close to giving up on the season. Anything can happen, but as of now its Min, Nashville, Calgary, LA, Anaheim, and Chicago fighting for the final four spots. I like Nashville, Calgary, LA, and Chicago to make it at this point. If Anaheim turns things around I like them as well and you can't count out Minnesota who is sitting at the top of this pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iggyfan1212 Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 That loss against Boston was HUGE, and the next three we have against San Jose and St.Louis are the ones that will determine whether this team is playoff worthy or not. If we make the playoffs, which seed do you think will we be in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
returnofthejets Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 The next 20 games I'd say will make or break us. But I see your point, it's better to be in then out and trying to get back in...even if it's only a couple of points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDeeds Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 That loss against Boston was HUGE, and the next three we have against San Jose and St.Louis are the ones that will determine whether this team is playoff worthy or not. If we make the playoffs, which seed do you think will we be in? I wonder why you see it important to change the goals for the Flames in midstream, and tell us that the next 3 games are make or break. It isn't make or break. Yes they are important, but no more than the last 3 and the next three after these upcoming three. They moved your post over to this thread I suppose, in hopes you will look at the 3 game tracker and figure out we are already 3 games ahead of that "2 out of 3 goal" set at Christmas. Hopefully you can now see even if we lose the next 3 we will still be on target for making the playoffs and still need only 2 out of 3 for the remainder of the regular season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 That loss against Boston was HUGE, and the next three we have against San Jose and St.Louis are the ones that will determine whether this team is playoff worthy or not. If we make the playoffs, which seed do you think will we be in? If flames go 3-0, it should be determined the flames are playoff worthy...unless they go 0-3 in the 3 games after these 3... in which case the 3 games 6 games from now will be the determining factor, but if they go 1-1-1 over that 3 three, the determining game should be the 3 games after that, which is to clarify is games 10, 11, and 12 from now that would determine the flames playoff worthiness... if they can go 3-0 then you guys should be ok. but if they falter in those games i would then say for sure they're NOT playoff worthy... UNLESS the 3 games after THAT, they once again go 3-0... then they're boarderline.. and if they do something like 2-1 in the 3 games after that, they might just be worthy again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JA_Boomer Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 They moved your post over to this thread I suppose, in hopes you will look at the 3 game tracker and figure out we are already 3 games ahead of that "2 out of 3 goal" set at Christmas. 3 POINTS ahead of schedule, NOT 3 GAMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthHenning Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 A one goal (ignoring EN) loss to Boston basically because of a bad line change in the first 60 seconds, doesn't worry me too much. One simple mistake corrected and that could have been a point if not two. We're ahead of pace, playing great hockey, and IMHO easily in contention. Keep up the 2/3 for the rest of the season and we're in about 6th come playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ameter Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 3 POINTS ahead of schedule, NOT 3 GAMES. The simple fact that a team which was below .500 hockey is beating the goal of .670 hockey is amazing, and something to be happy about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 The simple fact that a team which was below .500 hockey is beating the goal of .670 hockey is amazing, and something to be happy about Well.... if you wanna go 3 decimal places its 0.667 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ameter Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 Well.... if you wanna go 3 decimal places its 0.667 I knew someone was going to comment. I rounded since we were beating .670 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 I knew someone was going to comment. I rounded since we were beating .670 too then drop the zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDeeds Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 3 POINTS ahead of schedule, NOT 3 GAMES. K..then how about we win 4 and only need to do .500 the rest way and still make playoffs. I could care less which 4, over and above, the 1 out of 2 we would need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JA_Boomer Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 K..then how about we win 4 and only need to do .500 the rest way and still make playoffs. I could care less which 4, over and above, the 1 out of 2 we would need. I really don't care how they do it haha. Right now we are on pace for 98 points, assuming we can go about and get 4 out of every 6 points from the next 6 3-game series, and win both games in the final 2-game series. The April schedule is not kind however, so this will be a challenge. Lucky for us the last 6 games of the regular season are spaced out nicely, giving us precious rest to go full steam for these last games and secure a playoff berth, and then continue with momentum into the post season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDeeds Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 I really don't care how they do it haha. Right now we are on pace for 98 points, assuming we can go about and get 4 out of every 6 points from the next 6 3-game series, and win both games in the final 2-game series. The April schedule is not kind however, so this will be a challenge. Lucky for us the last 6 games of the regular season are spaced out nicely, giving us precious rest to go full steam for these last games and secure a playoff berth, and then continue with momentum into the post season. Exactly. Does not matter how they do it as they are ahead of the curve, goals they set. March is a brutal month when you only look at the Flames, but if you start to look at the match ups of some of those teams we are in race for a playoff spot, then our schedule looks not so bad. Personally I think those 3 back to backs we have remaining, are far more important than the next 3 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ameter Posted February 28, 2011 Report Share Posted February 28, 2011 A loss tomorrow puts us at +2 above pace, a win back to +4. I think we're gonna see a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthHenning Posted March 1, 2011 Report Share Posted March 1, 2011 I'm going to say 2-1 for the Flames tomorrow. ANother close defensive game, but we pull out a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kehatch Posted March 1, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2011 I'm going to say 2-1 for the Flames tomorrow. ANother close defensive game, but we pull out a win. If the Flames do put up a win it should be the nail in the coffin on St. Louis. One less contender. I like our chances. If we manage to take both St. Louis and Chicago in the next two I really like our chances for the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthHenning Posted March 1, 2011 Report Share Posted March 1, 2011 If the Flames do put up a win it should be the nail in the coffin on St. Louis. One less contender. I like our chances. If we manage to take both St. Louis and Chicago in the next two I really like our chances for the playoffs. I'm sort of feeling the same way. Edmonton is mathematically out. Colorado is basically out (one loss in 19 games? I don't think this year's Nucks could pull that off in the stretch drive). One more loss for STL and they're going to have to play 0.800+ hockey to make it. Everyone else is still pretty much in it though. Take out one, fight off the other 8. We need the points, but the games tonight are going our way. Hopefully we can keep winning, and we get some outside help for the heck of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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