travel_dude
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Everything posted by travel_dude
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A young, unproven goalie is not less risky. It's about the same. Backstrom does not mess up any part of the rebuild. Developing Ortio in the NHL sounds scary to me. Starting him as a backup is less risky. Whether the starter is Backstrom or (insert random NHL starting goalie), Ortio will get enough games to evaluate him, and even allow him to steal the crease. No, I don't prescribe bringing in Backstrom. I'm not even a big fan of bringing back Ramo. Bring in a true starter and let them keep the job or Ortio steal it. Gillies could stand to have a career season in the AHL before going to him. That's probably at least 2 more years.
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Great minds think alike (or the other side of that saying). I think we need to replace the current goalie coach. Not saying our goalies' performance is tied to the existing one, but it never hurts to consider change.
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Ortio has enough games in now to be a RFA. Only Flames goalie under control come July 1st. I have no issue with playing Backstrom, as he agreed to the trade because of a promise. If Hiller gets more than the Toronto game, then I have a big problem. No point in worrying about until after the Minny game.
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A little off with the schedule, but "Surprise", the schedule is set.
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If, and that's a big if, the expansion draft is for the 2017/18 season, Gillies is not going to be a good option for an expansion team. He won't be ready. He will have only one season in the AHL. We still need a starting goalie for an NHL this season. He would be the one protected, unless he plays like crap. If, on the other hand, the expansion is delayed, then we absolutely need a starter now.
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Unless Ortio becomes a starter next season, he won't be protected. Let's face it, there are currently about 30 backups to choose from for an expansion team. They are going to pick the best one out there.
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I think he is stronger on the body than Brodie, but lacks the elite vision and puck sense. Brodie will take away the puck with finesse, while Nakladal would do it with effort and pinning the player. BTW, Nakladal isn't sheltered at home, but seems to have been on the road. By that I mean he gets more D-zone starts than O-zone. I don't see Nakladal as a top 4 on this team, though. I am fine with the Russell replacement Kevin, as he hasn't hit full stride yet. If you want to audition Nakladal in the top 4, then pair him with Broidie and put Hamilton with Gio. Alternate who gets the top assignments to see who rises to the top.
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Wideman sounds like he may have a longer term injury (upper body). Initial indications from Hartley were "not very good". So, you are likely to see somebody called up, unless Brodie is good to go Friday. The Heat play Friday, so that decision will likely happen later today. It's another emergency callup, with Brodie still not confirmed.
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I don't think I said that if he plays really well it doesn't matter. If he does that, he will likely get signed. But that doesn't make him a starter, just a good finisher. He wasn't really any better than Ramo or Hiller at any recent camps. A pre-season game is only half the picture. Regarding your PS. That is true of Ramo perhaps, but not Hiller. And it doesn't typify most NHL goalies. Maybe a goalie like Nillson. But typical goalies play more than 20 games, so 50% good to very good and 50% bad to very bad is not normal.
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His play for the entire year should be relevant, since a backup just doesn't play in February and March. Ortio has been a slow starter, so the full body of work is necessary. You have to look deeper at the starts and the goals scored in any evaluation. For instance, he had two duplicate games for SA% and number of shots; October 26th against NYI (4 GA and .886 on 35 shots - L) vs March 14th against STL (same stats exactly except it was a win). I'm not harping on him, just that he has to do better than just get wins when we have big offensive games. Would like to see him shut out the Oilers and keep to 1 GA for a few games.
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He was 0.886 with 4 GA in a win Prior was .880 and 3 GA in a loss Prior was .923 and 2 GA in a win Prior was .913 and 2 GA in an OTL Other games (losses) were .920 .800 .941 .946 .818 .806 and .886. Even with the recent good games, he is still .897 and 3.03 GAA. Having 4 GA in a 7-4 win is not inspiring. He has to improve his stats over the final games for me to have enough confidence in him going forward. Keeping below 3 per game is something that is crucial, as is stopping around 91% of the shots he does face.
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If he manages a total of 20 starts for the season and his win-loss ratio is 2-17-1 or something like that, would you sign him? That would likely see his SA% around 0.900 and his GAA around 3.0. That doesn't inspire much confidence.
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There were a few pieces done on this (one by HNIC, one by Sportsnet) that showed the differences in equipment. The width of the chest protector, the way it make the shoulders higher, the extra pieces on the trapper and blocker, etc turn a small goalie into a piece of plywood.
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Ortio has been very bad to ok to good to very good this season. If he falters in the next 10 starts (assuming he gets that many), would you still be comfortable with him as a backup for next year? I don't know myself. He should be dialed in right now, so anything less than top performance by him should be cause for concern. Not saying he will falter, but it is just as likely as him playing lights out. Probably more likely that he plays a middling set of games; good overall but eratic rebound control or 3.0 GAA/0.905 SA%. OK, but not great. What do we do then?
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I have watched the first three play very effectively. Kipper was a god in his day, but often had mediocre seasons mixed in. I don't want another Hiller that stays on his knees deep in the net. Give me a bigger guy that fills the upper part of the net, but is big enough to cover it if he goes into the butterfly. Hiller, Ramo and Ortio all get beat up high. Ortio is learning, so I give him some leeway. But only as a backup option. The other thing to note is that smaller goalies get run more. The league does a poor job of protecting goalies in that manner. Hiller and Ramo were both injured by an attacking player. You could say that the D-man knocked the player into the goalie, but I would rather see the attacking player taken off by a trainer.
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Ortio is 6'1" and 190. Pretty small compared to some of the bigger guys. Bishop, Smith, and Andersen are three huge guys. Varly and Hutch are fairly big too. The first 3 guys listed cover the net pretty well. That is what I would prefer. Smaller goalies have to be really athletic, and seem to get injured a lot. We will eventually have Gillies, so I don't want to go small now.
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I think you are looking at a stats page and thinking it's a 3-goalie system. They used two goalies until they brought up Quick and traded LaBarbera in December.
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JJ, are you suggesting re-signing Ortio and if so for what kind of deal? One year, around $1.5m? Or two years, less money? Reason I ask is because you seem to be suggesting that if he doesn't cut it, you cut him loose. Do you think he would would sign for a one year deal? I have a big problem with giving Gillies a shot this soon. Seven games of pro experience right to the NHL is a huge risk. Could easily ruin him. For one thing, he is just coming off surgery and needs time to get his game back. For another, he's still early in development. Would like to see what he does in a full season, though he could probably get a callup for injury relief. Developing the team is not just starting from scratch all the time. Johnny Hockey developed pretty well in a winning environment, because he is a competitor and hates to lose. You can see that when we get down a few goals this season, caused by a truly bad goalie. You want to see the team struggle for the sake of rinse and repeat development of "young" goalies? Goaltending is the single most important piece for the team to acquire. Without it, we are bottom 5. With it, we are likely a playoff team. Varly gets us 3 years to find a capable starter from within. Andersen probably gets us the same time, if signed for three. If Ortio or Gillies can become a starter in less time, then we have a very good problem.
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First, we would need to trade to get him, so that is a risk to start with. Then we have to actually have a starter. So, we go into the training camp with 3 goalies and keep Ortio or Nillson, whoever is the better backup. Waive the other. Possibly lose the player for nothing. If it's Nillson, then we have traded for him to get claimed. Not likely but possible. Don't worry, Ortio will sit soon enough. Backstrom will get the STL game most likely. I don't think he needs to watch any more Flames hockey from the stands. He's done that enough.
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He's kinda like Ortio. Hasn't quite put it together to be a true backup. A RFA this summer. Likely to be qualified by STL. Has played well in games where he looked unbeatable. Followed up with a meh game. On the Oilers, he had to be lights out every night or he would be considered to be the problem. He hasn't played a single game with STL yet, so hard to say what he can do behind a NHL defense. Either go Ortio or Nillson, not both.
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Starting as a backup is not an insult nor his ceiling. That is how many make the transition. Forcing him into a starting role or even projecting him there is dumb.
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Well, Varly has played a heck of a lot more games than Ortio. SA% is not that important in a small sample. Why would you think that a NHL starter would be declining at age 27? If you think that going into next season with a goalie with about 27 games as the starter, is a reasonable risk, then you are one of the few. Besides Ortio, what is your solution? Or is Ortio the only important thing to talk about here. I don't think anyone disputes his recent play or that he could become a solid backup next season. But are we really going to pin next season on Ortio and some ramdom backup from somewhere? If you agree that you build a team from the net out, then why would you have basically a rookie as your only solution? He's no Price. He hasn't played even a quarter of a season.
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Better.
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23-17-3 seems like starter numbers to me. Had a bad stretch, but still 0.914 this season. Last two seasons over 0.920. With a substandard defense, he still has had a few good season recently. Imagine what we would have looked like last season with a 0.921 SA%. Or even this season with a 0.914 over 45 games.
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It all comes down to their needs. They have a high payroll to pay for next season. They have a lot of really good young D-men. They have good forwards, but they are starting to get older and are taking up a lot of cap space. They have a few goalies buried right now, and you have to wonder if they are keeping them or not. Khudobin and Tokarski. What I can't get a read on is forward prospects. Do they need them? A replacement for Horcoff? Do they need one? I think there is a deal to be made. Maybe a vet + prospect + 2nd rounder gets it done? Or Backlund straight up?
